1. Matt Antonelli, SD (4/8/85), ETA: 2008
As far as second base prospects go there’s Matt Antonelli and then there’s basically everyone else. The Wake Forest product is an excellent all-around hitter and a good athlete. Drafted 17th overall in 2006, Antonelli impressed us with his smooth ascent to Double-A in his first full season. He put up .182 isolate power scores at both High-A (406 PA) and Double-A (223) while walking 13.2% of his trips to the plate and striking out 14.9% – .388 combined wOBA. There’s some talk that he may move to center field, where the Padres could possibly get him in the lineup in 2008. Antonelli may never be a superstar but he had a great amateur track record and has lived up to it as a pro. Expect him to be a big-league regular by early-2009 at the latest.
2. German Duran, TEX (8/3/84), ETA: 2008
Duran actually has a pretty interesting story. A freshman All-American for Texas Christian in 2004, he then transferred to junior college and entered the 2005 Draft. Born in Mexico, the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder has made substantial strides each season since the Rangers drafted him 189th overall. He hit .299/.349/.524 with 22 home runs in 481 at-bats last year in Double-A. We had him as our No. 4 second base prospect back in the beginning of July. Duran doesn’t walk much (6.4%) but his strikeout rate is a bit above average (14.7%). He’s right around average in my speed score and isn’t much of a base stealer. Right now, it’s hard to bet against Duran continuing to grow as a player. He has the potential to be an above-average offensive second baseman.
3. Adrian Cardenas, PHI (10/10/87), ETA: 2010
Cardenas still has a lot to prove before we consider him a good bet to be an average big leaguer. But he’s wise beyond his years and his power is promising. One key thing to note with him is that he played his home games in one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in the minors last season – Low-A Lakewood. He had a .313 wOBA at home and .357 on the road. The 37th pick of the 2006 Draft, Cardenas is a solid contact hitter who had his share of extra-base hits last season – 30 doubles, 2 triples, and 9 home runs in 499 at-bats. He’ll likely spend the bulk of 2008 in High-A Clearwater – a much more favorable hitter’s environment than Lakewood. But the rest of the Florida State League isn’t very friendly to hitters. So Cardenas may not appear to be producing like an elite prospect until he reaches Double-A. Phillies hitters don’t have an easy path to the majors. After meeting Cardenas, I believe he has the sense of humor and mental resiliency to persevere and eventually reach the big leagues as a starting second baseman.
4. Tony Thomas, CHC (7/10/86), ETA: 2009
When I went to see Florida State University play last year, I had no idea who Tony Thomas was. That didn’t last long. Thomas blew me away with his power. It was almost shocking to see the ball explode off the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s aluminum bat. He hit .430/.522/.733 with 11 home runs (258 at-bats) and 31 stolen bases (86.1% success) his junior year with FSU, prompting the Cubs to take him with the 97th pick (3rd round) of the 2007 Draft. Thomas then hit .296/.393/.533 between rookie-ball and short-season. The main reason he didn’t go higher in the draft was because he totally broke out as a junior – wasn’t much above average at the plate in his first two collegiate seasons. Amateur second basemen generally aren’t too attractive as pro prospects, either. But Thomas has the offensive skill set to continue to progress. He’ll likely open the year in High-A and could move to Double-A. There’s a good chance that 2008 could be Thomas’ official breakout. Just don’t put yourself in a position where you’re utterly disappointed if he doesn’t wind up shredding through the minors.
5. Nick Noonan, SF (5/4/89), ETA: 2011
The 32nd overall pick of the 2007 Draft, Noonan strikes me as an abnormally safe bet to become a steady rising second-base prospect. Though he only had a 5.4% walk rating during his 224 PA stint in rookie-ball, he only struck out 8.9% of the time – most elite prospect have a strikeout rate around 18.0%. A lefthanded hitter out of San Diego, Calif., Noonan also stole 18 bases in 21 attempts. The 6-foot, 180-pounder will likely spend all of 2008 playing in the heat of Low-A Augusta. He may not have quite as much power as Cardenas, but he should be able to use his speed to leg out more doubles and show more range on defense.
6. Jayson Nix, COL (8/26/82), ETA: 2008
Ah, the allure of a polished minor league product who could win a starting job for the Rockies. Don’t get too caught up in it. Six years removed from being drafted (44th pick of 2001), Nix – yes, this is Laynce’s brother – is finally on the cusp of reaching the big leagues. So why isn’t he higher on our list? He has really only had two full seasons where he was a solid hitter – once in the California League and then last year as a second-year player in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League with Colorado Spings – hitter’s park. So what if he has only had significant success in hitter-friendly venues, that shouldn’t change in the big leagues. No, probably not. But Nix’s power likey won’t surface immediately and he doesn’t walk much (6.6% last season). Odds are Nix would be a streaky big leaguer for Colorado next season. Still, he’s capable of being a league-average second baseman and a solid fantasy asset – 24 stolen bases last season, though only at a 75.0% success rate.
7. Chris Coghlan, FLA (6/18/85), ETA: 2009
Those who aren’t familiar with how hitter-friendly Greensboro is may think Coghlan is a demi-god. Check again. He hit .369/.452/.625 at home vs. .276/.384/.434 on the road while he was in Low-A. Add to that his screeching-halt performance in High-A and that he’s a college product (Mississippi) who has spent the bulk of his pro career in the lower minors and it’s hard to get too excited just yet. But Coghlan was the 36th pick of the 2006 Draft. He has a decent amount of power, and his line-drive rate didn’t drop enough from Low-A to High-A to warrant a .133-point dip in batting average on balls in play. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound lefthanded hitter should spend a good chunk of the 2008 season in Double-A. His prospect stock will be largely dependent on how he fares there.
8. Jarrett Hoffpauir, STL (6/18/83), ETA: 2008
It’s highly unlikely that Hoffpauir will ever develop into an all-star or an above-average fantasy second baseman. He is, however, a decent bet to find a starting job somewhere within the next couple seasons. A good contact hitter without much speed or power, Hoffpauir walked 11.9% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 8.5% between Double-A (237 PA) and Triple-A (224) last season. The Cardinals have a decent amount of depth as far as middle infielders go in the big leagues so Hoffpauir could see more time in Triple-A and likely earn a call-up at some point in 2008.
9. John Tolisano, TOR (10/7/88), ETA: 2011
I asked a talent evaluator why Tolisano, who has essentially been a pro prospect ever since the age of 14, wasn’t getting more rave reviews heading into the 2007 Draft. His response, “That kid was a better prospect as a high-school sophomore than he is as a senior.” I never heard Tolisano mentioned as a potential first rounder, but his pro debut was more impressive than a lot of prep hitters who were drafted ahead of him – Tolisano was selected 85th overall (2nd round) in 2007. The 5-foot-11, 179-pounder’s ability to make consistent contact is a significant concern (.240 batting average, 10% line-drive rate, 19.0% K-rate). His power is not. Tolisano had an isolated power of .192 in the Gulf Coast League – 5 doubles and 10 home runs in 183 at-bats. Though full-season ball could pose quite a challenge for the Florida product, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.
10. Scott Sizemore, DET (1/4/85), ETA: 2009
A 2006 5th rounder out of Virginia Commonwealth, Sizemore played in Low-A and the Arizona Fall League last year. He was a great hitter at home and easily below-average on the road – Midwest League. He offers pretty limited power but defense that was good enough to earn him some time at shortstop in the AFL. Drawing walks was one of Sizemore’s biggest strengths in Low-A 13.9%. And he only struck out 11.3% of the time. Based on his AFL showing and his plate approach, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Sizemore reach Double-A by the end of the 2008 season. It’s just hard to think of him as more than a utility man at this point.
Honorable Mentions:
Soon to be 26, Craig Stansberry (SD, 3/8/82, ETA: 2008), more than held his own in the Pacific Coast League last season (.354 wOBA). He walks a lot and has a bit of pop. Expect him to contribute on some form or another with San Diego next season. Chris Valaika (CIN, 8/14/85, ETA: 2010) was one of the best hitters in the Big West a few years ago. His pro career was going great until he hit a speed bump in High-A last year – power outage. He may have trouble ascending through the minors with his sub-6.0% walk rate. Travis Denker (SF, 8/5/85, ETA: 2010) was solid last year but he was in the California League. He’ll have to make some significant improvements this year in order to replicate his success with Double-A Connecticut.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.