The Reds have not had a winning season since 2000 but with a core including Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn they could turn things around and do it soon with the help of one of the strongest farm systems in all of baseball. With top pitching talents in Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto on the horizon, the rotation looks to be ready to go with the veteran presence already there. The Reds also boast one of the top prospect hitting duo's in baseball with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, which could help turn things around in a hurry for Cincinnati.
1. Jay Bruce, OF (4/3/87)
After
being named the Top Prospect in the Midwest League after his 2006
campaign Bruce was sent to the Florida State League to start 2007. He
then tore through the Florida State League by hitting .325/.379/.586,
and the Reds sent him to Double-A. Bruce would only spend two weeks
there (where he hit .333/.405/.652 with 12 extra base hits) before
getting a promotion to Triple-A that was based off of an injury to a
player there, but he played so well the Reds were confident keeping him
there. As one of the youngest players in Triple-A Bruce would hit
.305/.358/.567 over about half of a season while spending most of his
time roaming centerfield. Offensively he had a combined .319/.375/.587
batting line between the three highest levels of the minors as a
20-year-old while compiling 80 extra-base hits. Though there are
questions about his eventual shift to right field, he currently plays
above-average defense in center field.
2. Homer Bailey, RHP (5/3/86)
Homer
Bailey has one of the best arms of any prospect around as he features a
fastball that sits 91-95 MPH and can touch the high 90’s with a hammer
12-6 curveball and a developing change up. He began the year in
Triple-A where he pitched 58.1 innings and allowed just 39 hits, three
home runs, and struck out 51 batters before he got the call to
Cincinnati. He had his ups and downs in Cincinnati, but his downs came
while he was injured. He slipped on a wet mound prior to his June 26th
start and strained his groin. He kept it to himself and pitched another
5 games between Cincinnati and Louisville where he had a line of 19.1
innings, 25 hits, 16 strikeouts, 18 walks and a 10.24 ERA. When you
compare that to his stats the rest of the season at the same levels
where he had a stat line of 93.1 innings, 67 hits, 71 strikeouts, 42
walks and a 2.89 ERA to go with a 1.17 WHIP, I think we can see the
major difference between what Bailey was able to do healthy compared to
what he was able to do while not healthy. He should compete for a
rotation spot in the Cincinnati rotation next season.
3. Johnny Cueto, RHP (2/15/86)
Johnny
Cueto is just 5-foot-10 tall, but do not let his size worry you. The
Dominican right hander has a fastball that sits 91-94 MPH and can touch
the upper 90’s when he really wants to. He also has a plus slider and
an above-average change up and very good command of all his pitches.
Cueto split time between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A on the year and
struck out 25% of the batters he faced while walking just 5%. The only
concern that there could be is his propensity to pitch up in the zone
at times that leads to him being a flyball pitcher.
4. Joey Votto, 1B (9/10/83)
Votto
projects to hit for average with good plate discipline as well as
moderate power for a first baseman. The Canadian hits line drives to
all fields which helps him be a complete hitter and has enough power to
hit home runs to the opposite field. Votto had an 18.8% strikeout rate
but helped even things out with a very solid 12.8% walk rate in
Triple-A. He should have the Reds first base job locked up barring a
collapse in spring training after hitting .321/.360/.548 last September
in Cincinnati.
5. Drew Stubbs, OF (10/4/84)
Stubbs was the 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft and has disappointed some with his production thus far. He has battled injuries since being drafted, including a turf toe injury that he had surgery on this off-season to fix. Stubbs has all of the tools you would ever want out of a center fielder, from his plus-plus speed, to his raw power, to his gold glove caliber defense. His bat however has been quite raw, especially for a college draftee from a major school. Through his first half of the season, Stubbs struggled at the plate, but once July rolled around he adjusted things in his swing and strived. From the time July began until the end of the season Stubbs had 250 plate appearances and he hit .303/.394/.517 with 17 doubles, 5 triples and 6 HR. Next year is a big year for Stubbs as he will be coming off a turf toe surgery and a big second half of 2007 with the hopes of continuing his hot hitting.
Honorable Mentions:
The Reds have one of the deeper and stronger systems in baseball and the depth is often overlooked due to their top 4 prospects being ranked so highly. All top 55 overall draft picks from 2007, Devin Mesoraco (C, 6/19/88), Todd Frazier (3B, 2/12/86) and Kyle Lotzkar (RHP, 10/24/89) are premium talents who will play their first full seasons next year. Travis Wood (LHP, 2/6/87) battled injuries all season but pitched very well in Instructional League and is healthy once again. Also keep an eye on Puerto Rican 2007 draft pick Neftali Soto (SS, 2/28/89).
Doug Gray can be reached at dougdirt@cinci.rr.com. You can find more of his work at redsminorleagues.com.