One of the most celebrated positions in all of baseball, shortstop typically has more than a couple prospects worth getting excited about. And this year is no different. The 2008 class offers a unique mix of easy-to-project, polished types—mainly in Reid Brignac, Jed Lowrie and Chin Lung Hu–as well as high-ceiling, further-off types—like Carlos Triunfel, Elvis Andrus, Esmailyn Gonzalez and Co. Given this kind of balance, following shortstop prospects in 2008 should once again be full of excitement.
1. Reid Brignac, TB (1/16/86); ETA: 2008
What
a difference a year makes. A second round pick in the 2004 Draft, Reid
Brignac posted a .264/.319/.416 vital line in 2005 before going
.260/.327/.433 in 2007. The year 2006, however, was much kinder to
Brignac, as the 6-foot-3, 180-pounder tabbed a stellar .321/.376/.539
line between High-A and Double-A. While the 2006 campaign may have put
him on the map, you shouldn’t be navigating away from Brignac because
of his 2007 showing. The St. Amant, La. native’s line drive rate from
’06 stayed true to form in '07, while his BABIP tanked from .395 to
.288. Though he was in the hitter-friendly California League in '06,
there's still reason to believe that Brignac was a bit unlucky last
season. He still holds the skills and power potential to become an
above-average shortstop at the Major League level.
2. Carlos Triunfel, SEA (2/27/90); ETA: 2011
What
were you doing as a 17-year-old? Playing high school baseball? Getting
your first part-time job? Carlos Truinfel didn’t have the same
experience—he
was too busy going .288/.330/.356 in the High-A California League. A
5-foot-11, 175-pounder, Triunfel signed with the Mariners for $1.3 million
out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. While having 224 High-A plate
appearances to your credit before age 18 is impressive, hitting zero
home runs there is not—he
hasn’t hit a homer in any of his 402 professional plate appearances (13
Rookie League, 165 Low-A). His lack of power potential may be a cause
for concern—as well as his 4.2% BB rate—but there’s little else working against the stock of this talented youngster.
3. Jed Lowrie, BOS (4/17/84); ETA: 2008
He
may not have the highest ceiling on this list of shortstops, but Jed
Lowrie’s odds of reaching that ceiling are about as high as any. The
No. 45 overall pick out of Stanford in 2005, Lowrie impressed to the
tune of a .298/.393/.503 vital between Double-A and Triple-A last
season. The 6-foot, 180-pounder posted a strong .205 IsoP and 77:91
BB:K rates between the two levels, but saw a dramatic drop off in his
ability to take a walk in his 177 Triple-A plate appearances (16.4% BB
vs. 6.8%). If Lowrie’s walk rate can return to form back in Pawtucket
this season—and prove that he has the range to stick at short—then his
power-patience combo could help him become an above-average big
leaguer.
4. Elvis Andrus, TEX (8/26/88); ETA: 2010
If
you could read Elvis Andrus’ mind, his thoughts on the 2007 season
would probably sound something like, “Carolina stinks, but California
is nice.” After being dealt to the Texas Rangers as a key component of
the Mark Teixeira trade,
Andrus was given the opportunity to enjoy California’s version of
High-A. He posted .294/.361/.367 vital in 122 plate appearances in
Bakersfield, improving upon his .244/.328/.335 line in 439 Myrtle
Beach appearances prior to the trade. While he’s slugged just .358 in
1,117 MiLB at-bats, Andrus’ was just 18 years of age when he started
his second year of full-season ball. His growing ability to find the
base paths and speed to do damage once he’s aboard means that Andrus
will be an intriguing one to watch once again come 2008.
5. Esmailyn Gonzalez, WSH (9/21/89); ETA: 2011
When the Washington Nationals signed a 16-year-old kid to a $1.4-million deal,
it's safe to say that expectations were soaring plenty high.
Fortunately for the Washington brass, Esmailyn Gonzalez was ready to
meet the challenge. In his first season as a professional, the
5-foot-11, 175-pounder put up a .245/.382/.311 vital line in 131 Rookie
League plate appearances. While that overall package may not impress at
first glance, Gonzalez did show patience well beyond his years, posting
strong 18:17 BB:K rate. He may be a bit rough around the edges—just as any teen sensation in his situation would be—but
Gonzalez's upside and youthful display of plate discipline are just two
of the many reasons to keep an eye on him next season and beyond.
6. Chin Lung Hu, LAD (2/2/84); ETA: 2008
It’s
plenty safe to call the 2007 season Chin Ling Hu’s official breakout
campaign. After going a meager .254/.318/.334 in Double-A in 2006, Hu
posted a solid .325/.364/.507 vital line between Double-A and Triple-A
a season ago. The 5-foot-11 Hu
also has bulked up to a 190 pounds—his playing weight in 2006 was close
150 pounds. While there are plenty of positives surrounding the Tainan
City, Taiwan native, Hu and his 5.8% BB rate suggests limited upside
offensively. It’s also unlikely that he’ll be able to slug in the
.500-range at the next level, however, Hu’s glove alone could make him
a safe bet to be an average Major League shortstop.
7. Oscar Tejeda, BOS (12/26/89); ETA: 2011
It’s illegal in most states—it’s not fair.
As if holding Major League Baseball’s second-highest payroll isn’t
intimidating enough, Boston also holds a ridiculous breadth of minor
league talent—now including two prospects here at one of baseball’s
most premium positions. A 6-foot-1, 180-pounder, Oscar Tejeda signed
with the Red Sox in 2006 out of
the Dominican Republic. Wasting little time to impress, Tejeda went
.296/.345/.397 between two levels (Rookie and Low-A) in his first
season as a professional. Still a raw talent, Tejeda holds all the
natural abilities necessary to be one of the highest of high-upside
prospects on this list.
8. Chris Nelson, COL (9/3/85); ETA: 2009
For
Chris Nelson, the third time truly was a charm. After struggling to the
tune of a .241/.304/.330 vital line in his first season as a pro
(2005), Nelson only improved to .260/.310/.416 the following season as
he repeated Low-A. Last season, however, was a whole new song for
Nelson. Taken No. 9 overall in the 2004 Draft, the 5-foot-11,
175-pounder did his part to prove he wasn’t a bust, going an impressive
.287/.357/.499 with a .364 wOBA last season in the California League.
If the Decatur, Ga. native kind find similar success in Double-A next
season, his stock will only continue to rise.
9. Hector Gomez, COL (3/5/88); ETA: 2010
They
may have been swept by Boston in the World Series, but at least the
Rockies are able to keep pace with the Red Sox as far as young
shortstops go. A 6-foot-1, 160-pounder out of the Dominican Republic,
Hector Gomez’s upside lands him a slot on this list—but having success
early in his professional career certainly hasn’t hurt his stock,
either. In his first year of full-season ball, Gomez tabbed a solid
.265/.306/.421 vital line as a 19-year-old in the friendly confines of
Low-A Ashville. Gomez also possesses plus speed and a solid glove, suggesting
that he should make it to the show as a big league shortstop—even if it
means leaving Colorado and Troy Tulowitzki’s shadow to do so.
10. Pete Kozma, STL (4/11/88); ETA: 2011
With
the No. 17 overall pick in the 2007 Draft, the Cardinals picked up the
top high school shortstop in the country in Pete Kozma. The 6-foot-1,
180-pounder is a product of Owasso (Okla.) H.S., where he was heralded
for his fundamentals and offensive potential.
Kozma may have struggled in his professional debut—he went just
.233/.313/.342 in his 163 plate appearances a season ago—but this hard
worker will only get better as he continues to gain experience in 2008
and beyond.
Honorable Mentions:
Adam Loberstein can be reached at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.