The first installment of our series of top prospects by position comes from behind the dish. Blue chipper Matt Wieters serves as our headliner, but with the likes of Jeff Clement, J.R. Towles, Geovany Soto, and so on to follow, 2008 becomes one of the deeper classes of catching prospects in recent years.
1. Matt Wieters BAL (5/21/86), ETA: 2009
Matt
Wieters has had no problem distancing himself from the rest of the
field with respect to catching prospects—and he didn’t even need an
official MiLB at-bat to prove it. Taken No. 5 overall by the Orioles
this past June, Wieters made his pro debut in the Hawaii Winter
Baseball League. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder posted an impressive
.283/.364/.415 vital line (106 at-bats) given the league’s dominance by
pitchers (league average: .254/.334/.338). Wieters has the best bat of
any catching prospect on the board—both in pure hitting abilities in
power potential—making him an easy choice for No. 1 overall.
2. Jeff Clement SEA (8/21/83), ETA: 2008
After
struggling to a .257/.316/.347 vital line (245 at-bats) in his first
crack at Triple-A in 2006, Jeff Clement and his bandwagon lost their
fair share of passengers. But with a .275/.369/.497 showing (455
at-bats) at the same level in 2007—increasing his wOBA from a
lackluster .295 to a strong .366—Clement is circling the wagons once
again. While he doesn’t project to live up to the superstar potential
he showed at USC, Clement’s ability to hit for power and keen eye
(60:88 BB:K in ’07) at the plate gives him the potential to be a strong
regular at the Major League level.
3. J.R. Towles HOU (2/11/84), ETA: 2008
As
evidenced by his .324/.422/.551 vital in 216 Double-A at-bats last
season, it has become clear that J.R. Towles has the potential to hit
and hit well in the big leagues. A 6-foot-2, 190-pounder, Towles also
provided sound defense as a catcher at all MiLB levels, meaning the
Astros have no intentions of moving him off of the position anytime
soon. For the balance of the offensive and defensive abilities the
North Central (Tex.) J.C. product has shown, we expect Towles to become
an above-average catcher for the Astros lineup.
4. Geovany Soto CHC (1/20/83), ETA: 2008
Looking
at Geovany Soto's stunning .353/.424/.652 vital line from a season ago,
it’s hard not to dream about what would happen if he could produce
similar numbers at the Major League level. After a pair of
disappointing Triple-A showings in 2005 and 2006, Soto dropped 30 pounds
prior to the 2007 season in hopes of becoming a better prospect. And
after raising his OPS well over 300 points (.733 in ’06 vs. 1.066 in
’07), Soto did just that. While he will be 25 years of age with just 54
MLB at-bats under his belt when the 2008 season gets underway, the new
and improved Geovany Soto should continue hitting for the Cubs as a
Major League regular.
5. Hank Conger LAA (1/29/88), ETA: 2010
In
our closest of close debates, Hank Conger claims the rights to the No.
5 slot on this list by the slimmest of margins over Bryan Anderson.
Playing in Single-A a season ago, Conger posted an impressive
.290/.335/.469 vital line in 319 plate appearances, resulting in a .346
wOBA. Although his 373 career at-bats leaves plenty of grey area when
compared with Anderson’s sample size of 924 MiLB at-bats, Conger’s
slugging potential (35.7% XBH vs. 19.0% for Anderson last season) gives
him the edge by our narrowest degree of separation.
6. Bryan Anderson STL (12/16/86), ETA: 2009
While
a .298/.348/.388 vital line doesn’t appear to be too exciting on the
surface, the fact that Bryan Anderson was able to experience such a
degree of success at the age of 20 in Double-A speaks volumes about his
potential. Although his lack of power last season isn’t hard to miss,
you could argue that Anderson’s Single-A showing (.302/.374/.417) was
superior to Conger’s (.290/.335/.469) at the same age, depending on
your metrics of choice. Both Anderson and Conger have been scrutinized
for their defensive performances, suggesting that neither one may stick
behind the plate in the big leagues.
7. Jesus Montero NYY (11/28/89), ETA: 2011
After signing with the New York Yankees for $2 million as an international free agent in 2006, Jesus Montero entered the 2007 campaign with such a big target on his back that only a 6-foot-4, 225-pounder could support it. And support it he did. A native of Guacara, Venezuela, Montero posted a .280/.366/.421 vital line and .350 wOBA in 123 Rookie League plate appearances last season—as a 17-year-old. While his ceiling is hard to rival, the depth of this year’s catching class—paired with the long journey he still has to overcome to reach the Majors—slides Montero to the No. 7 slot on our list.
8. Devin Mesoraco CIN (6/19/89), ETA: 2011
Heralded as the total package
behind the dish—pure hitting ability, plus power, and defensive
ability—the Cincinnati Reds made Devin Mesoraco the No. 15 overall
selection in June’s draft. The 6-foot-1, 200-pounder struggled with his
Rookie League debut, posting a .219/.310/.270 vital line in his first
137 at-bats as a professional. While it wasn’t exactly the start that
the Punxsutawney (Pa.) H.S. product was hoping for, Mesoraco’s overall
potential is more than enough to land him a spot on this list.
9. Francisco Cervelli NYY (3/6/86), ETA: 2010
Posting
a .279/.383/.397 vital line in the pitcher’s paradise that is the
High-A Florida State League, Francisco Cervelli becomes the second
Yankee catching prospect to earn his way into our Top 10. While it
could easily be overlooked given his low slugging percentage, Cervelli
managed a 34.6% XBH rate a season ago—with 24 of his 28 XBH coming in
the form of doubles. Like Jesus Montero, Cervelli still has a long ways
to go to reach the big leagues, but certainly has the abilities to do
just that in due time.
10. Taylor Teagarden TEX (12/21/83), ETA: 2009
Even
though his .316/.449/.608 showing (291 at-bats) came as a 23-year-old
in the California League, it’s still hard to overlook Taylor
Teagarden’s offensive production from a season ago. After mashing his
way through High-A, the 6-foot-1, 200-pounder continued to hit in
Double-A, posting a .301/.362/.534 vital line in 103 at-bats. Although
his first Triple-A at-bat will not come until he’s 24 years of age,
Teagarden’s potential to continue hitting and his excellent defensive abilities are hard to overlook.
Honorable Mentions:
Taken No. 57 overall by the San Diego Padres this past June, Mitch Canham (SD 9/25/84, ETA: 2010) posted a solid .293/.376/.397 vital line in his pro debut in Low-A, but did so as a 22-year-old. We expect the 6-foot-2, 215-pounder to pick up his developmental pace in 2008 and beyond. Max Ramirez (TEX 10/11/84, ETA: 2010) tabbed a .304/.419/.504 vital line in High-A last season, but like Canham, will need to start advancing to higher levels at a more steady pace in the future. A 2006 first rounder, Maxwell Sapp (HOU 2/21/88, ETA: 2011) has the potential to produce far better than his .241/.327/.333 vital line from a season ago suggests in the Astros chain.
Adam Loberstein can be reached at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.