I’ve had my hits and misses when it comes to fantasy baseball. I tend to do well in keeper formats and only slightly above-average in redraft leagues. In order to be more competitive in redraft leagues, I’m trying to improve my ability to identify mid to late-20s breakout players. You know, guys like James Shields, Russell Martin, and Chris Carpenter.
Well, I took on an expansion team in a dynasty league this winter. My challenge is to build a contender in a league where 240 of the best players in baseball were protected from me – this includes many of the game’s top prospects.
Given that I want to compete soon, I decided this would be a perfect opportunity for me to really educate myself on mid to late-20s breakout guys.
My expansion draft is complete. So now I can let you in on some players who I could see absolutely busting out in 2008. In order to shed plenty of light on why I believe in these “relative unknowns”, I’m going to devote a column to each player I nominate as a bustout candidate.
Bustout Candidate number one: Jason Kubel.
Kubel’s 2007 vital line was only a notch or so above replacement level. He hit .273/.335/.450 as a 25-year-old. But he batted .303/.379/.511 after the All-Star Break (roughly 200 plate appearances).
Let me guess, you aren’t foolish enough to put a ton of stock into a couple hundred plate appearances? I completely understand. But how about a couple thousand?
OK? Let’s do it.
I’m going to brief you on Jason James Kubel’s entire professional career and why I think he’s going to bust out in 2008.
2000-2002: Age 17 through 20
Our friends at Baseball America acknowledged Kubel as a preseason third-team High School All-American in 2000 and noted that he had an offer to play for Long Beach State. So, for starters, we’re talking about a pretty elite amateur, though Kubel wound up slipping to the 12th round of the 2000 Draft – I don’t know what kind of role signability played into where he was selected.
The Palmdale, Calif. native spent his first two pro seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He hit really well his second time through (.331/.422/.500 in 124 at-bats). Solidifying his prospect status, the 5-foot-11, 190-pounder batted .321/.380/.521 with 17 home runs the following year in the Midwest League (424 at-bats).
2003-2004: Age 21 through 22
Kubel didn’t get along well with the Florida State League in 2003. It completely sapped his power – five home runs in 420 at-bats. He finished the year with a .298/.361/.400 vital line.
But the lefthanded hitter more than rebounded the following season, shredding through Double-A (.377/.453/.667) then Triple-A (.343/.398/.560) – he even did some damage in a big-league callup (.300/.358/.433). The Twins decided to send Kubel to the Arizona Fall League.
That’s when things took a turn for the worst.
Kubel got into a nasty collision with the Tigers’ Ryan Raburn during his first AFL game. The Twins’ outfielder was left with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and additional damage in his left knee – we’re talking about the kind of injury that could easily end a running back’s career. Minnesota General Manager Terry Ryan described the injury to MLB.com shortly after it occurred:
“It’s a bad deal,” Ryan said. “It’s going to be a long ordeal. It’s a shame. This is a serious injury. I feel bad for Jason.”
Though it was immediately apparent that Kubel’s knee would need to be surgically repaired, he wasn’t operated on for more than a month after he sustained to injury due to swelling and limited range of motion – typical with this type of injury.
2005-2007: Age 23 through 25
As an indication of how severe his injury actually was, Kubel did not play in a single regular-season game in 2005.
Nonetheless, Baseball America ranked him as the 17th-best prospect in baseball entering the year – just behind Prince Fielder...ahead of Jeremy Hermida, Nick Swisher, and Ryan Howard.
On January 28th, 2006, approximately 15 months after his AFL collision, Kubel was finally cleared to practice without a brace – athletes can typically return from a torn ACL in 6-9 months. But as the year progressed, I believe it was obvious that Kubel was still far from being back to full speed.
Kubel hit into a double play once every 51.4 at-bats prior to his injury. He hit into a double play every 18.9 at-bats in 2006.
The 23-year-old wound up hitting .283/.343/.475 that year in Triple-A and .241/.279/.386 in the big leagues.
So how did his double-play rate change in 2007? Answer: It got a lot closer to his pre-injury level – once every 46.4 at-bats.
His other significant change from the previous season was that his line-drive rate went up from 17% to 22%. These two factors helped lead to the following improvements in Kubel’s MLB vital line from 2006 to 2007: +.32/+.58/+.64.
Labeled as a poor man’s Brian Giles every year from 2003-2005 by Baseball America, Kubel pretty much matched Giles, 36, in offensive production last season – .785 OPS vs. .777 OPS or .335 wOBA vs. .337.
What to expect in 2008 and beyond
Giles’ OPS floated above or around 1.000 in his first four full seasons (age 28-31). Will Kubel be able match what Giles did in his prime?
That’s asking a lot out of the young left fielder/DH.
Roughly 27% of Kubel’s at-bats came as a DH last season. The Twins now have Delmon Young, Craig Monroe, Michael Cuddyer, and Carlos Gomez to patrol the outfield, so Kubel is expected to become the team’s designated hitter. He didn’t hit lefties well last season and will need to improve against them in order to play every day – appeared in 128 of the Twins’ games last year (79.0% of 162).
Owning power to clear fences in center and right field, Kubel distributed the ball all over the outfield last season. He’s at his best when he’s hitting line drives – something he’s very skilled at – opposed to home runs. For this reason, Kubel may not ever develop into a 30 home-run guy but he could easily rank among the league leaders in doubles.
Given his minor-league success and the magnitude of his knee injury three years ago, I think it’s well within reason to expect Kubel to continue to improve in 2008.
He made substantial strides across the board in 2007 – power, walk rate, strikeout rate, line-drive rate. And despite the small sample size and high line-drive rates, I think his second half was a sign of things to come. It’s possible that he could even improve on that second-half success over a full season.
If Kubel simply improves as much as he did from 2006 to 2007 – reasonable for a player his age...he turns 26 this May – he could be in store for season around .305/.393/.514 with 18 home runs, 40 doubles, and seven stolen bases over the course of 550 at-bats. That kind of progress alone would make him nearly as valuable as Derrek Lee was at the plate last season.
But I think his knee injury was catastrophic enough that it may have still hampered him last season. He could be a lot more explosive as he regains comfort putting torque on it. Kubel’s left leg is his pivot leg. Try getting your hips through the ball without putting significant torque on your back knee – not to mention rounding the bases and making sharp cuts on defense.
As someone who had a strong feel for the pulse of Kubel’s 2004 breakout campaign in the minors, I could see him emerging as one of the league’s top contact hitters. I think his 2007 second half may have merely been the beginning of his breakout. The optimist in me sees a .330/.420/.535 season with 25 home runs, 46 doubles, and 10 stolen bases within the realm of possibilities.
And that could win you your fantasy league.