Off with the gloves and on with the lumber.
After hurling my breakout rotation at you last time, let’s move on to the hitters that will come to fantasy fruition in 2008.
Last season gave the fantasy world no shortage of breakout hitters:
Carlos
Peña made Andrew Friedman look like a genius by smacking the most home
runs in Tampa Bay history (46) after consecutive disappointing seasons.
Russell Martin went from solid fantasy catcher to falling one homer shy
of a 20/20 season. Brandon Phillips showed why he once was a top
prospect by becoming the only man not named Jimmy Rollins or David
Wright to go 30/30.
So who’s it going to be this year?
Once again, I plucked this group out of the voting you message boarders took part in and came up with my top five breakout hitting candidates (in no particular order):
Elijah Dukes, OF, WAS (’07: .190/.318/.391, 184 AB, 10 HR, 2 SB, 33 BB, 44 K, .192 BABIP)
Countless
restraining orders, getting sentenced to probation, allegations of
threatening his family, impregnating a minor and getting dumped by the
Devil Rays – I mean, Rays.
Yeah, it’s pretty safe to say that Elijah Dukes had a rough 2007.
And that doesn’t even address his lackluster .709 OPS when he was, in fact, actually playing baseball.
Lucky for Dukes, Jim Bowden, who happened to be charged with a DUI in Florida two years ago, is a very understanding man.
Back when he was still a prospect in the Tampa Bay system, many believed that Dukes’ raw athletic talent could match up even with Delmon Young's.
Dukes has, to his credit, a very respectable .284/.370/.454 vital line from four minor league seasons. He also has given potential fantasy owners glimpses of his power in his limited Major League tenure.
A forgotten fantasy perk of Dukes is his speed. In his minor league career, he averaged 35 swipes per 162 games, and could probably contribute at least a dozen or so in a largely speed-deprived Nats lineup.
I’m not saying
you should jump all over Dukes in round eight of your drafts thinking
he’ll turn into the next Curtis Granderson. But keep your eye on him if
he falls late into drafts and give his immense potential a second
chance. And remember, he's currently the Nationals' No. 4 outfielder.
Jeremy Hermida OF, FLA (’07: .296/.369/.501, 429 AB, 18 HR, 3 SB, 47 BB, 105 K, .356 BABIP)
Adam Foster has already gushed ad nauseam about Jason Kubel, so it’s only fair that I get to talk about another one of his mancrushes.
Touted as one of the top fantasy prospects coming into 2006, Jeremy Hermida played in only 99 games before went down with a bruised right knee injury.
The former first round pick came back with a vengeance in the latter portion of 2007, posting an insane second-half line of .340/.401/.555 in 256 at-bats.
If he can
maintain his health in 2008, there’s little question that Hermida has
the potential to smack 20+ homers, hit for a strong average and
sprinkle in a handful of steals.
Manager
Fredi Gonzalez’s tentative batting order has Hanley Ramirez and Dan
Uggla in front of Hermida and Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs (two
solid fantasy picks, by the way) to follow, which certainly doesn’t
hurt Hermida’s stock.
I won’t go out and declare that I’m mancrushing on Hermida just yet, but there’ll definitely be a place in my heart in 2008.
Rickie Weeks 2B, MIL (’07: .235/.374/.433, 409 AB, 16 HR, 25 SB, 78 BB, 116 K, .289 BABIP)
Yes,
Rickie Weeks has a career .249 batting average in the majors thus far
and strikes out more than those geezers in the Keith Hernandez and Walt
Frazier-hosted Rogaine commercials.
And we don’t care.
Here at Project Prospect, we don’t believe in batting average, so we’re throwing it out with respect to Weeks’ value, too.
Just take a look at what he’s done in three other vital roto categories—per-500 at-bat average—in his first four seasons: 95 runs, 16 HR and 26 SB.
To put that into perspective, only two second basemen topped those numbers last season: Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler.
In other words, this is a guy who could very well give you B.J. Upton-type fantasy output sans the batting average but at a highly discounted price—that is if he can actually stay healthy for 500 at-bats this season.
Edwin Encarnacion 3B, CIN (’07: .289/.356/.438, 502 AB, 16 HR, 8 SB, 39 BB, 86 K, .323 BABIP)
My boy “Eddie” Encarnacion quietly enjoyed his second straight solid fantasy campaign in 2007, and may be ready to turn the corner in 2008.
The 25-year old Dominican is at one of baseball’s so-called “magical ages,” playing in a home run happy park in Cincy and is coming off of a 2008 second half (.309/.360/.488, 10 HR) that showed his real potential.
Yes,
Encarnacion’s OPS took a 37-point hit in 2007 compared to 2006, but he
was also able to up his fly-ball percentage by 6% and shaved off 2% of
his whiff rate.
Dusty “I only play old guys” Baker has a disgusting history of love affairs with his veterans—as Joey Votto owners will soon learn all too well. But Andy Green and Jolbert Cabrera are hardly going to be threats to steal playing time from young Edwin.
Look for Encarnacion to finally crack the 20-homer plateau in 2008 and provide modest yet solid all-around fantasy production at the hot corner.
Alex Gordon 3B, KC (’07: .247/.314/.411, 543 AB, 15 HR, 14 SB, 41 BB, 137 K, .304 BABIP)
Big 12 Conference Player of the Year in 2004. Golden Spikes Award in 2005. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year in 2006. Alex Gordon’s trail to the big leagues has been blazed with the highest of accolades, which should lead to just one thing: fantasy stardom.
And
I’ll admit it—I was one of the many fantasy owners who jumped onto the
Gordon bandwagon early, believing that he would deliver right away in
his rookie season.
Though
many owners came away disappointed with Gordon’s first-year showing, I
saw his .247-15-60 season as a sign of things to come. Watching Gordon
hit last season, I could see what earned him all of those honors before
he reached the big stage.
The former standout Cornhusker doesn’t just hit the ball. He hits it hard. During his red-hot June (.327/.383/.500), I along with every visiting broadcaster noticed that this kid had some kind of swing and could flat out rake.
Though his first 20/20 season is no lock to come in 2008, look for him to improve in almost every facet of the game.
After
my last column came out, you emailed me looking for a bit more, so
here’s a mini-list of four less obvious breakout candidates just for
kicks:
- Carlos Quentin: His .526 minor league slugging shows his 30-homer potential and his opportunity will be there in the South Side.
- Corey Hart: Many people including Ned Yost gave up on him last season and he still managed to put up one of the most under-the-radar 20/20 seasons; he’ll be on the short list of potential 30/30 outfielders in 2008
- Wily Mo Peña: No longer blocked by Red Sox outfielders, Peña will finally get to use his upper-deck power in a full-time role in DC.
- Dioner Navarro: After a pathetic first half (.177/.238/.254 with 1 HR in his 209 at-bats), the now 24-year-old hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 HR in 179 at-bats after the All-Star break.
Ray Lin is trying to contain his excitement at the open registration season for 2008 fantasy baseball. If you would like to share your excitement, he can be reached at raywlin@gmail.com.