2009's Top 10 Prospects

One of the great things about having a community with hundreds of prospect fans is they always keep me on my feet. When I’m eating dinner, some of them are getting into passionate discussions about what kind of prospect Kyle Russell is. Or who will be a better big leaguer: Reid Brignac or Jed Lowrie? Or who will be baseball’s Top 10 prospects entering 2009?

 

 

Fifteen members of our forum created their own Top 10s for 2009 before I even had a chance to get started on mine. Here’s a tabulation of what they came up with:

 

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Travis Snider
3. David Price
4. Matt Wieters
5. Jake McGee
6. Rick Porcello
7. Chris Marrero
8. Jason Heyward
9. Pedro Alvarez
10. Mike Moustakas

HM: Andrew McCutchen, Bill Rowell, Carlos Triunfel, Reid Brignac, Jarrod Parker, and Angel Villalona.

 

OK. Challenge accepted. Let’s give this one some thought:

 

1) Why stop at the draft when it comes to projecting David Price to be No. 1 overall? The lefty shredded through NCAA competition by overpowering hitters with excellent stuff (38.2% K) and excellent command (6.1% BB). He was clearly the best draft-eligible amateur in the country in 2007. And Despite his lack of professional experience, I think he’s more polished than Clayton Kershaw – they have similar upsides in my mind.

2) Clayton Kershaw is probably going to reach the big leagues prior to his 21^st birthday – a pretty amazing feat for a pitcher. And starters who strike out 32.4% of the batters they face are a rare breed. But minor leaguers who walk more than 10.0% of the batters they face aren’t necessarily safe bets. Kershaw walked 12.1% in Low-A (413 batters faced) and 15.9% in Double-A (107). If he doesn’t learn to command his stuff better, he may only be a No. 2 starter. Still, it’s not every day you get to say, “I don’t know…this teenager may only end up being a No. 2 starter.”

3) I swear I’m not just in a pitcher-happy mood. Travis Snider was the first guy I thought about at No. 3, but I later decided that I couldn’t hold off on Jake McGee any longer. McGee slid to the 5^th round of the 2004 Draft because he was a skinny kid with little to offer besides a good fastball. Three years later: 1) He has grown to be 6-foot-3, 245-pounds. 2) His fastball has gone from good to great. 3) His breaking balls and changeup have made massive strides. McGee struck out 30.8% of the batters he faced between High-A (470 batters faced) and Double-A (99) last year. And he only walked 8.3% in High-A – this after walking 11.6% in Low-A in 2006. At the rate he has been maturing, McGee is suddenly a solid bet to become a very good No. 2 starter.

4) The first time I saw Matt Wieters play, he wasn’t the dominant force I expected. Though his footwork behind the dish impressed me, his timing was off at the plate. But he still managed drive a ball into the opposite-field gap for a double. The next time I saw him, it wasn’t fair. The wind was blowing out at Boshamer Stadium (University of North Carolina) and Wieters hit a no-doubter over the right-center wall to go along with a two more well-struck balls – a double and a single. Wieters hit .358/.480/.592 in 218 at-bats last year with Georgia Tech. His OPS was over 1.050 in each of his three collegiate seasons. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder has the potential to be an elite hitter and stick at catcher.

5) Pedro Alvarez was a better hitter than Wieters last year. Posting a .386/.463/.684 line, the 6-foot-2, 205-pounder made himself an early favorite to go No. 1 overall in 2008 – he hit .329/.456/.675 as a freshman. The Vanderbilt third baseman has his defensive critics, but his lefthanded bat will play in the big leagues and it should be above average. A case can already be made that Alvarez has a higher offensive upside than Alex Gordon, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Zimmerman.

 

6) Travis Snider was the first high schooler J.P. Ricciardi ever used a first round draft pick on. And so far that decision seems warranted. The 5-foot-11, 245-pounder hit .313/.377/.525 in the Midwest League, and was then sent to the Arizona Fall League – despite the fact that 2007 was his first full pro season – where he hit .316/.404/.541 over 98 at-bats. Even though the Washington native is surprisingly athletic for his size, he could easily be forced into life as a designated hitter once he reaches the bigs. But his power bat – .222 isolated power through 651 pro at-bats – will shine no matter where he winds up playing.

7) A 6-foot-5, 195-pounder, Rick Porcello was widely considered the second best amateur talent available in the 2007 Draft. But bonus demands dropped him to the Tigers at 27^th overall, leaving fans of the 22 teams that passed on him from the 2^nd through 26^th pick disappointed. Along with his 96 MPH fastball, Porcello has at least a couple offerings that could wind up being above-average – according to MiLB.com. His agent tried to drive up his amateur value by comparing him to Josh Beckett. We’re not sold on the validity of that comparison, but it’s hard to argue that Porcello doesn’t have Beckett-esque upside at this point.

8) Based his amateur career and limited professional experience, there’s already reason to believe that Mike Moustakas may have a higher ceiling than Travis Snider. Drafted 2^nd overall last June, the 6-foot, 195-pounder didn’t waste any time getting acclimated pro ball – he hit .293/.383/.439 in 47 Pioneer League plate appearances. Moustakas was drafted as a shortstop and played shortstop last season, but it’s likely that he’ll eventually move to third due to his limited range. The owner of the California single season high school home-run record (he hit 24 in 97 at-bats his senior year), Moustakas is still raw enough to be far from a sure thing but his upside is among the best – if not the best – of any hitter from his draft class.

9) I asked a talent evaluator about why I should be excited about Jarrod Parker last May. Who does he compare to? He responded with, “Pick any undersized guy who throws hard...Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt.” That’s the kind up upside we’re talking about here. Parker is a 6-foot-1, 175-pounder who has multiple offerings that could grade as above-average, a smooth delivery, and can touch 97 MPH with his fastball. The 9^th overall pick last June, he didn’t sign until August 16^th and has yet to make his pro debut. But expect the Indiana native to be overwhelming Low-A hitters come the start of the 2008 season.

10) I had a chance to see Brian Matusz pitch as a freshman and he blew me away with his power fastball/curve combo. Eligible for the 2008 Draft, the 6-foot-5, 200-pounder progressed across the board his sophomore year. Matusz struck out approximately 32.1% of the batters he faced last year while walki­­­­­­­ng 7.3% – ­­­he struck out 23.4% and walked 9.8% in 2006. If the University of San Diego hurler even replicates his 2007 success, he’ll become a favorite to be drafted at or near the top of his class.

Adam Foster can't wait for 2009. You can email him at adamf@projectprospect.com.