Nabbing up Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, and Mike Moustakas in 2004 through 2007, respectively, it’s hard to fault Kansas City for any of their recent first-round decisions. But the organization has little to show after the first rounds of those drafts, though Sam Runion and Danny Duffy, the team’s second and third round picks in 2007, could put an end to that dry spell. The Royals have finished over .500 just once since 1995, jolting ownership to make a fair amount of front office adjustments over the last year and a half. An offensive core of Butler, Gordon, and Moustakas could put Kansas City’s offense in the upper half of the American League. They’ll just need to hope they have enough pitching to complement that lineup.
1. Mike Moustakas, 3B (9/11/88)Among the most powerful hitters in the 2007 draft class, Moustakas went 2nd overall after putting together a huge senior season at Chatsworth (Calif.) H.S. The 6-foot, 195-pound lefthanded hitter played shortstop in high school, as his teammate Matt Dominguez, an excellent defender and the 12th overall pick in 2007, covered third. Though the Royals played Moustakas at shortstop during his pro debut, he profiles best as a third baseman. Moustakas crushed the ball in his pro debut – which was only 47 plate appearances – totaling a line-drive rate of 21% and amassing a .366 wOBA. We see Moustakas as a higher-ceiling talent than 2006 first rounder Travis Snider, who ranked 17th after his first full season on our End of the Year Top 75. Moustakas figures to open 2008 in Low-A Burlington. Almost a year older than some 2007 high school draft picks, he could move quickly.
2. Luke Hochevar, RHP (9/15/83)
Hochevar’s 2007 season didn’t go exactly according to plan. Though he appears to be on his way toward carving out a career as a solid big leaguer, teams generally hope for more than that with the No. 1 overall pick (2006). All in all, Hochevar (pictured on the right) struck out 19.9% of the batters he faced in 2007, helping him toward a 2.80 K/BB rate. The 6-foot-5, 205-pounder jumped from Double-A to Triple-A to the big leagues in 2007 and struck out significantly fewer batters at each level (22.5% in 94.0 AA innings, 18.0% in 58.0 AAA innings, and 9.3% in 12.1 MLB innings). Hochevar could earn a rotation spot with Kansas City out of Spring Training. We like him as a safe bet to become a No. 3 starter. He’ll turn 25 near the end of the 2008 season.
3. Daniel Cortes, RHP (3/4/87)
Part of the package the Royals received from the White Sox for Mike McDougal in the middle of the 2006 season, Cortes isn’t a guy who we’ve touted much. But the 6-foot-5, 205-pound former 7th rounder (2005) has put together 304.0 solid pro innings. He struck out 23.4% of the High-A batters he faced last season while walking 8.8%. But be warned that Cortes doesn't keep the ball on the ground much and he pitched in an environment that favors pitchers last year (Wilmington) – his K rate was 4.0% higher at home than on the road. Still, he misses enough bats and limits opposing hitters enough (102 hits in 123.0 innings) that he’s becoming a solid bet to pitch in the big leagues someday. Expect to see Cortes in Double-A Wichita, another park that tends to favor pitchers, next season. With another solid season, he could put himself in a position to compete for a rotation spot in 2009.
4. Danny Duffy, LHP (12/21/88)
Yes, Duffy was a 2007 3rd rounder who only threw 37.1 pro innings this year. And yes, talented lefties like him are known to be able to find success in the lower minors. But in a system that isn’t flooded with talented upper-level prospects, his performance means a lot to us. The 6-foot-2, 195-pounder completely dominated rookie ball. He totaled a 40.1% K rate to go along with 3.70 K/BB. Odds are against Duffy repeating his sensational debut. But even if he can only miss half as many bats as he did this year in a full season in Low-A next year, we’re still talking about an elite talent. If you’re in search of a high-ceiling, breakout talent, Duffy is someone to keep a close watch on.
5. Chris Lubanski, LF (3/24/85)
We saw Lubanski in the Arizona Fall League and we saw him bad. Though he offered some entertaining pre-swing rituals – not quite Nomar-esque but close – Lubanski was completely out of sync. His swing looked powerful but his mild uppercut didn’t allow his bat to comb through the strike zone for very long, which resulted in a lot of swings and misses. Seeing this, I could understand why Lubanski has been such a streaky minor leaguer – he has to be right on with his timing.
Lubanski opened 2007 with a strong April in Double-A – where he also spent all of the 2006 season – but he cooled off over the next few months. The Royals challenged him with a midseason promotion to Triple-A and he finished with an ugly .269 wOBA at that level. The 6-foot-3, 206-pound lefty didn’t find much more success in the Arizona Fall League. He was then left unprotected for the 2007 Rule-5 Draft and wasn’t selected. The 5th overall pick in 2003, Lubanski is still young enough to figure things out. He’s just raw enough and doesn’t possess a ceiling that’s high enough to entice a team to gamble a big-league roster spot on him in 2008. But this doesn’t mean the Pennsylvania native isn’t still a decent prospect. Lubanski is young enough and talented enough to still blossom into an average big leaguer or better.
Honorable Mentions:
The 66th overall pick in 2007, Sam Runion (RHP, 11/9/88) is a 6-foot-4, 220-pound righty who posted a 3.00 K/BB rate while striking out 23.5% of the 217 rookie-ball batters he faced in his pro debut. Look for Runion to join Duffy in Burlington’s 2008 rotation.Blake Wood (RHP, 8/8/85) was taken in the 3rd round of the 2006 Draft out of Georgia Tech. He didn’t start his 2007 season until July due to a back injury and he wasn’t overly impressive upon his return, but Wood lit up the Hawaii Winter League with a 37.5% K rate. Signed by the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, Julio Pimentel (RHP, 12/14/85) came over to the Royals in the trade that sent Elmer Dessens to Los Angeles. Pimentel doesn’t miss many bats – 11.5% K rate in High-A – but he doesn’t walk many batters and he gets a lot of ground balls.Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.