Project Fantasy: Investing In Francs

What can I say, I’m a fan of French things. French films, French fries, French dip. I love’em all.

But in fantasy, the only Frenchie we care about is Jeff Francoeur.

In his 2005 rookie campaign, Francoeur caught the attention of the fantasy world by popping 14 homers in 257 at-bats while hitting .300.

Back in the day, Francoeur was the quintessential scout’s dream. Exceptional athleticism, a cannon arm, exceptional raw power and the innate feel for the game.

His major drawback however, was his utter impatience at the plate. Francoeur compiled a sub-par .330 on-base percentage and a frightening 1-to-3 BB/K ratio in 1,416 minor league at-bats.

Nonetheless, the Braves stayed patient with their young phenom and it paid off in 2006. That year, Francoeur established himself as an emerging fantasy outfielder with a .260-29-103 campaign in which he played in all 162 games.

For ease of analysis, let’s take a look at Francoeur’s year-by-year stats from 2005-2007: 

Last season, Francoeur sacrificed 10 homers to improve his average by 33 points and his walk rate by 2.7%. While fantasy owners were glad to have his 84 runs scored and 105 driven in to go with the strong batting average, the drop in taters for someone notoriously known for monstrous power left something to be desired.

Which brings us to 2008.What should fans expect out of the 24-year old now that he has 1,550 major league at-bats under his belt?

Early reports out of Spring Training camp say that Frenchie had tacked on about 17 pounds of muscle and had teammates quipping, “He’s ripped.”

Perhaps the best quote came from his newest outfield partner Mark Kotsay, who said, “He’s country strong. One of his legs is bigger than both of mine.”

Unfortunately, no fantasy leagues I know of awards points for thigh diameter. However, the report above also notes that Francoeur has become “noticeably more muscular in his shoulders, neck and legs,” which is promising.

Francoeur himself said, “I definitely wanted to add some power this offseason. I really want to be able to hit 30 home runs; there’s no reason I can’t do that. I’ve noticed a difference in the ball jumping off my bat.”

Fantasy owners are probably salivating over those comments, but it should obviously be taken with a grain of salt.

Sure, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Francoeur revert to his .550 slugging ways, but it’s a tall order for him to complement it with a .290-.300 batting average.

In his 2005 and 2007 seasons combined, Francoeur hit .295 in 899 at-bats. There's no doubt that Francoeur knows how to make contact efficiently, as his BABIP was at least .341 in both of those years.

The number is due to drop at least a bit, but Francoeur's natural ability to spray line drives across the field points to a sustained high batting average for years to come -- especially if he continues to be more patient at the plate.

Basically, there are reasons to believe Francoeur can turn into an elite fantasy producer and put up a .290-30-100 season in 2008 and also reasons to believe that he’ll simply be a solid 3rd fantasy outfielder with a .270-20-90 line.

Long story short, this is why Francoeur may or may not have his true fantasy breakthrough in 2008:

Why:

A solid improvement with his patience at the plate in 2007 points to an increase in quality his at-bats, meaning better fantasy production overall

A three-year improvement in doubles shows that perhaps his power is still developing and will eventually turn into four-baggers

Overall baseball talent is through the roof

Why not:

His fly ball rate has steadily dropped, indicating that perhaps he won’t crack the 30-homer plateau anytime soon

His isolated power has seen a precipitous drop over the past three years

Slugging percentage has progressively dropped in each major league season

The bottom line is, we know Francoeur has all the talent in the world to emerge as a top-tier fantasy outfielder, and there’s no glaring reason to believe he won’t do so in 2008 despite some fluctuating hitting statistics.

I think that his steady increase in walk rate and doubles output are two very good signs. No matter what, he will give solid-to-great fantasy production in at least three categories.

Whether it’s average or homers that go with the runs and RBI is anybody’s guess, but it doesn’t change the fact that he won’t really hurt your fantasy outfield.

Now, as proof that I’m walking the walk and not just talking, I recently drafted Francoeur as my second outfielder in my third-year keeper league that happens to feature a five-outfield roster configuration.

Stay tuned for your French updates throughout the season.

Ray Lin can almost count the days before Opening Day on his two hands and can’t wait to start trotting out his fantasy squads. Anybody looking to show off their fantasy rosters can email him at raywlin@gmail.com.