Top 10 Third Base Prospects - Mar. 2008

Third base continues to be one of the most loaded positions in the minors. It wouldn’t surprise us if four or more of the players on this list wind up being above-average big leaguers. Note: We didn’t include Angel Villalona, who was moved to first base after we published our Top 10 1B article, on this list. Villalona would have ranked fifth here.

1. Evan Longoria, TB (10/7/85), ETA: 2008

Longoria has progressed well since the Devil Rays drafted him third overall in 2006. The Long Beach State product is a good contact hitter with enough power to reach the 30 home-run plateau more than a few times over the course of his big league career – .221 IsoP in 2007. He also has proven patient enough to draw a good amount of walks – 12.6% last season. The biggest knocks on Longoria at this point are that he’s a below-average runner and he struggled making contact upon being promoted to Triple-A last August – 17.9% K in AA, 22.7 in AAA. But overall he’s a very solid bet to become an above-average regular for the Rays.

2. Andy LaRoche, LAD (9/13/83), ETA: 2008

LaRoche was limited to 431 plate appearances last season due to irregular playing time (MLB) and shoulder as well as back problems. The 6-foot-1, 225-pounder had a complete tear in his left labrum that required surgery prior to the 2007 season – an injury that typically limits a hitter’s power during recovery. LaRoche may have tried to come back too quickly.

He was hitting .244/.336/.366 in Triple-A as of June 17^th – spent most of May struggling to generate power in the bigs – before missing almost two full weeks. But when he returned he caught fire. By September 1^st, LaRoche had raised his batting average 65 points, on-base 63 points, and slugging by 223 points – hit .365/.447/.817 after the All-Star Break...a home run every eight at-bats. LaRoche cooled significantly in a 55 at-bat September call-up (.236/.300/.345), striking out in 31.1% of the time. If he’s healthy and opens the year in Los Angeles, he could post a .250+ IsoP and top 30 home runs this season. That kind of production would virtually assure him National League Rookie of the Year honors.

3. Brandon Wood, LAA (3/2/85), ETA: 2008

Wood showed signs of improvement as a contact hitter last season, striking out less and hitting more line drives than he did in 2006 – 24.6% K vs. 28.5; 19% LD vs. 14. But doing so forced him to sacrifice a good amount of power – and Triple-A Salt Lake is a home-run friendly. It’s likely that the 6-foot-3, 185-pounder will have trouble adjusting once he reaches the big leagues on a full-time basis. But there’s still a decent chance that Wood will turn into an above-average slugger in the bigs, something that can’t be said of many prospects. Just brace yourself for a rocky ride.

4. Mike Moustakas, KC (9/11/88), ETA: 2009

One of the older prepsters in his draft class, Moustakas played shortstop in high school and during his pro debut. But there’s virtually no chance that he’ll stick at the position due to his limited range, so we’re not going to attempt to mask him as a potential shortstop. He’ll likely move to third base or right field as he attempts to mash his way through the minors. The second overall pick in 2007, Moustakas had a promising .146 IsoP in his 41 at-bat pro debut. His bat could grant him a Jay Bruce/Travis Snider-esque ascension through the minors.

5. Josh Vitters, CHC (5/4/89), ETA: 2010

A favorite to be the first high school hitter selected in his class for a good portion of his senior season, Vitters went to the Cubs third overall. Five prep hitters have been top three picks over the last seven years: Moustakas, Justin Upton (2005), Matt Bush (2004), Delmon Young (2003), B.J. Upton (2002), and Joe Mauer (2001). Vitters’ tiny pro sample is hardly reason to start panicking (.118/.164/.118, 5.5% BB, 0 XBH in 55 plate appearances). We think he’ll quiet his doubters this season. With a good year, he could become generally recognized a one of the game’s top 25 prospects.

6. Bill Rowell, BAL (9/10/88), ETA: 2010

It was almost as if Rowell was playing against a stacked deck last season. He injured his oblique during spring training and spent the year in Delmarva, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the minors, upon returning in late-May. This led the youngster – note that he’s only one day older than Moustakas – to a pretty mediocre full-season debut (.271/.335/.424). We think he’ll rebound, not unlike the top high school hitter who was drafted the year before him: Justin Upton. At 6-foot-5, 205-pounds, Rowell has a larger frame than most third basemen. His power could allow him to move across the diamond and still be a potential average regular or better.

7. Chase Headley, SD (5/9/84), ETA: 2008

Headley did a lot of things right last season. He had the best line-drive rate in the Texas League (24%), finished second in the league in isolated power (.250, behind Colby Rasmus’ .276), and walked in 15.3% of his plate appearances. Some believe that we give his age vs. level too much weight. Could be. But we have other reasons for not ranking him higher.

How about a 4.6% increase in strikeout rate from High-A (16.8) to Double-A (21.6)? Or better yet that his batting average on balls in play was .411 last season? My speed score has Headley as a below-average runner, so even with his high line-drive rate, there’s next to no chance he’ll come close to sustaining that kind of BABIP next season – there wasn’t a single big-league regular who topped .400 BABIP last season. Headley’s ability to make contact could be seriously challenged next season. At this point, we don’t anticipate him becoming an above-average regular.

8. Matt Dominguez, FLA (8/28/89), ETA: 2011

A very good defender with the potential to hit for average power, Dominguez was selected 12^th overall last June – scouting info from MiLB.com. Like Vitters, he struggled making contact and taking walks his pro debut – 23.3% K, 3.3% BB; 60 plate appearances. The 6-foot-2, 180-pounder has the least power of any player mentioned thus far on this list. We think his defensive skill set makes him a safe bet to move through the minors at a steady pace, though his bat and lack of speed may ultimately limit his upside.

9. Kevin Ahrens, TOR (3/26/89), ETA: 2011

Unlike the other 2007 Draft picks in this list, Ahrens (16^th overall) played enough last season (193 plate appearances) where we can begin to get an idea of what kind of player he is through his numbers. So far he has demonstrated patience (13.5% BB) while struggling to make solid contact, evidenced by his 24.4% K, .230 batting average, 9% line-drive rate and .091 isolated power. And though he has a better chance of sticking at shortstop than Moustakas, his speed (range) will almost certainly force him to move off the position as well, and third base is where we think he’ll end up. Expect Ahrens to open 2008 in Low-A. It will take a big offensive year for him to finish the year as a consensus top 50 prospect.

10. Mat Gamel, MIL (6/26/85), ETA: 2009

Brevard County and the Florida State League are known to limit power hitters. Ryan Braun only managed a .164 IsoP there in 2006 – he then posted a .310 in the bigs in 2007. Playing in the league at a younger age than Braun, Gamel managed to hit for slightly more power (.172 IsoP). The 2005 4^th rounder followed that by turning in a .333/.410/.608 line over 33 games in the Hawaii Winter League. Don’t be surprised if he gets off to a hot start in Double-A Huntsville this season and reaches Triple-A by year’s end. The lefthanded hitter’s lack of experience in the upper minors is the main factor that’s holding him back on this list. But he’s one strong year away from becoming a guy with potential to be at least an average big-league hitter.

Honorable Mentions:

Though his ability to make contact remains questionable, Chris Davis (TEX, 3/17/86, ETA: 2009) put up some sick power numbers in 2007 – 27.5% K, 12% LD, .300 IsoP. Davis is still a bit of a wild card but he’s a high-upside talent who’s worth keeping an eye on. Neil Walker (PIT, 9/10/85, ETA: 2008) was an elite amateur and he has progressed through the minors at a good pace. What concerns us is his lack of production. He’s a career .283/.333/.430 minor leaguer who has struggled down the stretch in each of the past two seasons. Remember when Ian Stewart (COL, 4/5/85, ETA: 2008) exploded onto the scene with a 30 home run season in Low-A four years ago? Now raise your hand if you’re aware that Ashville – his home park that season – is one of the most home-run friendly environments in the minor leagues. It interests us that Stewart is still held in such high regard by some after failing to replicate his Ashville and California League success in the upper minors. We see his upside as only a potential average regular and aren’t confident in his odds of becoming even that type of player.

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.