Seemingly armed with an elite prospect who is close to big-league-ready every season, the Dodgers continue to discover talent. Los Angeles has had success with both hitting and pitching prospects in recent years. The team has drafted and developed Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, and Andy LaRoche over the last five years. And 2006 first rounder Clayton Kershaw could still be the crown jewel of their recent prospect crop.
| Our Top 5 Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects at the end of the 2007 Season | ||||||||||
| No. | Player | |
Pos | Notes | Age | Level | ||||
| 1 | |
Clayton Kershaw | |
LHP | |
Powerful lefty with the smarts and talent to someday become a true ace | |
19 | |
AA |
| 2 | |
Andy LaRoche | |
3B | |
Patient hitter who caught fire in July but struggled other times and in the bigs | |
24 | |
MLB |
| 3 | |
Scott Elbert | |
LHP | |
Surgery cost him most of the '07 season; still has the stuff to be a No. 2-3 | |
22 | |
AA |
| 4 | |
Chin-Lung Hu | |
SS | |
Safe-bet prospect who could well become an average MLB shortstop | |
23 | |
MLB |
| 5 | |
James McDonald | |
RHP | |
High-upside righty is tall, thin, and spent two seasons as on OF in rookie ball | |
23 | |
AA |
| * Ages are as of 12/8/07 | ||||||||||
| ** Level is the highest level the player has reached | ||||||||||
| *** Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production | ||||||||||
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1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (3/19/88)
It’s not every day that a 19-year-old reaches Double-A in his first full professional season. And it’s freakish for one to go on to strike out 27.1% of the batters he faces at that level. Kershaw struck out 31.3% of the batters he took on between Low-A and Double-A last season. He walked 12.9% and generated a 44.9% ground-ball rate. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder attacks hitters with a plus fastball, mixing in his changeup and curveball about 15% and 25% of the time, respectively. He told me that he’s working on masking his changeup when I talked to him at the Futures Game. I found Kershaw to be wise well beyond his years. The seventh overall pick in 2006, Kershaw is about as good of a bet as any pitcher in the minors to go on to become a true, big-league ace. He’ll likely pick up where he left off in Double-A to open the 2008 season.
2. Andy LaRoche, 3B (9/13/83)
LaRoche’s stock has idled over the last few years. Signed for supplemental first round money out of community college in 2003 – 39th rounder – the 6-foot-1, 225-pounder has excellent strike-zone judgment and a powerful bat. He played through injuries in both shoulders in 2006, and we believe it’s likely that his surgically repaired left labrum continued to bother him near the beginning of the 2007 season. LaRoche went on an absolute power tear last July. He hit 12 of his 19 home runs that month. He’s just going to need to stay healthy and become a more consistent power threat. LaRoche is ready to help a big league ball club. An on-base and power threat, he has the potential to be a well above-average regular.
3. Scott Elbert, LHP (8/13/85)
Elbert’s season ended in mid-April when he has continuous discomfort in his throwing shoulder. He later underwent exploratory arthroscopic shoulder surgery which revealed scarring on his labrum. The 17th overall pick in 2003, Elbert has overwhelming stuff but underwhelming command of it. He has struck out 28.3% of the 1000+ batters has faced since 2005 while issuing free passes to 13.2% of them. The 6-foot-1, 210-pounder also gets a below average amount of ground balls – approximately 39.42% over the last two seasons. If his recovery goes well, Elbert could reach Triple-A before year’s end. He profiles as a potential No. 2-3 starter with a chance of shifting to the bullpen. We’re anxiously waiting to see how the Missouri native returns. He’s one of the harder prospects to get a good read on in baseball right now.
4. Chin-lung Hu, SS (2/2/84)
Hu had a brilliant year. That can’t be taken away from him. But where was this during his first three years in pro ball? The 5-foot-11, 190-pounder is listed at 150 pounds on some websites, so it’s possible that he has just matured into his frame. Still, he’s an average runner with doubles power who doesn’t walk much (5.5% in 2007). It’s hard to imagine Hu as more than a league average middle infielder, though he’s close to big-league-ready and it’s possible that he could continue to blossom in 2008.
5. James McDonald, RHP (10/19/84)
Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing in at less than 200 pounds as of the beginning of the 2007 season, McDonald has plenty of question marks around his name. The 2002 11th rounder spent his first season of pro ball as a pitcher, played outfield exclusively in his second season and primarily in his third season, and has only pitched full-time over the last two seasons. But he has been riveting since his return to the rotation. McDonald struck out 24.3% of the batters he faced in Low-A (2006) and 30.2% last year between High-A and Double-A. He doesn’t get a ton of ground balls (approximately 39.2% in 2007) but he doesn’t walk many batters (6.7% in 2007). We see the community-college product as a likely bet to move to the bullpen, but in the event he can stick it out as a starter, he has decent upside. He could be in the Dodgers’ pen or proving himself as a starter in Triple-A by next July.
Honorable Mentions:
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.