Though there are plenty of capable hitters who man first base in the big leagues, prospects rarely come up and establish themselves as elite first basemen right away. But Daric Barton and Joey Votto, two big-league-ready prospects, will try to beat the odds in 2008. And Beau Mills and Chris Marrero could be trying to make a similar push in 2009.
1. Daric Barton, OAK (8/16/85), ETA: 2008
The
youngest big-league-ready player on this list, Barton is an
above-average contact hitter who knows how to draw a walk. He hasn’t be
a consistent power threat over the course of his pro career, but the
6-foot, 225-pounder’s isolated power was .292 during a 72 at-bat
September call-up in 2007 – for reference, David Ortiz’ was .289 last
season. Barton hit .290/.387/.436 in Triple-A last year (602 plate
appearances). A potential Opening Day starter, he could realistically
replicate his Triple-A line this year in the bigs. That would make him
similar to Kevin Youkilis in 2007, only Barton could match Youkilis’
production while being almost four and a half years younger.
2. Beau Mills, CLE (8/15/86), ETA: 2009
Though
Mills was a third baseman in college, he figures to make a full-time
move to first base at the professional level due to a below-average
arm. He split time between first and third after signing with the
Indians last June. The 6-foot-3, 220-pounder’s calling card is his
lefthanded, power bat. It’s hard to do much with Mills’ statistics at
this point, but it’s a promising sign that he struck out less while his
isolate power rose in each of his 2007 minor-league stops –
short-season, Low-A, and High-A, respectively. Mills played against
NAIA competition his junior year in college and only totaled 281 pro
plate appearances in 2007 (he hit .261/.337/.424 in the minors). The 13th overall pick of the 2007 Draft, Mills could be ready to punish pro pitching in 2008.
3. Chris Marrero, WAS (7/2/88), ETA: 2009
Marrero
was the second youngest player taken in the Top 20 picks of the 2006
Draft – Bill Rowell, who may someday move to first base as well, was
the youngest. A third baseman in high school, Marrero played the
outfield in 2007 and was given a crash course on playing first base
this winter – we see him sticking at first for the foreseeable future.
While Marrero has the potential to be among the elite power threats in
the game (.252 isolated power in Low-A), he’s a below-average contact
hitter who may need to walk a lot in order to get on-base at a
reasonable clip. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder could be streaky but
dominant once he reaches the upper minors. His consistency will
ultimately determine where he ranks among his peers
4. Joey Votto, CIN (9/10/83), ETA: 2008
Striking
out in 23.5% of his April at-bats, Votto didn’t get off to the blazing
Triple-A start that some of his believers envisioned last year. But he
found a way to right himself and put up some sick line-drive rates over
the rest of the year – 30% in May and 27% in August (AAA); 34% in
September (MLB). The fact that he falls this low on this list is more a
tribute to the ceilings of the hitters above him than a hack on Votto.
The 6-foot-3, 220-pounder doesn’t have as good of an on-base ceiling as
Barton or power ceiling as Mills or Marrero – Votto isn’t a good bet to
be an annual 30+ home-run threat. But all he has to do is prove that he
can walk in the big leagues and the lefthanded hitter could instantly
become a .290/.380/.480 big leaguer over the course of 500+ at-bats.
5. Lars Anderson, BOS (9/25/87), ETA: 2010
Anderson
has been a steadier but less explosive version of Marrero to date.
Though he strikes out more and has hit for less power than Marrero, the
6-foot-4, 215-pounder has the upper hand when it comes to drawing
walks. Additionally, Anderson didn’t sign soon enough to get a taste of
regular season pro ball in 2006 – like Marrero. If he can turn some of
his doubles (37 in 2007) into home runs (11 in 2007), Anderson could
see a decent power spike (.154 isolated power last year in 535
Greenville plate appearances). Look for Anderson to ride up rankings
charts this season as he fires balls through the Lancaster sky. He’s a
good bet to be high on this list next year as he tries to prove that he
can become an above-average regular.
6. Steve Pearce, PIT (4/13/83), ETA: 2008
While
we try not to become hooked on tools and draft position, sometimes they
fog our view. And despite the aid of what turned out to be a vibrantly
clear day, I hardly noticed Pearce, a former 8th rounder,
when he was right in front of me at the Futures Game. Sure he had hit
26 home runs the previous season, but he did so as a 23-year-old in the
low minors. But 31 home runs later – 20 of them between Double-A and
Triple-A – you’ve gotten our attention, Mr. Pearce. A solid contact
hitter with enough power to hit 25 home runs every 500 at-bats, Pearce
may be able to put up a .305/.365/.515 season prior to his 28th
birthday. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder just needs to prove that he can
replicate his success at the big-league level, which is a tall task and
why he isn’t higher on this list.
7. Kyle Blanks, SD (9/11/86), ETA: 2010
Barton
is arguably the best on-base threat on this list. A case can be made
that Marrero has the most power potential. There’s no doubt that Blanks
is the biggest. A 6-foot-6, 281-pounder from the 42nd round
of the 2004 Draft, Blanks claimed ownership on the California League
last season by producing a .301/.380/.540 line there. He doesn’t walk a
ton (8.5% last year) and he strikes out more than most guys (18.4%).
But his power (.239 isolated power in High-A) is eye-catching and he
moves well for a big guy. Blanks is far from a sure thing to find
success, but another year like the one he had last year and he’s a
legitimate prospect.
8. Chris Carter, OAK (12/18/86), ETA: 2010
This
is the Chris Carter who opened the year with the White Sox and played
in the South Atlantic League. His given first name is Vernon. He’s a
below-average runner who strikes out a lot, walks a lot, and hits for a
good amount of power (.231 isolated power last year). The righty was a
significantly better hitter at home than on the road last year (.453
wOBA vs. .324 wOBA). He has a lot to prove, but his power upside may
someday make him an average big-league hitter. I need more data on the
6-foot-4, 210-pound 15th rounder (2005) before I get too excited.
9. Chris Carter, BOS (9/16/82), ETA: 2008
This
is the Chris Carter who played his college ball at Stanford. His given
first name is William. He opened the year with the Diamondbacks and
played in both the Pacific Coast League and International League. He’s
a well-below-average runner who makes good contact, draws an average
amount of walks, and may only peak around 20 home runs. The lefty hits
to the opposite field just as much as he pulls the ball but a majority
of his home runs are pulled to right. I realistically see him as decent
bet to become a solid platoon first baseman or a below-average regular.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if he winds up being a little better.
10. Andrew Lambo, LAD (8/11/88), ETA: 2011
Lambo was the top prep first baseman eligible for the 2007 Draft a year ago. And he was among the first of that profile taken in June. The only thing was...that wasn’t until the 4th round. But Lambo still managed to make a statement with his bat by hitting .337/.437/.511 in rookie ball. Coveted but not an absolute rarity of a amateur, Lambo will need to continue to prove himself as he rises through the minor-league ranks. He’s going to face a lot of challenges. But so far it’s hard to debate his track record. We’ll see where we are next year. It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Honorable Mentions:
Joe Koshansky (COL, 5/26/82, ETA: 2008) has pretty much proven that he’s going to be a very good Triple-A player at the very least. A candidate to strike out over 150 times in a full season in the bigs, he hits the ball hard when he doesn’t miss it. Mike Carp (NYM, 6/30/86, ETA: 2010) wasn’t ready for Double-A last year. And as a guy who doesn’t move well, he’s going to have trouble emerging unless he finds a way to hit the ball hard more frequently. But he was a 21-year-old in Double-A. Nick Evans (NYM, 1/30/86, ETA: 2010) was a below-average hitter in Low-A (2006) and an average hitter on the road last year in High-A. But he pounded the ball at home and he draws a good amount of walks.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.