2008 Top 150 Prospect List

by Project Prospect
February 18, 2008
The culmination of countless of hours worth of quantitative studies and other analysis: Our first Top 150 prospect list - 2/18/08
No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl
1   Jay Bruce   CF   Power hitter who can rope the ball all over the field; potential all-star and a class act   20.8   CIN   AAA
2   Colby Rasmus   CF   Has as much power as Bruce with better BB/K, just not as proven; highly focussed   21.5   STL   AA
3   Evan Longoria   3B   Good bet to be above-average bat; should hit 30 HR + reach base frequently in prime   22.2   TB   AAA
4   Clay Buchholz   RHP   Overwhelming arsenal paired with finesse mentality could make him a No. 1 starter   23.4   BOS   MLB
5   Joba Chamberlain   RHP   His stuff may be better than Buchholz's; needs to prove himself as full-season starter   22.3   NYY   MLB
6   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Walk rate is only thing holding him back; strong bet to headline this list entering 2009   19.9   LAD   AA
7   David Price   LHP   Among top college arms in last decade; "wire-to-wire" consensus No. 1 pick for 2007   22.4   TB   NCAA
8   Jake McGee   LHP   One of the top power pitchers in MiLB; his secondary will make him at least a No. 2   21.5   TB   AA
9   Cameron Maybin   CF   Burner had .201 IsoP thanks to some huge power spurts last year; LD% is concerning   20.8   FLA   MLB
10   Andy LaRoche   3B   Should get chance to exhibit excellent power and patience in '08; Our pick for NL ROY   24.4   LAD   MLB
11   Johnny Cueto   RHP   It's difficult to debate his success; No. 1-2 depending on how often he gives up XBH   21.9   CIN   AAA
12   Homer Bailey   RHP   Supporters point to '07 injuries; doubters question BB% and how hittable he was   21.7   CIN   MLB
13   Travis Snider   RF   Utter hitting prowess is balanced by DH body; powerful lefty could reach AAA in '08   20.0   TOR   A
14   Matt Wieters   C   Top collegiate bat in his class; switch hitter with good power stroke, sound defense   21.7   BAL   HWB
15   Rick Porcello   RHP   Extremely advanced prep arm; top-of-the-rotation talent who figures to move quickly   19.1   DET   HS
16   Ian Kennedy   RHP   Good bet to become a No. 2; induces soft contact; has found success everywhere   23.1   NYY   MLB
17   Daric Barton   1B   Contact hitter who can draw walks and hit for power; expect smooth transition to bigs 22.4   OAK   MLB
18   Chris Marrero   1B   The kind of home-run hitter who gets pitched around when he's hot; just a bit streaky   19.6   WAS   A+
19   Gio Gonzalez   LHP   Gets called out for being under 6-foot; has made strides limiting HR; could be a No. 2   22.4   OAK   AA
20   Fernando Martinez   OF   Stayed more than afloat as teen in AA then broke hamate; expect modest improvement 19.3   NYM   AA
21   Joey Votto   1B   Line-drive machine excels at hitting the ball in the air and drawing BB; some speed, too 24.4   CIN   MLB
22   Jacoby Ellsbury   CF   Unlikely to be above-average hitter; strengths are speed and defense; very polished   24.4   BOS   MLB
23   Brandon Wood   3B   Questionable contact abilities; but tolerable due to his power; could play SS in a pinch   22.9   LAA   MLB
24   Andrew McCutchen   CF   May take a while for his game to translate to the bigs; plus speed with some power   21.3   PIT   AAA
25   Mike Moustakas   3B   Elite power hitter; good enough athlete to play SS in pro debut; could reach A+ in '08   19.4   KC   R
26   Franklin Morales   LHP   Was better than ever once he reached the bigs; expect him to get hit a bit harder in '08 22.0   COL   MLB
27   Wade Davis   RHP   Potential No. 2 does a great job limiting hard contact; really tired down the stretch   22.4   TB   AA
28   Matt LaPorta   LF   Awesome power hitter; should ascend through minors quickly; still profiles best at 1B   22.9   MIL   A
29   Angel Villalona   3B   Fresh off promising debut (.344 wOBA); power's his calling card; lots of uncertainty   17.5   SF   SS
30   Matt Antonelli   2B   Excellent walk rates, low K, and good power could put him among the game's top 2B   22.8   SD   AA
31   Jeff Clement   C   2004's 3rd overall pick punishes LHP, solid against RHP; arm strength is questionable   24.4   SEA   MLB
32   Josh Vitters   3B   Considered top prep hitter in '07 by some; pro debut (55 PA) was uninspiring - 0 XBH   18.4   CHC   R
33   Austin Jackson   CF   2nd-half surge was no coincidence - learned to pull the ball; expect a breakout year   21.0   NYY   A+
34   Reid Brignac   SS   Line-drive hitter with some pop; bat may only be average in bigs; should stick at SS   22.0   TB   AA
35   Jose Tabata   RF   More consistent but hasn't flashed as much power as Fernando; also broke hamate   19.5   NYY   A+
36   Nick Adenhart   RHP   Standout ability to keep ball in the park; limits hard contact well; good bet to be No. 2-3   21.4   LAA   AA
37   Jarrod Parker   RHP   2nd-best prep pitcher in his class; could move quickly...maybe surface as a No. 1-2   19.2   ARI   HS
38   Carlos Gonzalez   RF   Good LD hitter; his '06 success came in Lancaster; bat may only be average in bigs   22.3   OAK   AAA
39   Fautino de los Santos RHP   Winston-Salem is tough to pitch in - he dominated; AA is next step; could be a No. 2   21.9   OAK   A+
40   Jordan Schafer   CF   Broke out in '07 despite rigors of Myrtle Beach; promising power; D praised universally 21.4   ATL   A+
41   Desmond Jennings   CF   Crazy fast contact hitter also drew walks in Low-A; unproven but high-upside talent   21.2   TB   A
42   Jason Heyward   RF   Powerful 6'4'', 220-pounder lasted until the 14th pick of '07; top prep OF in his class   18.5   ATL   R
43   Beau Mills   1B   WAC star turned NAIA legend; improved K% and wOBA at each of three his pro stops 21.4   CLE   A+
44   Aaron Laffey   LHP   Extreme-ground-ball pitcher is a very safe bet to be a No. 3; that can't be said of many   22.8   CLE   MLB
45   Sean Gallagher   RHP   Matured from 12 rounder ('04) to good bet to be No. 3 starter; solid K%, good HR rates   22.1   CHC   MLB
46   Aaron Thompson   LHP   Amazing GB pitcher; had shoulder tendonitis last year and has been in pitcher's parks   20.9   FLA   A+
47   Bill Rowell   3B   Just a day older than Moustakas; slowed by oblique injury in '07; cut him some slack   19.4   BAL   A
48   Lars Anderson   1B   Doubles hitter last year; stock could explode in Lancaster; AA totals will mean more   20.3   BOS   A+
49   Trevor Cahill   RHP   Great at inducing soft contact - should translate well to A+/AA; shot at being a No. 2   19.9   OAK   A
50   Kevin Mulvey   RHP   Posted an amazing .076 IsoPA in '07 - 3.16 FIP; a good bet to become a No. 3 starter   22.7   MIN   AA
51   Jed Lowrie   SS   Could easily be a league-average hitter; better fit at second than short - limits upside   23.8   BOS   AAA
52   Elvis Andrus   SS   Myrtle Beach is known for surpressing power; expect breakout offensive year in '08   19.4   TEX   A+
53   Brett Anderson   LHP   Picked apart Low-A hitters; reached A+ in first full season; a chance to be a No. 2-3   20.1   OAK   A+
54   Michael Burgess   RF   Not sure how he slipped to 49th pick in '07; big power potential and he can draw a BB   19.3   WAS   SS
55   Jair Jurrjens   RHP   Knows how to pitch; solid bet to be a No. 3 starter; 18.1% K combined in '07, 7.1% BB   22.0   ATL   MLB
56   Geovany Soto   C   Guys don't accidentally hit like he did in '07; could be a league-average bat this season 25.0   CHC   MLB
57   Justin Masterson   RHP   Sinkerballer has Brandon-Webb upside; still needs to prove durable enough to be a SP   22.8   BOS   AA
58   Tyler Robertson   LHP   Exhibited mastery over 102.1 IP...29.2% K, 2.20 FIP; still far away but a potential No. 2   20.1   MIN   A
59   Chase Headley   3B   LD approach allows him to lace the ball all over; could become a league-average hitter   23.7   SD   MLB
60   Chris Volstad   RHP   Good command, HR rates, GB tendencies; solid shot at being a No. 3, chance of No. 2   21.3   FLA   AA
61   Matt Latos   RHP   11th rounder ('06) signed for 1st round money, dominated SS hitters over 56.1 innings   20.1   SD   SS
62   Steve Pearce   1B   Annihilated A+, AA, and AAA last year; could become a 25+ HR guy in the bigs by '09   24.8   PIT   MLB
63   Ross Detwiler   LHP   6th pick in '07 has lots of upside; not the safest bet to harness it; high BB% in NCAA   21.9   WAS   MLB
64   Greg Reynolds   RHP   Talented GB pitcher; shoulder injury limited him in '07 (50.0 IP); No. 2 if healthy return?   22.6   COL   AA
65   Hank Conger   C   25th pick from '06 managed to hit for power in MWL; should devour CAL pitching in '08   20.0   LAA   A
66   Matt Dominguez   3B   12th pick in '07; said to be great defender; bat is the question...didn't hit much in debut   18.4   FLA   SS
67   Michael Bowden   RHP   Likely only No. 3-4 but well on his way; K% rose every month from May-August in AA   21.4   BOS   AA
68   Nick Weglarz   LF   Walks a lot, Ks a lot, hits for a lot of power; Totalled 8 HR and .473 wOBA in August   20.1   CLE   A
69   Deolis Guerra   RHP   Made strides in command dept.; was limited then shut down due to shoulder tendonitis   18.8   MIN   A+
70   Jesus Montero   C   $2.0 M Ven. signee was solid in 123 rookie PA; success could translate well to A-ball   18.1   NYY   R
71   Madison Bumgarner   LHP   Young for his draft class (10th pick of '07); raw athlete with potential to be a No. 1-2   18.5   SF   HS
72   Ryan Kalish   CF   Has mastered SS ball - great BB%, low K%, solid power; broke hamate bone in July   19.8   BOS   SS
73   Sean O'Sullivan   RHP   Has allowed just 8 HR in 229.2 pro innings; isn't overpowering; could become a No. 3   20.4   LAA   A
74   Cole Rohrbough   LHP   Signed for 2nd round money in '06; 40.3% K between rookie and A ball shows upside 20.7   ATL   A
75   James Simmons   RHP   26th pick in '07 was thrusted to AA then AFL in pro debut; command is his strength   21.3   OAK   AA
76   Aaron Poreda   LHP   25th pick in '07 was held in rookie ball in his debut - thrived there; still has lots to prove   21.5   CHW   R
77   Adam Miller   RHP   His arm is spectacular when it's working; ranks this low because of injury concerns   23.2   CLE   AAA
78   Phillippe Aumont   RHP   11th pick of '07; raw with high upside; his HS (in Canada) didn't have a baseball team   19.1   SEA   HS
79   Wladimir Balentien   RF   Vastly improved contact abilities ('06 to '07); could be close to a league-average bat   23.6   SEA   MLB
80   Carlos Triunfel   SS   Teen reached A+ in debut; power is lacking, unproven on D, but a good contact hitter   17.9   SEA   A+
81   Carlos Gomez   CF   One of the fastest runners in baseball; breakout season haulted by broken hamate?   22.2   MIN   MLB
82   Anthony Swarzak   RHP   Good bet to be a No. 4; improved his walk rates last year (9.8 to 6.7%); good HR/TBF   22.4   MIN   AA
83   Kosuke Fukudome   RF   We only see him as an average regular for a year or two; then we expect a decline   30.8   CHC   INT
84   Will Inman   RHP   We love 25%+ K rate guys; but this one has had troubles staying strong for a full year   21.0   SD   AA
85   Kasey Kiker   LHP   BB% and HR rate are concerning given he was in Low-A; 27.6% K shows his upside   20.2   TEX   A
86   Chris Parmelee   RF   Showed impressive power (.175 IsoP) in full-season debut; 27.3% K is scary, though   19.9   MIN   A
87   Blake Beavan   RHP   17th pick of '07; 6'7'', 210-pound power pitcher has a lot of upside but unusual motion   19.0   TEX   HS
88   Tim Alderson   RHP   Dazzled in pro debut: 5.0 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 0 XBH; 22nd ('07) pick could reach A+ in '08   19.2   SF   R
89   Jeffrey Locke   LHP   Masterful command + overpowering stuff; yet to pitch above rookie; very high upside   20.2   ATL   R
90   Jaime Garcia   LHP   Shut down in mid-July - soreness in pitching elbow; injury may have been slowing him   21.4   STL   AA
91   Jordan Walden   RHP   DNF from '06 signed a hefy bonus; mowed down rookie hitters; at least No. 3 potential   20.2   LAA   R
92   Joe Savery   LHP   Two-way NCAA players can learn quickly; that's what we expect from '07's 19th pick   22.2   PHI   SS
93   Esmailyn Gonzalez   SS   Big INT signee was decent in pro debut; good upside; shows how INT $ is deceiving   18.4   WAS   R
94   Collin Balester   RHP   Improved BB% and K% last season; strong bet to be No. 4; .140 IsoPA is concerning   21.6   WAS   AAA
95   Matt Harrison   LHP   Turf toe ended his '07 early; limits HR and hard contact; a solid bet to become a No. 4   22.4   TEX   AA
96   Scott Elbert   LHP   Had shoulder operation in '07; could reestablish himself in '08; BB% still major concern   22.5   LAD   AA
97   Tyler Colvin   CF   Was very strong in August (.362 wOBA, AA) but had 0 BB that month; 13th pick in '06   22.4   CHC   AA
98   Kevin Ahrens   3B   High-upside hitter who played SS in pro debut but will likely wind up playing third base   18.8   TOR   R
99   Manny Parra   LHP   Has spent bulk of his career in AA and below; maybe a No. 3-4; durability is a concern 25.2   MIL   MLB
100   Cody Johnson   RF   Another Braves' prospect being brought along carefully; crushed Appy pitchers in '07   19.4   ATL   R
101   Chris Nelson   SS   Heated up in June, caught fire in July; '04's 9th overall pick; breakout coming in 2008?   22.4   COL   A+
102   Taylor Teagarden   C   Glowing defense; bat was great in CAL League (A+) and AA - had lots of Ks, though   24.1   TEX   AA
103   Chin-lung Hu   SS   Bulked up and broke out in '07; good contact hitter w/ some power; a stellar gloveman   24.0   LAD   MLB
104   Chris Mason   RHP   Succeeds by limiting HRs and throwing strikes (6.6% BB since '05); potential No. 3-4   23.6   TB   AA
105   Jeremy Jeffress   RHP   Partially met high expectations in Low-A - 26.0% K, 12.0% BB, 4.32 FIP; 16th pick ('06) 20.4   MIL   A
106   Omar Poveda   RHP   Maintained a promising 24.9% K as a teen in A/A+; big jump in BB% from MWL to CAL   20.3   TEX   A+
107   Steve Evarts   LHP   Exceptional GB pitcher so far - 80.0 pro innings without a HR; just 2.8% BB in '07, too   20.3   ATL   R
108   Michael Main   RHP   24th pick in '07 has quick, dangerous arm action - health concern; an amazing athlete   19.1   TEX   SS
109   Chris Tillman   RHP   Good in MWL, not so much in CAL; solid K% poor BB% and HR rate; potential No. 4?   19.8   BAL   A+
110   Mat Gamel   3B   Strong FSL finish after slow start; amazing in HWB (1.000+ OPS); solid all-around bat   22.5   MIL   A+
111   German Duran   2B   Huge power jump in '07 (.225 IsoP in AA); but just a average runner and low walk rate 23.5   TEX   AA
112   Dexter Fowler   CF   OBP threat without much power; projectability is a tough subject; eaten alive in AFL   21.9   COL   A+
113   J.R. Towles   C   Only has 95 PA above AA; easy to get too caught up in a C who looks like he can hit   24.0   HOU   MLB
114   Eric Hurley   RHP   Has allowed 42 HR over last 2 seasons; being brought along quickly; potential No. 4-5   22.4   TEX   AAA
115   Oscar Tejeda   SS   Raw, high-upside talent who was solid in rookie-ball and short-season in his US debut 18.1   BOS   SS
116   Engel Beltre   OF   Impressive power for a teenager in his first pro season; contact ability is questionable   18.2   TEX   SS
117   Adrian Cardenas   2B   Withstood pitcher-friendly Lakewood, FSL is next; OK contact hitter with some power   20.3   PHI   A
118   Chris Davis   3B   Mashed at home in CAL (.438 wOBA); continued success in AA - amazing 2nd half   21.9   TEX   AA
119   Neil Walker   3B   Hot Apr., May, June; steep drop in play from then on; enough bat to stick at third base? 22.4   PIT   AAA
120   Ian Stewart   3B   Great hitter in Colorado Springs but below-average on the road; bat may fit best at 2B   22.8   COL   MLB
121   Wilmer Font   RHP   Excellent strikeout rates considering his age; BB% is a concern; still, a lot of upside   17.7   TEX   R
122   James McDonald   RHP   Excellent K% (30.2 in '07), solid BB rate (6.7%); strong enough to make it as a starter?   23.3   LAD   AA
123   Trevor Crowe   CF   Things may have finally started clicking late last year - hit .314/.384/.428 in the 2nd half 24.2   CLE   AA
124   Bryan Anderson   C   40.9% of his '07 XBH came in April; has potential to be an average hitter as a catcher   21.1   STL   AA
125   Brett Cecil   LHP   Really limited XBH in R and NCAA - solid BB%, too; K% wasn't overpowering in NCAA   21.6   TOR   SS
126   Daniel Cortes   RHP   May have turned corner in August - BB% way down, K% up; lots of upside (No. 2-3?) 20.9   KC   A+
127   Max Sapp   C   Good contact and BB% in full-season debut - little power; makings to be an average C   19.9   HOU   A
128   Carlos Carrasco   RHP   His success has come in favorable pitcher's environments; could be No. 4-5 or a RP   20.9   PHI   AA
129   Gorkys Hernandez   CF   One of the fastest players in the lower minors; in a pitcher's park and league in '07   20.4   ATL   A
130   Brad Lincoln   RHP   From 4th pick in '06 to TJ patient; little pro history; excellent NCAA arm; potential No. 2   22.7   PIT   A
131   Clayton Tanner   LHP   Good GB pitcher with solid command and K rate; should be tested in CAL this season   20.2   SF   A
132   Cedric Hunter   CF   Didn't power through the MWL by any means - but solid; enough speed to stick in CF?   19.9   SD   A
133   Ben Revere   CF   Speedster was impressive in rookie ball after being selected 28th overall - .369 wOBA 19.7   MIN   R
134   Henry Alberto Rodriguez   RHP   Has makings to be a dominant RP; .056 IsoPA, 25.3% K, 13.8% BB in full-season debut 20.9   OAK   A
135   Casey Weathers   RHP   07's 8th pick had stellar year as Vandy's closer (2 XBH in 49.1 IP); signed under slot   22.6   COL   A
136   Nick Noonan   2B   Was pretty solid across the board in debut - poor BB%; selected 32nd overall in '07   18.7   SF   R
137   Oswaldo Sosa   RHP   A lot more dominant in FSL than AA; Ave. BB%, below-ave. K%; good IsoPA (.094)   22.4   MIN   AA
138   Andrew Brackman   RHP   2nd-highest upside of any NCAA pitcher in '07 draft?; '07 TJ patient and still very raw   22.2   NYY   NCAA
139   Tony Thomas   2B   Exploded on the scene as a Jr. at FSU; kept it up in the pros; 97th overall pick in '07   21.6   CHC   SS
140   Tyler Herron   RHP   Great BB% and solid IsoPA; may not be more than a No. 5 but good bet to reach that   21.5   STL   A
141   Kyle Lotzkar   RHP   Second-best prep arm out of Canada last year; solid pro debut; 53rd overall pick in '07   18.3   CIN   R
142   Jon Niese   LHP   Substantial BB% improvement from '06 to '07, though he couldn't sustain K%; No. 4-5?   21.3   NYM   A+
143   Edwardo Morlan   RHP   Among the top RP in the minors - 34.3% K, 6.9% BB; gives up a lot of extra-base hits   21.9   TB   AA
144   Jeremy Hellickson   RHP   A potential No. 4-5; solid command (7.6% BB) and stuff (23.8% K) - 3.45 FIP last year   20.8   TB   A
145   Alan Horne   RHP   Durability will decide if he's No. 5 or reliever; BB% rose every month from Apr. to Aug.   25.1   NYY   AA
146   Max Ramirez   C   Had a .396 wOBA in Kinston and Bakersfield; traded in '06 and '07; OK power hitter   23.3   TEX   A+
147   Drew Stubbs   CF   Couldn't get out of Low-A in full-season debut; big 2nd half; OK bet to reach bigs still   23.3   CIN   A
148   Max Scherzer   RHP   Strong chance he's converted to a reliever; 12.5% BB in AA to go along with 23.8% K   23.5   ARI   AA
149   Jack Egbert   RHP   Numbers are better than Horne's; potential No. 4-5 does great job limiting hard contact   24.7   CHW   AA
150   Colton Willems   RHP   Excellent IsoPA (.085) says something about his ability to pitch; 12.3% K in '07, though   19.6   WAS   SS
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* Our rankings are a snapshot of a player's potential and the odds that he'll recognize it            
** Ages are as of February 18th, 2008.            
*** Lvl is the highest level a player has played in; IsoPA is isolated power against