Industry Top 100 Analysis

With over 4,000 players in the minor leagues, a top 100 prospect list really only looks at a sliver of the players who are trying to make their way up to the bigs. And there are dozens of prospect who are so far ahead of the rest that it’s improbable that anyone would look past them. This leaves many top 100 prospect lists looking quite similar in the grand scheme of things.

For example, 55% of the players who we ranked in our top 100 were also each on Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Mound Talk’s top 100 lists. That’s enough similarity to make three All-Minors teams while agreeing upon the same core group of players.

So what really separates these lists? How can we distinguish between what the four publications above offered in 2008 and Project Prospect’s list?

Six hours of research later and I think I have some answers.

Five-Star Prospects
No.		Player		Ave.		S.D.
1		Jay Bruce		1.2		0.4
2		Evan Longoria		2.4		0.9
3		Clay Buchholz		3.6		0.9
4		Joba Chamberlain		4.0		1.0
5		Colby Rasmus		4.4		2.5
6		Clayton Kershaw		6.0		0.7
7		David Price		9.0		4.2
8		Cameron Maybin		9.4		2.5
9		Travis Snider		10.4		3.3
10		Homer Bailey		12.0		5.2
11		Matt Wieters		14.0		2.4
12		Franklin Morales		16.2		9.2
13		Andrew McCutchen		17.4		6.1
14		Andy LaRoche		18.0		9.5
15		Jacoby Ellsbury		18.4		3.9
16		Wade Davis		18.6		5.0
17		Rick Porcello		18.8		5.7
18		Jake McGee		19.2		13.9
19		Brandon Wood		24.6		11.2
20		Johnny Cueto		25.4		13.7
21		Fernando Martinez		25.8		15.5
22		Mike Moustakas		27.6		11.7
23		Daric Barton		28.2		14.1
24		Nick Adenhart		28.6		5.7
25		Matt LaPorta		29.8		5.1
26		Jordan Schafer		30.2		10.6
27		Carlos Gonzalez		31.0		8.5
28		Angel Villalona		31.6		9.8
29		Joey Votto		31.8		17.2
30		Ian Kennedy		32.8		12.8
31		Jeff Clement		33.0		11.5
32		Desmond Jennings		33.2		19.1
33		Reid Brignac		33.4		11.5
34		Chris Marrero		33.6		17.7
35		Josh Vitters		34.4		11.1
36		Jason Heyward		35.0		5.1
37		Jose Tabata		36.0		9.7
38		Austin Jackson		38.8		10.4
39		Jarrod Parker		40.2		15.4
40		Chase Headley		43.6		16.6
41		Elvis Andrus		46.2		21.0
42		Matt Antonelli		47.0		27.6
43		Fautino de los Santos		48.4		9.7
44		Adam Miller		49.4		20.7
45		Geovanny Soto		49.6		17.4
46		Ross Detwiler		51.0		10.2
47		Carlos Triunfel		53.0		22.6
48		Lars Anderson		53.4		27.5
49		Carlos Gomez		56.2		17.5
50		Justin Masterson		57.0		4.5
51		Jed Lowrie		58.4		8.5
52		Manny Parra		64.2		24.0
53		Deolis Guerra		65.4		18.3
54		Chris Volstad		70.0		16.5
55		Hank Conger		72.8		18.7

Industry Agreement

Let’s start by highlighting the players who Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Mound Talk, and Project Prospect agreed upon.

The list to the right is simply created from averaging the scores for the 55 prospects who we all had inside our top 100s. Let’s call them Five-Star Prospects.

Note that two players had average scores that ranked them well inside the top 50 but were not included on this list because they were both left off ESPN’s list – Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson. Three other players received multiple top 50 votes but were left off lists: Chin-lung Hu (PP), Beau Mills (BP and ESPN), and Eric Hurley (PP).

Shown in the column labeled “S.D.”, I also calculated the standard deviation for each prospect in our group of 55. As expected, standard deviation generally increases as we move down the list. There’s a ton of agreement with the top 17 prospects, except Franklin Morales – backed the most by BA, BP, and ESPN – and Andy LaRoche – backed the most by PP, BP, and MT. Jake McGee, Johnny Cueto, Fernando Martinez, and Daric Barton are the remaining five players on the top half of the list who spur notable disagreement. Elvis Andrus, Matt Antonelli, Adam Miller, Carlos Triunfel, Lars Anderson, and Manny Parra are the most disputed players on the bottom half of the list.

Publication Trends

It’s not fair to slap labels on publications based on one top 100. But there are clear trends that I was able to pick out with each list and I think it’s worth noting these trends so they are at least available for future analysis. I’ll break each publication down in four categories then give a summary of what I think makes their list unique.

The four categories I’ll be using are: renegade picks, loner instances, buddy picks, and an overall extreme score. Renegade picks are when a publication includes a player in its top 100 that no other publication did. Loner instances are when every publication included a player except one. Buddy picks are when a pair of publications select a player that no one else had in their top 100. And my overall extreme score is a basic calculation based on the definitions above – loner*3 + renegade*2 + buddy.

I have a lot of respect for each one of these publications and the hard work put in by the authors of each list. During the time I spent with Baseball America last year, it was obvious to me that everyone in that building works extremely hard – it's a much smaller publication that a lot of people realize. I've had conversations with Kevin Goldstein online and he has always been very professional, polite, and respectful with me. I think it's cool the Keith Law is willing to think as independently as he does, his list carries a unique value for that reason. And I'm a big enough fan of Koby's work that I asked him to help as a consultant for our list. I wrote this article not to bash any of my peers, but to simply offer a comparative study.

Baseball America

Primary Voices: Jim Callis, John Manuel, Will Lingo, and Chris Kline.

Years publishing top 100s: 19.

Loner Instances: Wladimir Balentien and Aaron Poreda.

Renegade Picks: Nick Blackburn (56), Daniel Cortes (57), Chuck Lofgren (71), Adrian Cardenas (76), Hector Gomez (95), and Drew Stubbs (100).

Buddy Picks: Kosuke Fukudome (30, PP), Ian Stewart (38, ESPN), Brett Sinkbeil (68, MT), Dexter Fowler (74, BP), Tyler Colvin (75, PP), Troy Patton (78, MT), Nolan Reimold (91, ESPN), Neftali Feliz (93, BP), and Jeff Niemann (99, MT).

Extreme Score: 27 = Moderate.

Summary: BA has a good balance of risk taking between hitters and pitchers. And it rarely strays completely away from the pack. The authors stick their necks out enough so their list is unique but not so much that their followers will wind up well off the beaten path.

Baseball Prospectus

Primary Voice: Kevin Goldstein.

Years publishing top 100s: 2.

Loner Instances: None.

Renegade Picks: Jeremy Jeffress (76), Wes Hodges (78), Ben Revere (97), and Chris Carter (99).

Buddy Picks: Neftali Feliz (30, BA), Engel Beltre (62, ESPN), Brent Lillibridge (63, MT), Gerardo Parra (64, ESPN), Alan Horne (67, MT), Michael Main (73, ESPN), Chorye Spoone (75, ESPN), Chris Nelson (80, ESPN), Henry Sosa (84, ESPN), and Dexter Fowler (92, BA)

Extreme Score: 18 = Conservative.

Summary: Some people may look at BP’s list and think, “Wow Neftali Feliz at 30! This list is wild!” But in the big picture that’s hardly true. If you’re looking for a list that includes a minimal amount of risk taking, this is what you want. And that’s not to say that this approach is flawed in the slightest. It’s entirely possible that the extreme urges certain publications tend to act upon are the ones that wind up looking foolish more often than not.

Project Prospect

Primary Voices: Adam Foster, Adam Loberstein, Doug Gray, and Koby Schellenger.

Years publishing top 100s: 2.

Loner Instances: Chin-lung Hu, Eric Hurley, Carlos Carrasco, Taylor Teagarden, Max Scherzer, Neil Walker, and Gorkys Hernandez.

Renegade Picks: Aaron Laffey (44), Aaron Thompson (46), Kevin Mulvey (50), Jesus Montero (70), Sean O’Sullivan (73), Anthony Swarzak (72), James Simmons (75), Chris Parmelee (86), Jeffrey Locke (89), Esmailyn Gonzalez (93), Kevin Ahrens (98), and Cody Johnson (100).

Buddy Picks: Bill Rowell (47, MT), Tyler Robertson (58, ESPN), Matt Dominguez (66, ESPN), Nick Weglarz (68, ESPN), Madison Bumgarner (71, MT), Kosuke Fukudome (83, BA), Will Inman (84, MT), Kasey Kiker (85, MT), Blake Beavan (87, MT), Matt Harrison (95, MT), and Tyler Colvin (97, BA).

Extreme Score: 56 = Extreme.

Summary: We went out on the limb with a lot of pitchers who managed to do an exceptional job limiting extra base-hits last season – something that some people believe is more a product or luck than skill. We also recognized a fair amount of high-upside hitters rather than going with more stable options who have proven themselves in the upper minors. In five years, this list will likely look either really bad or really good. Use with caution.

ESPN

Primary Voice: Keith Law.

Years publishing top 100s: 1.

Loner Instances: Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Steve Pearce, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Elbert, and Michael Bowden.

Renegade Picks: German Duran (48), James McDonald (52), Brett Cecil (63), Felipe Paulino (65), Tommy Hanson (66), Kyle Blanks (68), Fernando Perez (72), Mitch Boggs (73), Jeremy Hellickson (75), Josh Donaldson (76), John Jaso (78), Jordan Zimmerman (83), Chris Withrow (86), Josh Smoker (90), Brad Lincoln (97), and Andrew Brackman (100).

Buddy Picks: Nolan Reimold (39, BA), Michael Main (46, BP), Matt Dominguez (54, PP), Nick Weglarz (62, PP), Ian Stewart (70, BA), Henry Sosa (74, BP), Chris Nelson (77, BP), Gerardo Parra (82, BP), Tyler Robertson (91, PP), Chorye Spoone (96, BP), and Engel Beltre (98, BP).

Extreme Score: 61 = Extreme.

Summary: Law pretty much came out and said that he doesn’t let anyone else influence his opinions. They are his own. Every renegade hitter pick he made – except Kyle Blanks – was a player over the age of 22. I believe just about every renegade pitcher he went with has above-average velocity. So though this list is extreme, it’s almost the reciprocal of the list we made, which means it’s less risky on the hitter side and more risky on the pitcher side. It will be very interesting to compare our list with Law’s five years from now.

Mound Talk

Primary Voice: Koby Schellenger.

Years publishing top 100s: 1.

Loner Instances: Jordan Walden.

Renegade Picks: Oscar Tejeda (82), Dellin Betances (85), Mat Gamel (92), Jon Meloan (93), and Aaron Cunningham (100).

Buddy Picks: Will Inman (41, PP), Bill Rowell (63, PP), Madison Bumgarner (66, PP), Brent Lillibridge (73, BP), Jeff Niemann (74, BA), Blake Beavan (75, PP), Troy Patton (78, BA), Alan Horne (84, BP), Brett Sinkbeil (89, BA), Kasey Kiker (96, PP), and Matt Harrison (97, PP).

Extreme Score: 24 = Moderate.

Summary: Koby’s extreme score is a little misleading, as most of the risks he took were in the final third of his list. With the exception of his high praise for Will Inman, his list is quite conservative. Again, this will likely lead to a list that ultimately doesn’t miss on many prospects but doesn’t unearth many from the beaten path, either.

“Mock Draft”

To demonstrate the differences in thinking between each of the five publications that I highlighted, I have put together a 31-round, off-line mock prospect draft. Order was determined randomly. The draft was done in a serpentine style, with each publication selecting the highest player available from its top 100 when its turn came up. The results are below:

Rd.	ESPN	Baseball Propectus	Baseball America	Project Prospect	Mound Talk
1	Evan Longoria	Jay Bruce	Joba Chamberlain	Colby Rasmus	Clay Buchholz
2	Franklin Morales	Travis Snider	Cameron Maybin	David Price	Clayton Kershaw
3	Homer Bailey	Rick Porcello	Matt Wieters	Jake McGee	Andy LaRoche
4	Fernando Martinez	Wade Davis	Jacoby Ellsbury	Ian Kennedy	Johnny Cueto
5	Desmond Jennings	Jordan Schafer	Andrew McCutchen	Daric Barton	Brandon Wood
6	Josh Vitters	Jarrod Parker	Mike Moustakas	Chris Marrero	Jeff Clement
7	Carlos Triunfel	Joey Votto	Elvis Andrus	Gio Gonzalez	Reid Brignac
8	Angel Villalona	Chase Headley	Carlos Gonzalez	Matt LaPorta	Matt Antonelli
9	Jose Tabata	Nick Adenhart	Jason Heyward	Austin Jackson	Beau Mills
10	Lars Anderson	Neftali Feliz	Adam Miller	Fautino de los Santos	Eric Hurley
11	Geovany Soto	Chin-lung Hu	Kosuke Fukudome	Aaron Laffey	Will Inman
12	Carlos Gomez	Ross Detwiler	Deolis Guerra	Sean Gallagher	Waldimir Balentien
13	Nolan Reimold	Manny Parra	Brett Anderson	Aaron Thompson	Hank Conger
14	Taylor Teagarden	Steve Pearce	Ian Stewart	Bill Rowell	Neil Walker
15	Michael Main	Chris Tillman	Jair Jurrjens	Trevor Cahill	Max Scherzer
16	German Duran	Jed Lowrie	J.R. Towles	Kevin Mulvey	Justin Masterson
17	James McDonald	Jordan Walden	Carlos Carrasco	Michael Burgess	Chris Volstad
18	Matt Dominguez	Ryan Kalish	Nick Blackburn	Tyler Robertson	Luke Hochevar
19	Tim Alderson	Matt Latos	Chris Davis	Greg Reynolds	Madison Bumgarner
20	Brett Cecil	Engel Beltre	Daniel Cortes	Nick Weglarz	Michael Bowden
21	Felipe Paulino	Brent Lillibridge	Brett Sinkbeil	Jesus Montero	Scott Elbert
22	Tommy Hanson	Gerardo Parra	Radhames Liz	Sean O'Sullivan	Chris Perez
23	Aaron Poreda	Alan Horne	Brandon Jones	Cole Rohrbough	Jeff Niemann
24	Kyle Blanks	Bryan Anderson	Chuck Lofgren	James Simmons	Blake Beavan
25	Fernando Perez	Chorye Spoone	Dexter Fowler	Phillippe Aumont	Troy Patton
26	Mitch Boggs	Jeremy Jeffress	Tyler Colvin	Anthony Swarzak	Oscar Tejeda
27	Henry Sosa	Wes Hodges	Adrian Cardenas	Kasey Kiker	Jaime Garcia
28	Jeremy Hellickson	Chris Nelson	Collin Balester	Chris Parmelee	Dellin Betances
29	Josh Donaldson	Gorkys Hernandez	Joe Savery	Jeffrey Locke	Mat Gamel
30	John Jaso	Casey Weathers	Hector Gomez	Esmailyn Gonzalez	Jon Meloan
31	Jordan Zimmerman	Ben Revere	Drew Stubbs	Matt Harrison	Aaron Cunningham

 

I’ll gladly share the excel sheet that I put together for this column. Just email a request to adamf@projectprospect.com.