Project Fantasy: Valuing Prospects According to League Format

January 19, 2008

It’s that time of the year again.

Spring Training is fast approaching, and that means it’s time to start strapping on the cleats for another fantasy baseball season.

For many of you prospect heads, you probably won your league last year because you were the only one who knew who the heck Ryan Braun was before the season started.

Or maybe you were the guy who saved up a waiver priority for when Tim Lincecum or Yovani Gallardo finally got the call from Triple-A. If you were, kudos. That’s why we love prospects.

But just knowing prospects isn’t enough to win leagues, you’ve got to know how to evaluate their fantasy value.

Most prospects’ values in fantasy leagues are difficult to predict because they haven’t proven anything in the majors yet. In most cases, elite prospects are the epitome of the “high risk, high reward” mantra in fantasy, meaning you should value them accordingly.

For example, don’t be the guy who jumps the gun in a redraft league and takes Colby Rasmus in the third round just because you know the name. Sure, Rasmus could end up as a 30/30 man for the Cardinals and a fantasy goldmine for your squad. But remember, he’s a prospect.

All right, mound visit. What the heck does redraft mean? Oh, just like a typical one-year league. Right.

But it doesn’t stop there.

Like prospects themselves, fantasy leagues come in all shapes and sizes. After your garden-variety redraft league, you’ve also got your menu choices between keeper, dynasty, and simulation (sim). Given the vast fantasy universe out there, there’s obviously going to be nearly infinite possibilities for how each type of league will look.

If I was somehow I was appointed the almighty commissioner of the fantasy realm though, this is how each league type would look and how prospects fit into them:

Simulation:

Looking to embrace your inner Billy Beane? Behold the sim league.

The least common and the most complex of the four formats, sim leagues are probably the closest you can get to actually managing a team. While regular fantasy leagues focus primarily on snake drafts and hitting/pitching scoring, sim leagues basically look to “simulate” the real game.

On the roster carryover front, typically 40 or more players make the trip to the following season. If that wasn’t enough for your plate, teams also manage a minor league roster of sometimes 40+ players – for simplicity, many sim leagues launch by having owners draft big-league teams rather than individual players. Hardcore enough for you? It gets better.

Arguably the most significant characteristic of sim leagues is the incorporation of defense into scoring and as a result, player evaluation.

This can be either a positive or a negative depending on the prospect, and can make for some very interesting discussions about valuing prospects.

Dynasty:

Not everyone can or wants to handle rosters big enough to populate a small farm town. If this sounds like you, take a step down the fantasy ladder and consider a dynasty league.

Like sim leaguers, dynasty owners typically keep most of their team but don’t have to worry about things like managing a bullpen and defense. One thing that does remain the same is that it’s still important that an owner maintain a team that is young and rich in talent.

Expecting Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson to stroke it out of SAFECO year in and year out is not a very safe call. Balancing a steady diet of prospects on your roster such as Adam Jones and Jeff Clement is.

Keeper:

If the idea of entire rosters being carried over has you reaching for Advil but you’d still like to be able to keep players, keeper leagues may be the way to go.

In your basic keeper league, depending on the league and the commissioner, owners keep anywhere from 3-15 players. Now the question is: How should prospects factor into decisions on who to keep?

Given a large enough allowance of keepers (at least 5), many of the elite prospects you had in their rookie years should have a place on your team next year. Letting these types of players back into the sea where other owners can scoop them up and keep for the long-term usually ends in painful regret.

Braun’s rookie year production was awesome, but the 24-year old’s keeper value is even greater because elite prospects usually share two key characteristics: they’re young, and they’ve got a ton of talent. If those two things don’t convince you he’s a keeper, you should be seeking immediate help.

Redraft:

If keeping players just isn’t your style, no worries. Just stick with your typical one-year league. Draft a team, play the season, rinse and repeat.

In these types of leagues, prospects are extremely limited in value.

This is because the time frame is just one year and most prospects are still learning the tools of the trade in their rookie season and thus will not provide significant fantasy value immediately.

For example, coming into the 2007 season, Gordon was countless prospect lists (No. 2 overall on Project Prospect’s Preseason Top 100) and a prime fantasy target in drafts. Prospects are sexy picks. But the last time I checked up on the redraft league rulebook, prospect status doesn’t award owners extra points and future production isn’t factored into the current season.

Take a guy like Casey Blake for instance. Before the 2007 season, not many people would’ve taken him over Gordon. Though his name gets few people excited, he put up a better fantasy line (.270, 18 HR, 78 RBI, 81 R) than Gordon (.247, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 14 SB) except in stolen bases.

The key here is the decade of experience Blake had on Gordon. If you’re going to draft Gordon in a one-year league, you’re clearly taking on some risk in a first-year player. With Blake, you kind of know what you’re going to get: mediocre but predictable production.

The lesson? Prospects can do great things for you in one-year leagues, but put things in perspective before automatically assuming a guy like Gordon will have more value than the Blakes of the fantasy world.

Conclusions:

We all love different types of fantasy leagues, but we’ve got to keep in mind that not all prospects are created equal in the eyes of formatting. If you’re in a long-term keeper league, pounce at the chance to stock up on elite prospects. They are fine wine that will age to stardom on your roster.

But if you’re sticking with redraft leagues and taking a chance on a prospect with big time hype, remember that for every Ryan Braun, there’s an Alex Gordon.

 

Ray Lin is done stretching for the upcoming fantasy season and ready to hit the base paths. He can be reached at raywlin@gmail.com.