Colorado Rockies Top 5

Things are looking good in Colorado. Already built around youth, the Rockies have plenty more on the way. The organization doesn’t have any prospects who will likely step in and contend for Rookie of the Year honors again in 2008, but it’s brimming with high-ceiling talents and it has a good amount of depth. I typically give 10-15 players a close look for each of our Top 5s. The Rockies have over 20 prospects who I’d at least mention on a typical list. Colorado’s 2007 squad may wind up being just the first of many contenders to come out of The Rockies over the next decade.

1. Ian Stewart, 3B (4/5/85)

The 10^th overall pick in 2003, Stewart is a .295/.374/.514 career minor leaguer (2,040 at-bats) who is a solid bet to become at least an average big leaguer. If he’s shifted to second base and he gets to play his home games at Coors Field, he could easily be above-average for a while. Stewart either grounded out to the right side of the infield or crushed the ball to right field in 46.0% of his Triple-A at-bats – according to firstinning.com’s ball-in-play data. Typical of pull-hitters who are seeing big-league pitching for the first time, Stewart was overwhelmed in a brief major league call-up – 35.6% strikeout rate over 42 at-bats. It would make sense for him to again open the season in Triple-A, where he had a .358 wOBA last year. Look for the 6-foot-3, 205-pounder to hit stride in the big leagues by late-2009.

2. Franklin Morales, LHP (1/24/86)

It’s no secret that we’re extremely hesitant when it comes to getting excited about pitchers with high walk rates. Franklin Morales could have all the velocity in the word, but he’s walked 12.2% of the batters he’s faced over the last three years – successful big league starters rarely walk more than 12.0%. So Morales is going to need to learn to do a better job commanding the strike zone before he gains our true stamp of approval. That said, he has struck out 23.7% of the batters he’s faced since 2005. And though he appears to be merely an average ground-ball pitcher, he does a good job of keeping the ball in the park (11 home runs in 152.0 innings last year). Talented enough to attract attention as an outfielder and pitcher as an amateur, Morales could figure things out in the big leagues. But we think there’s a good chance that he’ll merely become a solid No. 3 with a sexy fastball.

3. Chris Nelson, SS (9/3/85)

One of six top 10 overall picks from 2004 who have yet to reach the big leagues, Nelson is coming off his best minor league stint since tearing up rookie ball immediately after being drafted. The 5-foot-11, 176-pounder is as good of a base runner as teammate Dexter Fowler, hits for far more power, and doesn’t strike out as much. Nelson has also shown steady signs of improvement in each of his past three seasons and got better as the year went on in 2007. He was an above-average hitter on the road and average at home – that’s how High-A Modesto generally plays in the California League. He’ll have to prove himself as a defender in the upper minors in order to convince Colorado that it has two potential franchise shortstops. Look for Nelson to continue to gain fanfare next season in Double-A.

4. Dexter Fowler, CF (3/22/86)

Fowler has as much upside as any hitter on this list. But he also comes with about as much uncertainty as any. A well above-average runner with a solid batting eye, Fowler underwent surgery on his right wrist after breaking it last June – pisiform bone; ran into a wall. At first glance his numbers over the last two seasons look solid – .365 wOBA in 2006, .351 in 2007 – but they’re quite padded. He played in Low-A Ashville in 2006 – a very favorable hitter’s environment – and he was in the extremely hitter friendly California League last year. His home park (Modesto) didn’t favor hitters but he benefited from playing everywhere else in the league. Fowler has the skill set to reach the big leagues as soon as late-2008. But he could also be mired in Double-A trying to prove that he can hit for some power all year long. We expect the latter.

5. Greg Reynolds, RHP (7/3/85)

I saw Reynolds pitch while he was at Stanford and walked away unimpressed. So when he was drafted 2^nd overall in 2006, I was quite surprised – to say the least. But the 6-foot-7, 225-pounder was well on his way to winning me over this year. That was until he was shut down in July with shoulder tendonitis. A ground-ball pitcher – not an extreme one...yet at least – Reynolds has only allowed three home runs through 99.1 pro innings. And batters only hit .213 when they put the ball in play against him last year in Double-A, where he struck out 18.4% of the batters he faced while only walking 4.7%. If he returns to the mound healthy, Reynolds could break out in 2008. He isn’t a good bet to become a No. 1 starter, but a future as a No. 2-3 isn’t at all out of his reach.

Honorable Mentions:

Joe Koshansky (1B, 5/26/82) is ready to hit in the big leagues, he just needs a chance. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder hits for a lot of power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot. Hector Gomez (SS, 3/5/88) completed a full season in Low-A as a 19-year-old. Though he rarely walks and is far from a polished contact hitter at this stage of his development, Gomez showed a fair amount of pop while competing in Ashville. Brandon Hynick (RHP, 3/7/85) struck out 18.3% of the High-A batters he faced last season while walking just 4.2%. He could be ready to help fill out the back of the Rockies rotation within the next few years. Colorado’s first two selections in the 2007 Draft Casey Weathers (RHP, 6/10/85) and Brian Rike (OF, 12/13/85) are both solid bets to climb up the organization’s depth charts next season. Seth Smith (RF, 9/30/82) has produced solid power numbers in each of the last two seasons and is close to big-league-ready.