With three of our top 10 overall prospects positioned in the outfield, this list has as much talent as any positional rankings we've done this year. Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, and Cameron Maybin should all see time in the big leagues this season. And they figure to start making All-Star Game pushes in the not so distant future.
1. Jay Bruce, CF CIN (4/3/87), ETA: 2008
It's hard to find holes in Bruce's game. He hits for power to all fields, consistently registers line drives, and he's a decent runner, traits that figure to make him one of the game's elite hitters. But the 6-foot-3, 195-pounder did strike out frequently last season (23.4%) and his walk rate was below-average (8.1%). Expect the lefty to earn a starting job in the big leagues by the end of this season. That would make him one of the youngest regulars in baseball.
2. Colby Rasmus, CF STL (8/11/86), ETA: 2008
There's a legitimate chance that Rasmus will wind up being an even better big leaguer than Bruce. He's faster, just as good of a line-drive -- and perhaps power -- hitter, and he has more plate discipline. The lefty's numbers took a big hit when he tried to play through a sinus infection last June (.211/.308/.388). And he could be streaky even when he's healthy because of his pull-hitting approach. But Rasmus should be able to stick in center field and could become one of the game's elite at that position.
3. Cameron Maybin, CF FLA (4/4/87), ETA: 2008
Maybin's minor league numbers haven't been nearly as dazzling as Bruce and Rasmus'. He had problems driving the ball in Low-A and High-A, though he was in a pitcher's park in Low-A and a pitcher's league in High-A. Then he separated his shoulder in late-June last season. But he came back and had a sterling August (.276/.367/.618 - 7 HR) that included time in the big leagues and Double-A. Maybin's also a well-above-average runner with solid plate discipline. The biggest question about his game remains ability to make contact (25.5% K, 11.2% LD last season). He's not nearly as safe of a bet to become an above-average big leaguer as the players above, but he has shown flashes of amazing power and his speed will make him an exciting player.
4. Travis Snider, RF TOR (2/2/88), ETA: 2008
That 2008 above isn't a typo. The 14th overall pick of the 2006 Draft, Snider may be making a push for a major league callup after the 2008 All-Star break. He followed up a .375 wOBA season in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League with a .316/.404/.541 stint in the Arizona Fall League (98 at-bats). Snider's calling card is his power (.212 IsoP in Low-A), while his high strikeout rate (23.5% career) and below-average speed will limit his upside. Though the 5-foot-11, 245-pounder is an impressive athlete, his body still may force him into a DH role. Regardless of where he plays -- or doesn't play -- on the diamond, Snider's bat is already special enough to make him a sound bet to become at least an average big leaguer.
5. Fernando Martinez, OF NYM (10/10/88), ETA: 2009
Martinez hasn't found extended offensive success above Low-A and he's coming off an injury -- broke his hamate bone last June; required surgery. But don't mistake him for a player who has merely stayed afloat each season. He's a very advanced hitter who could join the game's elite. He was probably going to be overmatched as a 18-year-old over a full season in Double-A but we're not convinced he wasn't ready for the challenge. The Dominican Native has the potential to be a good contact hitter (18.4% K since 2006) with above-average power (.178 IsoP in 2006). If you're into high-upside prospects, keep a careful watch on this one.
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF BOS (9/11/83), ETA: 2008
As safe of a bet to reach his ceiling as any player this far on this list, Ellsbury is a big-league-ready defender with a ton of speed and a bat that could be average. His combined 2007 vital line was .330/.389/.442 -- 83 AA plate appearances, 403 AAA, 127 MLB. He only struck out in just 11.3% of his 2007 at-bats and had a 16.8% line-drive rate. H's an excellent contact hitter with below-average power. Ellsbury also doesn't draw a ton of walks (8.9% since 2006). The Oregon State product should receive regular playing time with the Red Sox this season. He won't hit as well as he did in the bigs in 2007 but a vital line similar to the .298/.359/.380 he put up in Triple-A is hardly out of the question.
7. Andrew McCutchen, CF PIT (10/10/86), ETA: 2008
Though he has been the victim of wicked June slumps in each of the past two seasons, McCutchen started strong and finished strong in both 2006 and 2007. An above-average runner, the 5-foot-11, 175-pounder makes solid contact and has enough power to drive the ball out to center. McCutchen's .313 wOBA from Double-A (499 plate appearances) is hardly impressive but he has been brought along through the minors very quickly so expect him to improve on that number this season in Triple-A or maybe even in the big leagues. The 11th pick of the 2005 Draft, he's a raw, high-upside talent who could be a big-league regular prior to his 22nd birthday.
8. Matt LaPorta, LF MIL (1/8/85), ETA: 2008
LaPorta has taken an abnormal route to pro ball. An elite draft prospect, he was limited by an oblique injury in 2006 -- his junior year in college -- and he made the decision to return to University of Florida to play out his senior year. A mammoth final year in college made him the 7th overall pick of the 2007 Draft. The 6-foot-2, 212-pounder isn't a great contact hitter but he has amazing power. He averaged a home run every 12.6 at-bats last year between short-season, Low-A, and the AFL. It's unlikely that he'll be able to maintain that kind of power in the upper minors, but he could be topping 20 home runs a season as soon as 2009. Just note that LaPorta's lack of speed could ultimately make him unfit to play in the outfield.
9. Austin Jackson, CF NYY (2/1/87), ETA: 2009
A righthanded batter, Jackson pulled the ball to left side of the field in 34.0% of his Low-A at-bats last season. Once he reached High-A, he hit it there 43.8% of the time. Given that both samples include over 250 plate appearances, I believe it's fair to say that Jackson has made substantial improvements in terms of getting around on the ball. The results: .260/.335/.374 (Low-A) and .345/.398/.566 (High-A) -- a .107 point jump in isolated power. What's more, the 6-foot-1, 185-pounder hit .271/.368/.489 in the pitcher-friendly Hawaii Winter League (133 at-bats). Fast enough to be an average MLB center fielder or better, Jackson has now sustained a .220 IsoP over 476 at-bats between High-A and Hawaii. He's an excellent bet to break out over a full season in 2008.
10. Jose Tabata, RF NYY (8/12/88), ETA: 2010
One of four players on this list who broke his hamate bone last season, Tabata signed for over six figures in 2005 and has progressed through the minors at a healthy pace. He's a strong bet to become at least an average big leaguer, but we're going to be cautious with him until he puts up better power numbers. It should be noted that the 5-foot-11, 160-pounder's only multi-home run month in 2007 was August, when he hit two in just 30 at-bats prior to being shut down for the season. A below-average runner who we expect to open the season in Double-A, Tabata is a good contact hitter -- though his 10% line-drive rate from High-A isn't dazzling -- with All-Star potential.
11. Carlos Gonzalez, RF OAK (10/17/85), ETA: 2008
Gonzalez was hitting .254/.286/.426 in Double-A as of the end of June. He then caught fire in July and kept it up in August to earn a Triple-A promotion and finish the season with a .288/.336/.478 vital line. A below-average runner, Gonzalez' biggest strength is his power bat. Though he doesn't draw many walks, he has turned into a decent contact hitter -- career .286 minor league batting average. The lefthanded hitter will likely open the 2008 season in Triple-A. He could be making a push for a big-league job by midseason.
12. Jordan Schafer, CF ATL (9/4/86), ETA: 2009
Though his offensive upside hinges on his ability to make contact, Schafer has a good amount of power and every defensive report that's published about him seems to be glowing. Despite playing in a couple of environments that are difficult to hit home runs in last season, he totaled a .202 IsoP (129 Low-A at-bats, 436 High-A). Schafer is a decent bet to be at least average big league hitter. If he can maintain his power while walking more and or striking out less, he could blossom into one of the top center fielders in baseball. That's a big if though.
13. Desmond Jennings, CF TB (10/30/86), ETA: 2009
Jennings was a force in Low-A. A good contact hitter who showed sound plate discipline, the 6-foot-2, 180-pounder hit .315/.400/.466 in Columbus. His biggest strength may be his speed -- my speed score has him as one of the fastest players in the minors. Jennings' .151 isolated power is solid but he'll have to make strides in that department to be an average power hitter at the major league level.
14. Jason Heyward, RF ATL (8/9/89), ETA: 2010
The 14th overall pick of the 2007 Draft, Heyward was the first prep outfielder taken in his draft class. Six of the lefty's 14 hits in his 44 pro at-bats went for extra bases. And at 6-foot-4, 220-pounds he has an ideal build for a power hitter. About the only things Heyward didn't do in his pro debut were draw walks (6.1%) and exhibit speed -- may not be fast enough to play the outfield. With his amateur track record and good start in pro ball, Heyward is a likely bet to continue his rise among the elite prospects in baseball.
15. Michael Burgess, RF WAS (10/20/88), ETA: 2010
Burgess had a disappointing senior season that dropped him from potential top 20 overall pick to 49th overall. But he signed quickly and began proving himself as a pro ball player immediately. The 5-foot-11, 195-pound lefty hit .318/.421/.561 over 235 plate appearances (154 GCL, 81 short-season). Though his 14.9% BB rate was impressive, his 25.5% K rate is concerning. Look for Burgess to open 2008 in Low-A. A season's worth of consistent contact would make him a solid bet to become an average big leaguer or better.
16. Nick Weglarz, LF CLE (12/16/87), ETA: 2009
Weglarz has begun to establish himself as one of the most promising power hitters in the minors. But the lefty's game goes beyond his power potential. He also walked in 15.9% of his plate appearances last season. The 94th overall pick in 2005, Weglarz only had two at-bats in 2006 after breaking his hamate bone. He's a well below average runner who may be forced to move to first base or designated hitter. But his power bat (.276/.395/.497 vital line last season) could to allow him to ascend to the majors no matter what position he winds up playing.
17. Ryan Kalish, CF BOS (3/28/88), ETA: 2009
Yet another victim of a broken hamate bone, Kalish broke his in July of 2007. The injury put a quick end to his .368/.471/.540 stint in short-season ball (105 plate appearances). The Red Sox signed Kalish for 2nd round money after taking him in the 9th round of the 2006 Draft. We don't have enough data to give him our full support as likely bet to stick in center field at this point but he appears to be a well-above-average runner. Kalish could be a big riser this year when he at last gets a taste of full-season ball.
18. Wladimir Balentien, RF SEA (7/2/84), ETA: 2008
Balentien has a chance of becoming an average regular. He's a decent contact hitter -- made strides in this department last season -- with solid power. His production tailed off severely after the All-Star Break (.209/.281/.318), costing him an opportunity to receive playing time in the big leagues. The 6-foot-2, 215-pounder has a thick lower half that may eventually make him a below-average runner -- he was average last season. Look for Balentien to open the 2008 season in Triple-A. He could get 200+ plate appearances in the bigs.
19. Carlos Gomez, CF MIN (12/4/85), ETA: 2008
One of the fastest runners in baseball, Gomez is the fourth and final player on this list who broke his hamate bone in 2007. The injury was particularly devastating for Gomez, who has struggled with hitting for power in the past -- the injury tends to sap its victim's power for over a year. Gomez is a wild card due to the rate he was promoted through the minors. His power output will ultimately determine what kind of big leaguer he is.
20. Kosuke Fukudome, RF CHC (4/26/77), ETA: 2008
We're not ready to declare that Fukudome will instantly become an average to above-average regular. And the fact that he'll turn 31 during his first MLB season substantially limits his long-term value. There's a chance that 2008 could be Fukudome's career MLB year. We're also concerned about the fact that one of his strengths in Japan was his ability to draw walks, as the hitters who have come to the big leagues from Japan before him have had trouble sustaining their walk rates. We expect him to be an average regular for two seasons then begin a big decline.
Honorable Mentions:
Chris Parmelee (RF MIN, 2/24/88, ETA: 2010) strikes out a lot but his power is for real. If he can learn to make more consistent contact, he could become an elite prospect. Tyler Colvin (CF CHC, 9/5/85, ETA: 2009) is an above-average runner with solid power but he rarely walks and he strikes out a lot. The 24th overall pick in 2006, Cody Johnson (LF ATL, 8/18/88, ETA: 2010) is being brought along carefully but he is coming off a monster power stint in the Appy League (.305/.374/.630). His stock could start to soar in 2008. Dexter Fowler (CF COL, 3/22/86, ETA: 2009) was slowed by a wrist injury in what could have been a breakout year for him. He should be back to 100% in 2008 and could finally break out. Engel Beltre (CF, 11/1/89, ETA: 2010) signed a six-figure bonus in 2006 and played in short-season ball as a 17-year-old last year. He is still very raw but he has a lot of power potential.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.