Baltimore Orioles Top 5

January 26, 2008

By trading away players like Miguel Tejada and making some solid draft showings as of late, it appears that Baltimore may finally be headed in the right direction. While Matt Wieters and Bill Rowell are the only two prospects in the system who are solid bets to become stars, the Orioles are collecting youngsters—pitchers and hitters alike—who should eventually be making contributions at Camden Yards.

1. Matt Wieters, C (5/21/86)

Anytime you get a chance to nab a hitter with the ability to draw walks and rocket shots off into orbit, you should jump on it. And if he's also a sound defensive catcher, there really isn’t much else to be said. A 6-foot-5, 230-pounder, Matt Wieters was selected No. 5 overall in the 2007 Draft—and hasn’t even needed an official MiLB plate appearance to become our top catching prospect in all of baseball. A switch hitter, Wieters impressed in the pitcher-friendly Hawaii Winter League by going .283/.364/.415 in 106 at-bats (league average: .245/.334/.338). And if you’re intrigued by the Georgia Tech product now, just wait until you see Wieters—the top college hitter in his draft class—can do next season and beyond.

2. Bill Rowell, 3B (9/10/88)

The No. 9 overall selection in the 2006 Draft, Bill Rowell was the first high school hitter taken in his class. And how the mighty have fallen—or have they? He may have been surpassed by the Travis Sniders and Chris Marreroes of the world—also from the ’06 class—but it's far too early to give up on a hitter carrying Rowell’s upside. While a .271/.335/.424 vital with a 0.30 BB/K rate isn’t exactly uplifting, it’s important to remember that the 6-foot-5, 205-pounder was competing in Low-A at just 18 years of age. Rowell is actually younger than 2007 first rounders Devin Mesoraco, Pete Kozma, Ben Revere and Wendell Fairley, and is just a day older than Mike Moustakas. The Bishop Eustace (N.J.) Prep School product has still has a long ways to go, but there’s little doubt that Rowell will rebound and then some in 2008.

3. Troy Patton, LHP (9/3/85)

He’s 6-foot-1, weighs a mere 185 pounds and doesn’t throw hard. So, naturally, Troy Patton is a starting pitching prospect worth knowing. Traded to Baltimore as a part of the Miguel Tejada deal, Patton makes up for his lackluster physical skills with great control. The Tomball (Tex.) H.S. product walked just 44 batters in 151.1 innings (6.9% BB/PA) between Double-A and Triple-A a season ago. He might not allow many walks, but Patton can’t strike anyone out, either—his strikeout rate has decreased in each of his three MiLB seasons (28.0% in ’05 vs. 14.6% in ’07). Patton is still only 22 years old, and while he may not have an overly lofty ceiling, his odds of reaching that ceiling as a potential No. 3-4 starter at the Major League level are very high.

4. Garrett Olson, LHP (10/18/83)

If a pitcher holds a cumulative WHIP of 1.13 and a stellar 3.13 K/BB rate in 348.0 career MiLB frames of work, odds are you’ve taken notice. Unless, of course, we’re talking about Garrett Olson. A product of Cal Poly, Olson’s 2007 campaign finished much like the rest of his professional seasons: great success, very little attention. The 6-foot-1, 200-pounder tabbed a 1.05 WHIP with a 3.08 K/BB clip as a 23-year-old in Triple-A a season ago, resulting in a Patton-esque BB/PA rate (7.6%) while also posting 120 strikeouts in 128 innings (23.5% K/PA). Olson did, however, get hit pretty hard and had control problems in 32.1 MLB innings last season. He only kept the ball on the ground at a 45% rate in the minors last year, but other than that, you’ll be hard pressed to find negatives about this under-the-radar lefty.

5. Scott Moore, 3B (11/17/83)

In 17.1 innings of work for the Chicago Cubs last year, 36-year-old Steve Trachsel’s 1.85 WHIP and 1.57 K/BB rate resulted in a less than uplifting 8.31 ERA. And now the Cubs would like to have Scott Moore back. A 6-foot-2, 180-pounder, Moore posted a solid .268/.374/.533 vital line in Triple-A Iowa, resulting in a strong .385 wOBA, before being dealt to Baltimore on Aug. 31. The former first rounder (Detroit ’01) went .255/.260/.362 in 47 at-bats for the Orioles to close out the season. While he strikes out at a very unhealthy rate (25.9% K/PA), the overall package that Moore brings to the plate suggests he could be ready for regular action at the Major League level next season.

Honorable Mentions:

Unlike Scott Moore, when Radhames Liz (RHP, 6/10/83) gets a strikeout it’s a good thing. While Liz’s 27.6% K/PA rate is a good, his 12.0% BB/PA rate as a 24-year-old in Double-A is not. At first glance, the .283/.352/.422 vital line that Brandon Snyder (1B, 11/23/86) posted last season isn’t overly impressive. But the 2005 first rounder started mashing near season’s end (.380/.425/.500 in July) and hasn’t ceased since—he went .378/.398/.544 as Wieters’ teammate in Hawaii this winter. Nolan Reimold (OF, 10/12/83) added 91 points to his slugging percentage this season (.255/.373/.455 in ’06 vs. .303/.361/.546 in ’07), but nearly cut his walk rate in half (15.1% BB/PA vs. 8.9%) in the process to suggest that he still has some developing to do. Chorye Spoone (RHP, 9/16/85) netted a 1.15 WHIP in mixed bag fashion—nice 65% GB rate, less than nice 1.99 K/BB rate. And commanding a $1.1 million bonus as a fifth rounder this past June, Jake Arrieta (RHP, 3/6/86) gives the Baltimore chain another solid arm to keep an eye on in 2008.



Adam Loberstein can be reached at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.