Breakout players are an interesting breed, coming seemingly from all corners of the fantasy universe.
We’ve seen our share of how they can vary: There are those veteran arms who rise from the ashes (Chris Carpenter), potential studs who go from very good to Cy Young winners (Jake Peavy), and rookie sensations who achieve fantasy glory in their first year in The Show (Yovani Gallardo).
So what’s in store for 2008? It wouldn’t be too out of the ordinary to expect break outs in the three molds I mentioned above. But what names will be filling those parenthesis the next time around?
Since it is a glorious democracy we live under, I decided to take your input and base this following list of potential breakouts on the voting you’ve been doing in our forums.
As you probably are already tired of me gushing about the Hebrew Hammer from my first column, I’ll start with the pitchers this time and talk about the potential hitting breakouts next time.
Because hey, I love pitchers too. Especially breakout ones.
I’ll start this list with the top vote-getters from the breakout pitcher thread in our forums and then descend:
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA (‘07: 3.92 ERA, 190.1 IP, 165 K, 53 BB, .340 BABIP, 2.64 GB/FB)
I’ve kneeled before the mighty King Felix many times, but his Highness has yet to fully reach fantasy royalty and 2008 may be the year he finally does.
I’ve long believed that his pitching repertoire rivals anyone in the American League, including Johan Santana. How many 21-year-olds do you know who are armed with a 98-MPH heater, low-90s slider, hammer curve, and deceptive changeup?
Hernandez is obviously still growing up. But he’s approaching a level of maturity that could propel him toward that Cy Young-worthy fantasy season you’ve been waiting for.
One of the King’s fatal flaws last year was his over-reliance on the heater. He’d have stretches where it’d seem like he was almost uncomfortable going to his superb breaking stuff and the hit parade would keep marching on.
In 2008, he’ll be one year smarter and should grow to really be comfortable and confident in his stuff. He already does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and leaving things up to his infielders – the Mariners have arguably the best defensive left side in the AL with Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Betancourt. What’s more, with a little added command, Hernandez could improve on his already awesome – for a ground-ball pitcher – 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Hernandez’ particularly high 2007 BABIP (.337) tells us that the law of averages could be on his side this year, further making his breakout case. We’re talking about Brandon Webb on spinach here. The reign could begin in 2008.
2. Zack Greinke, KC (‘07: 3.69 ERA, 122.0 IP, 106 K, 36 BB, .325 BABIP, 1.17 GB/FB)
A fog of personal, psychological issues clouded the real Zack Greinke last year: a great young pitcher with tremendous talent.
Back in 2004, Greinke burst onto the scene with a rock solid rookie campaign (8-11, 3.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 100/26 K/BB) and caught the attention of the fantasy world.
In 2005, he buckled under the pressure of an encore as his ERA ballooned to 5.80 while he lost 17 games. Greinke pitched in just one game for the Royals in 2006 before taking a leave of absence due to social anxiety disorder.
He returned in 2007 and started out in the Royal rotation, where he struggled. Greinke was moved into the bullpen for the greater part of the season and thrived.
He made his way back into the rotation toward the end of August and was excellent the rest of the way, posting a 2.51 ERA in seven starts to go with a fantastic 40/13 K/BB ratio.
When he’s on, Greinke, who now works with a fastball in the mid-90s - as a starter, is an excellent fantasy contributor in both ratio categories who puts up solid strikeout totals. He should at least be able to keep pace with Ted Lilly in 2008. Now is the time to try to get the 24-year-old on your roster – especially in keeper leagues.
3. Dustin McGowan, TOR ('07: 4.08 ERA, 169.2 IP, 144 K, 61 BB, .278 BABIP, 1.71 GB/FB)
A classic case of having the stuff and not the results, the front-of-the-rotation version of McGowan finally showed in 2007.
After failing to keep his ERA below six in his first two years with the Jays, McGowan trimmed it down to almost below the 4-mark last year while significantly improving his K/BB ratio. And by virtue of throwing more innings alone, the 25-year-old could reach the 175-K mark in 2008.
Still, the 6-foot-3, 220-pounder will have his work cut out for him if he is to be a reliable, top-tier fantasy pitcher. It will be interesting to see if he can repeat his .278 BABIP from last year. Few pitchers are able to sustain that kind of success on balls in play annually.
Look for McGowan to offer the kind of fantasy production that will allow him to step up to the elite tier of fantasy starters. Due to his solid ground-ball tendencies, he has the potential to be a bigger impact starter than Justin Verlander.
4. Jeremy Bonderman, DET ('07: 5.01 ERA, 174.1 IP, 145 K, 48 BB, .329 BABIP, 1.39 GB/FB)
The man who once turned Billy Beane into a raging, chair-heaving maniac also made many owners go nuts last year – and it’s best if we keep insanity to a minimum in all leagues. But 2008 could be the year of the Bonderman.
It’s probably a bit strange to see a pitcher on this list who has cracked the 200-strikeout mark before. But a mere bounceback from a less-than-stellar 2007 second half could turn into the 26-year-old’s true breakout year.
Despite unraveling in August and September, Bonderman managed to improve upon his career walk rate. But he also allowed 20+ jacks for the fourth time in five seasons – though seven of his 23 home runs came in his final eight starts, when it appears he was pitching hurt.
I also expect Bonderman’s BABIP to go down now that the team has Edgar Renteria at shortstop rather than Carlos Guillen.
Speaking of new Tiger additions, Detroit will boast one of the best lineups in the AL, so I think within reasonable expectations Bonderman should be able to win at least 15 games.
The terrible 2007 has probably bumped Bonderman out of top-10 round consideration in most leagues, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if his end-of-the-year value far surpasses that of many of the players who are selected ahead of him.
5. Ubaldo Jimenez , COL ('07: 4.28 ERA, 82 IP, 68 K, 37 BB, .269 BABIP, 1.26 GB/FB)
My wild-card pick for the fifth starter spot on this hypothetical rotation of breakout arms, Jimenez was in a three-way tie along with Matt Garza and Jeff Francis in the community breakout pitcher thread.
I’ll take the opportunity here to drop an anecdote on you because I know you’re all anxious to hear some saucy details from my personal, fantasy life:
In my 12-team, rotisserie keeper league last year, the fate of the top three spots was decided by less than five fantasy points and boiled down to the final days of the season.I started the week in third place and a good seven points behind the first place team. Identifying a few pitching categories as my chance to make my push, I picked up a young, hard-throwing rookie on the final day of the season. Ubaldo Jimenez.
Just to refresh your memory, Jimenez went 6 1/3 innings strong while striking out 10 Diamondbacks. He helped me to fall just 1.5 points short of the league crown – better than I would have done without him.What Jimenez went on to show us during the Rockies’ World Series run (2.25 ERA, 16.0 IP, 13 K) is that he has big fantasy potential in 2008.
While Franklin Morales may be Colorado’s best pitching prospect in the long-term, Jimenez showed us that he can contribute now and the results could help fantasy owners cash in. Like the Rockies did as a team in 2007, look out for a possible Jimenez breakout in 2008.
Ray
Lin is going to try to anchor his fantasy staff with a rotation like
the one above in as many leagues as possible. While he works on that,
he can be reached at raywlin@gmail.com.