Boston Red Sox Top 5

January 31, 2008

It’s not fair. Already owners of arguably the best big-league team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox have one of the top farm systems as well. I plucked out 15 prospects in this organization who I’d consider as Top-5 candidates for more than a handful of other organizations. And we’re largely talking about one high-upside guy after another here. Excuse me if I sound like a Red Sox homer – rest assured I’ve never been to Fenway or donned any Red Sox merchandise. This is just a franchise that could probably run a Rookie of the Year candidate out every year for the next five – given it’s current depth alone – if it wanted to.


1. Clay Buchholz, RHP (8/14/84)

Buchholz was good during his first two seasons of pro ball, but he took his game to a new level last season. Much of the 6-foot-3, 190-pounder’s success can be attributed to a jump in strikeout rate – 29.7% in 2006 to 33.0% in 2007. He was also able to induce softer contact last season than the year before – .284 slugging against vs. .327. Equipped with an overpowering arsenal, Buchholz describes his pitching approach as a little bit power and a little bit finesse. As of the All-Star Break, he said he was throwing about 50% fastballs, 20% changeups, 20% curveballs, and 10% sliders. Because he has proven himself as a starter in both the minor and major leagues, we view Buchholz as the top pitching prospect in baseball. He’s a very good bet to become a front-of-the-rotation starter on a playoff-caliber team.


2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (9/11/83)

When I first saw Ellsbury play defense, he reminded me of Carlos Beltran. He moves so fluidly...it’s as if the upper half of his body just floats around the diamond. I believe that Ellsbury’s ability to control his movements so precisely is what fuels his two biggest strengths: 1) He’s a fast, efficient runner 2) He’s good at making contact (.319 batting average in the upper minors). But Ellsbury isn’t flawless. Though he doesn’t strike out much (11.3% last season), his walk rate is merely average. And his power is below-average (.112 isolated power last season). Ellsbury is polished and ready to take on a big-league job. He’ll be hard pressed to come close to replicating his .361/.390/.536 September line (105 MLB PA) over a full season, but something close to the .298/.359/.380 he hit in Triple-A (403 PA) is easily within reach.


3. Justin Masterson, RHP (3/22/85)

Masterson may be the best ground-ball pitcher in the minors. Though it’s still hard to get a clear read on his upside – trying to make sense of a ground-ball pitcher in Lancaster is dizzying – last season the San Diego State product proved he can keep the ball in the strike zone (6.2% BB), get a lot of ground balls (66% in Double-A), and limit balls from leaving the yard (8 HR in 153.7 IP). Pair those skills with the potential to be an above-average strikeout pitcher (24.7% K in AA) and you’re looking at another Red Sox prospect with top-of-the-rotation potential. It’s still too early to be overly optimistic, though. Masterson missed time at the end of last season due to a calf strain, and he has less than 200.0 pro innings under his belt. Expect the 6-foot-6, 250-pounder to spend time in Double and Triple-A this year as he tries to build a case for a September call-up.


4. Michael Bowden, RHP (9/9/86)

Lancaster is supposed to give pitchers fits. One of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minors, the Red Sox High-A affiliate is the crown offensive venue in the hitter-friendly California League. But something wasn’t right when Michael Bowden took on the California League. He was too good. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder allowed just one home run, eight walks, and seven earned runs in 46.0 High-A innings. And he struck out 46 batters all the while. Double-A posed a much larger challenge for the 2005 supplemental first rounder. When Bowden didn’t strike out Eastern League hitters they took him for extra bases more than he’d ever experienced – he allowed 22 doubles, 7 triples, and 9 home runs in 96.2 innings. Though Bowden got better as he gained more Double-A experience, we’re not confident in his ability to be more than a No. 3 starter. But that’s not a bad profile to have at all.


5. Lars Anderson, 1B (9/25/87)

Anderson ’s first full season may have just been the tip of the iceberg as far as what he’s capable of. Not that there’s anything wrong with a .289/.386/.443 full-season debut (Low-A). The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder has the rare ability to hit for power – he stroked 37 doubles and 11 home runs in 495 at-bats last year – and manage the strike zone (13.5% BB in Greenville). Signed for supplemental first round money in 2006, we believe that Anderson has the skill set to make strides this season. Look for him to put up eye-popping numbers in High-A Lancaster and possibly earn a mid-season promotion to Double-A, where he’ll have a fair amount of adjustments to make. Yes, he’s still quite raw, but Anderson has the potential to be an above-average big league hitter.


Honorable Mentions : Jed Lowrie (SS, 4/17/84) proved that he can hit for average and power – though not necessary home-run power – as well as draw a walk last season in Double-A. He’ll likely look to prove he can replicate that success this year – and that he has enough range to stick at shortstop – over a full season in Triple-A. Signed for second-round money in 2006, Ryan Kalish (CF, 3/28/88) flashed his massive upside in short-season ball last year. He could elevate himself to elite-prospect status this year in full-season ball. Kalish’s Lowell teammate, Oscar Tejeda (SS, 12/26/89) should be one of the youngest players in Low-A this year. He’s a high-upside talent who may be ready to break out. Brandon Moss (RF, 9/16/83) doesn’t figure to be anything more than an average big leaguer. But he has progressed through the minors at a decent pace and is coming off a solid Triple-A showing.


Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.