2008 College Draft Preview

February 26, 2008
2008 College Draft Preview: Take 1
No.   Player   Pos   Notes   Age   YR   TM   CON
1   Pedro Alvarez   3B   The best college hitter since Mark Teixeira, but with even more power   21.0   Jr.   VAN   SEC
2   Brian Matusz   LHP   Turned down seven figures in '05 draft; has control of 3 plus pitches   21.0   Jr.   SD   WCC
3   Justin Smoak   1B   Good athlete for 1B had 46.3% of his hits go for extra bases in 2007   21.2   Jr.   SC   SEC
4   Yonder Alonso   1B   Polished hitter with great zone judgment, could post 400 OBP in MLB   20.8   Jr.   MIA   ACC
5   Aaron Crow   RHP   Best FB/SL combo in college, FB touched 98 over summer, low BB%   21.5   Jr.   MIZ   Big-12
6   Brett Wallace   3B   Massive slugger (6'1'' 245lbs) with 40+ power, will move to 1B or DH   21.5   Jr.   ASU   Pac-10
7   Lance Lynn   RHP   Could be best player on the best team, 146K/44BB 123IP, great curve   20.7   Jr.   UMS   SEC
8   Jemile Weeks   2B   Much better fielder than Rickie with nearly as much offensive potential   21.0   Jr.   MIA   ACC
9   Tyson Ross   RHP   Productive in good pitchers park, works 92-95 with top-notch slurve   21.8   Jr.   Cal   Pac-10
10   Jordan Danks   CF   1st round talent in HS, 70 speed, lead Texas in 2Bs and BBs in 2007   21.5   Jr.   UT   Big-12
11   James Darnell   3B   Good zone judgment + power; should stick at 3B; .331/.450/.615 ('07)   21.1   Jr.   SC   SEC
12   Buster Posey   C   Former SS, great athlete with good arm; hit .382/.453/.520 in 2007   20.9   Jr.   FSU   ACC
13   Petey Paramore   C   Potential to be rare high OBP catcher; hit .379/.500/.549 w/ 53 BB ('07)   21.3   Jr.   ASU   Pac-10
14   Gordon Beckham   SS   Strong arm, good speed, hits for power; D needs work; could stay SS   21.4   Jr.   UGA   SEC
15   Allan Dykstra   1B   Huge slugger (6'5'' 240lbs) has great eye at plate and big time power   20.7   Jr.   WFU   ACC
16   Scott Green   RHP   Durablilty has been problem but healthy now, mid 90s FB, good slider   22.5   Jr.   KU   SEC
17   Kyle Russell   RF   28 HR and .807 slug but has long swing + Ks a ton (64 in 224 '07 ab)   21.6   Jr.   UT   Big-12
18   Christian Friedrich   LHP   Racks up lots of Ks with lights-out curve; control has been a problem   20.7   Jr.   EKU   OVC
19   Aaron Luna   LF/2B   Played all over the field, has good speed, power, and plate discipline   20.9   Jr.   Rice   CUSA
20   Brandon Crawford   SS   Potential 5-tool SS; needs to make consistant contact (58 Ks in '07)   21.0   Jr.   UCLA   Pac-10
Honorable Mentions: Jacob Thompson (P, Virginia), Tim Murphy (P, UCLA) and Danny Espinosa (SS, Long Beach State).
* Ages are as of 2/26/08 (only draft-eligible players are considered)                
** TM is the player's school                    
*** CON is the player's conference                
**** Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                
<<< Discuss these rankings in our forums                

With college baseball kicking off this past weekend, amateur scouting is in full swing as well. While much is sure to change in the four months between now and the Rule IV draft, having some general knowledge of the big men on campus is a good thing.

This year’s class is dominated by corner infield sluggers. Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez is the consensus number 1 player in this draft and as many as five other corner infielders could go in the first couple rounds of the draft. Oddly, the majority of those players are first basemen – Alvarez himself may move to first at some point – but MLB teams have shown a resistance to select college first basemen in recent drafts. Since 1998, when Carlos Pena went tenth overall, just four collegiate first basemen have been taken in the first round – and that number includes Mark Teixeira who actually played third at Georgia Tech and initially in pro ball.

Power pitchers also dominate this class San Diego’s Brian Matusz and Missouri’s Aaron Crow vying for potential number 1 overall selection and the right to join a packed Tampa Bay Rays’ system. Guys like Eastern Kentucky’s Christian Friedrich, Pepperdine’s Brett Hunter, Arizona’s Ryan Perry, and Ole Miss’ Cody Scatterwhite all have very good fastballs, the potential to strike out a lot of batters, and could hear their names called in round one with improved control and good production this spring.

While power is appears plentiful in 2008, speed and defense may be harder to find. Texas centerfielder Jordan Danks may have not quite lived up to expectations thus far in his career but still could be an early to mid first round pick as a centerfield/leadoff hitting prospect extraordinaire. Jemile Weeks, Miami’s second baseman, could go ahead of any college shortstops – which would be the first time a college second baseman went before any shortstops since Jemile’s older brother Rickie was selected No. 2 overall in 2003. The shortstop crop has the likes of toolsy-but-lacking-in-production guys (Brandon Crawford, UCLA), powerful athletes with some glove questions (Gordon Beckham, Georgia) and slick fielders with somewhat questionable bats (Danny Espinosa, Long Beach State and Beamer Weems, Baylor).

There's your introduction of what to expect from the college side of the game come the first round or so of the 2008 Draft. Keep checking back over the next three months for our updated Top 20 college draft prospect lists.

 

Lincoln can be reached at lhamilton@dentonoutlaws.com.