There are many explanations for why the Astros’ farm system is among the weakest in baseball. The simplest is that their front office continues to place little value in investing in the future, instead focusing on the present. With baseball’s biggest spenders in now allocating copious amounts of resources into their farm systems, few teams are brazen enough to take such an approach. Houston isn’t going to be able to continue to put a winning product on the field at this pace. It’s a problem.
1. J.R. Towles, C (2/11/84)
Towles managed to hit his way through High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A before ultimately finding himself in the big leagues in his third full season. One year removed from putting up a .382 wOBA in Low-A, the Community College product (20th rounder in 2004) posted a .416 wOBA in Double-A, where he spent the bulk of the 2007 season. Towles is one of the more nimble catching prospects in the game but he has also battled his share of injuries. It’s becoming clear that Towles will likely be a big league regular, though given how little time he’s spent in the upper minors, it’s hard to get a good read on him. The 6-foot-2, 195-pounder has the potential to be an above-average catcher, both offensively and defensively. Towles could find regular playing time with Houston by May, if not as the team’s Opening Day catcher.
2. Michael Bourn, LF (12/27/82)
Though he didn’t play a single minor league game in 2007, Bourn has only totaled just 119 at-bats pro at-bats so we still consider him a prospect – he was used as a backup. The speedster will enter 2008 as a 25-year-old coming off a .277/.346/.378 pro debut. Bourn hits ground balls to both sides of the infield and does a solid job managing the strike zone (0.55 BB/K since 2006). We think the 5-foot-11, 180-pounder profiles best as a fourth outfielder for a championship team, but he could become a regular who legs out enough extra-base hits to become an average big leaguer. Bourn should be in the mix for a starting outfield job in Houston entering 2008.
3. Mitch Einertson, CF (4/4/86)
A fifth round pick from 2004, Einertson followed up a forgettable 2006 season in Low-A (.279 wOBA) with a spectacular season in High-A Salem (.362 wOBA). And we’re not talking about a California League line here, Einertson did his damage in a relatively neutral ballpark and a league that favors pitchers slightly, the Carolina League. Much of Einertson’s 2007 core statistics mirror the ones that he put up in 2006. His walk (7.6% vs. 6.7%) and strikeout (15.1% vs. 16.6%) rates are similar. His isolated power didn’t rise much (.177 vs. .150). And his line-drive rate was 14% in both years. So what changed? The 5-foot-10, 178-pounder’s ability to make consistent and loud contact.
Though we don’t like to use batting average as a primary statistic to evaluate players, we believe is has some secondary value when it comes to measuring contact rates. Einertson’s was .213 in 2006 and .306 in 2007. And for judging loud contact we see batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a decent measure. Einertson’s was .234 in 2006 and .348 in 2007. Einertson also played in the Arizona Fall League and hit .260/.321/.466 in 73 at-bats there. If he can replicate the success he found last season, Einertson could quickly find himself moving up the Astros’ corner outfielder depth chart. Expect him to spend the bulk of 2008 in Double-A.
4. Max Sapp, C (2/21/88)
Selected at the tail end of the first round in 2006, Sapp has been a gap hitter who tends to hit the ball hard. But making contact has been a challenge for him (.237 lifetime minor league batting average). His career 0.55 BB/K rate (549 plate appearances) is somewhat promising given that he has only done it in the low minors. His career total of three home runs is not. Sapp is also a well-below-average runner. A lefthanded hitter, the Florida native appears to have trouble directing the ball toward right field in the air, preferring to take it to center and left. It’s hard to project Sapp as even an average big leaguer right now. His bat still has so far to go. But given how early it is in his pro career and his value as an amateur, he’s still certainly someone to keep an eye on.
5. Bud Norris, RHP (3/2/85)
Starters who strike out more than 25.0% of the batters they face while posting decent walk rates are always worth noticing. And Bud Norris has definitely put himself on the map. But due to his live fastball and height (6-foot), Norris will have to continue to pitch effectively as a starter in order to keep from tempting the Astros to try him in relief. Norris was limited to about 14 batters per start over his first 11 starts of the season. From July on (12 starts) he was allowed to face almost 24 per game. He finished the year with a combined (High-A + Low-A) 27.1% strikeout rate and 2.83 K/BB rate and had a 3.66 FIP in 96.2 Low-A innings. Norris wrapped up 2007 by logging 23.2 innings in the Hawaii Winter League, where he struck out 32.6% of the batters he faced, posted a 2.58 K/BB rate, and a 3.41 FIP. The righty has the ceiling to be a No. 3-4 starter or a solid setup man. Odds are, the decision of whether he will start or relieve will be made by the end of 2008. I think his future will be in relief.
Honorable Mentions:
For starters, it’s worth noting that the Astros traded lefty Troy Patton and third baseman Mike Costanzo in their deal to acquire Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles. Both of those players would have made the Top 5 on this list. Center fielder Joshua Flores (11/18/85) had a terrific stint in High-A (.378 wOBA) before being promoted to Double-A and slowing down big time. Polin Trinidad (11/19/84) struck out 22.3% of the batters he faced last season while only walking 5.9% between Low-A and High-A. The 6-foot-2 lefty did, however, give up 20 home runs in 157.0 innings. Selected 38th overall in 2005, right fielder Eli Iorg (3/14/83) had an excellent .363 wOBA in High-A last season. But an elbow injury limited him to just 178 plate appearances and a hamstring injury kept him out of the Hawaii Winter League.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.