Pitchers can be far more difficult to project than hitters. On top of dealing with all kinds of injuries, pitching is as much a mind game as it is a test of strength, precision, and flexibility. With that in mind, we've taken a bit of an abnormal approach with pitching prospects this season.
This list gives a good amount of weight to how successful pitchers have been in limiting extra-base hits. Some people say that pitchers have little control over the kind of contact they allow. We don't buy into that line of thinking. The rankings below are a test of the hypothesis that the pitchers who do the best job limiting extra-base hits and walks are the pitchers who will find the most success in the big leagues.
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP BOS (8/14/84), ETA: 2008
Buchholz has the best combination of upside and track record on this list. He has excellent command of four pitches, including a power fastball and curve, allowing him to blow hitters away one time through the lineup and baffle them the next. His strikeout rate rose from 29.7% in 2006 to 33.0% in 2007, the second highest K% of any pitcher on this list. Buchholz could develop into a No. 1-2 starter for a playoff caliber team.
2. Joba Chamberlain, RHP NYY (9/23/85), ETA: 2008
Owner of the highest 2007 strikeout rate on this list (38.7%), Chamberlain has already proven that he can make major league hitters look foolish. The primary reason we have him below Buchholz is that he yet to prove he can handle pitching over 150.0 innings a season. But there's certainly a case to be made that Chamberlain could develop into the most dominant starter on this list.
3. Clayton Kershaw, LHP LAD (3/19/88), ETA: 2008
If not for his high walk rate (12.9% last season), we would have considered ranking Kershaw No. 1 here. Just two major league pitchers who threw more than 100.0 innings last season walked over 12.0% of the batters they faced -- Noah Lowry (12.5%) and Byung-hyun Kim (12.1%), neither was particularly effective. There's plenty to like here, though. The lefty had a strikeout rate of 31.3% in 2007 -- that includes a 27.1% rate as a 19-year-old in Double-A. Given his age, it's not out of the question to expect Kershaw to make a big leap in performance this season. He has ace potential.
4. David Price, LHP TB (8/26/85), ETA: 2008
Utterly dominant in his junior year with Vanderbilt, Price is as good of a bet to become a top-of-the-rotation starter as any recent draft pick. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Kershaw, but he's further along with his ability to command the strike zone (5.9% BB last year). Price didn't throw a regular-season, minor-league pitch last season. He totaled 133.0 innings last year in college, where had a 36.7% strikeout rate. The 6-foot-6, 225-pounder is slated to open the 2007 season in High-A Vero Beach. We'll be surprised if he makes more than five starts there before moving on to Double-A.
5. Jake McGee, LHP TB (8/6/86), ETA: 2008
McGee lowered his walk rate from 11.6% in 2006 to 9.1% in 2007. What's more, 11.5% of his 2007 walk total came from one six-walk game -- his Double-A debut when he was admittedly nervous. Though some people doubt his secondary arsenal, the 6-foot-3, 235-pounder struck out 30.8% of the batters he faced last season, including 30.3% in 23.1 Double-A innings. We think McGee's long-term home will be in the rotation, where he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
6. Johnny Cueto, RHP CIN (2/15/86), ETA: 2008
If Cueto (right) wasn't under six feet tall, he would have been touted as one of the game's top pitching prospects years ago. He was phenomenal in Low-A (2006) -- 28.1% K vs. 5.8% BB. But it wasn't until he improved upon those numbers in Double-A (30.6% K vs. 4.4% BB) that more eyes started opening to him. Now Cueto is making a case for opening 2008 in the Reds' rotation.The Dominican native has top-of-the-rotation potential.
7. Homer Bailey, RHP CIN (5/3/86), ETA: 2008
Signed for 657 times as much as Cueto, Bailey was a top ten overall pick in 2004. But due to injuries and bouts of inconsistency, the 6-foot-4, 205-pounder hasn't been able to earn a permanent rotation spot with the Reds. Bailey's strikeout rate (24.1% since 2005) lends to his ceiling while his walk rate (11.4% since 2005) leaves room for doubt. Full of upside and risk, I kind of see him as the Fernando Martinez of pitching prospects right now.
8. Rick Porcello, RHP DET (12/27/88), ETA: 2009
Set to start his pro career in High-A, Porcello owns the largest signing bonus given to a prep pitcher in the last six years. The 6-foot-5, 200-pounder has three pitches that could be above-average. High school arms are among the riskiest draft-day commodities. And given what the Tigers have invested in him, Porcello will be viewed as a disappointment by many if he fails to become a top-of-the-rotation starter.
9. Ian Kennedy, RHP NYY (12/19/84), ETA: 2008
While Kennedy's 2007 strikeout rate was pretty overwhelming (27.9%), his walk rate wasn't (9.2%). In addition to his ability to miss bats, Kennedy also had a lot of success limiting extra-base hits last season (0.72 isolated power against). We believe pitchers have a good amount of control over the kind of contact they allow. Some people think the type of contact a pitcher allows is almost completely out of control. If Kennedy can consistently limit extra-base hits the way he did last season, he could become a No. 2. If his extra-base-hit rates have indeed been a product of luck, he may struggle to be more than a No. 3. We're taking a risk that most people aren't by ranking him here.
10. Gio Gonzalez, LHP OAK (9/19/85), ETA: 2008
An excellent bet to become at least a No. 3 starer with No. 2 upside, Gonzalez (right) paced Double-A starters in strikeout rate -- by a healthy amount -- last season (30.3%). He also had the second-lowest FIP at the level (2.93) -- trailing Jack Egbert's 2.55. Walks and home runs have been problems for Gonzalez in the past. Repeating Double-A in 2007, he made strides with both last season (11.8% BB in 2006 vs. 9.3% in 2007; HR every 28.5 batters vs. every 61.1). Gonzalez will likely spend the bulk of 2008 in Triple-A. He could find a permanent home in Oakland's rotation prior to his 23rd birthday.
11. Franklin Morales, LHP COL (1/24/86), ETA: 2008
Though he has been brought along quickly, Morales hasn't performed particularly well over his last two minor league seasons. The weak point in the 6-foot, 170-pounder's game has been his tendency to walk batters (12.8% in the minors since '06). His strikeout rate has been solid (23.7%) and he does a good job inducing ground balls. Morales has No. 2 potential but he'll need to find a good balance between trying to get swing throughs by pitching up in the zone and challenging hitters in the zone to reach it. And it's not a given that he'll made that advancement.
12. Wade Davis, RHP TB (9/7/85), ETA: 2008
Davis' strikeout rate dropped by 5.1% from High-A (28.9) to Double-A (23.8) while his walk rate rose 1.9% (6.9 to 8.8). But he gets a good amount of ground balls and the last 1,000+ batters he's faced have had trouble taking him for extra-bases (.094 IsoPA in 2007). In a perfect world, Davis has a chance of being a No. 2. We think it's a lot more realistic to expect him to max out as a good No. 3.
13. Nick Adenhart, RHP LAA (8/24/86), ETA: 2008
One of the better ground-ball pitchers in the Texas League last season, Adenhart is advanced for his age and could spend a considerable amount of time in the big leagues this season. I've seen him overmatch big leaguers with his changeup and breaking ball. So while he's not a pitcher who's going to strike out a ton of hitters (17.3% last season), he has a live fastball and a solid secondary that he'll use to keep hitters guessing. This makes Adenhart a relatively safe bet to develop into a No. 3 starter.
14. Jarrod Parker, RHP ARI (8/24/88), ETA: 2010
Though he's not at the same level as Clayton Kershaw or Rick Porcello, Parker excites me as much as any other prep pitcher who has turned pro over the last three years. It's hard not to be excited about an athletic hurler who can touch 97 MPH with his fastball and back it up with a potentially above-average changup -- source: MiLB.com. Parker has front-of-the-rotation potential, but he still has a lot to prove before he reaches it.
15. Fautino de los Santos, RHP OAK (2/15/86), ETA: 2009
Only one pitcher in the lower minors had a higher strikeout rate than de los Santos' 31.7% last season: Clayton Kershaw. Yes, de los Santos was older than the typical elite pitching prospect in the lower minors. But he started a nearly seamless transition from Low-A to High-A and we think his .088 IsoPA bodes well for his future. The 22-year-old may be challenged to replicate his success in the upper minors and do it over the course of more than 150.0 innings this year. If he passes with flying colors, he could come out looking like a potential No. 2 starter.
16. Aaron Laffey, LHP CLE (4/15/85), ETA: 2008
Laffey's about as overpowering on the mound as David Eckstein is at the plate. But like Eckstein, he's scrappy -- just kidding. Laffey's 64.0% ground ball rate (AA/AAA/MLB) led all starters in the upper minors last season. And only Fausto Carmona, Derek Lowe, and Brandon Webb matched or bettered that rate in the bigs. What do these pitchers have on Laffey? Size, bulk, track record?
I'm not saying Laffey will ever be a dominant front-of-the-rotation starter. But how highly touted were Carmona, Lowe, and Webb as prospects? Suppose Laffey strikes out fewer batters than these guys while walking fewer? That could make him a No. 3, right? Perhaps it's time we start recognizing extreme-ground-ball pitchers for what they are opposed to the strikeout pitchers that so many of them aren't? There's a lot more to pitching than striking batters out. And Laffey has it.
17. Sean Gallagher, RHP CHC (12/30/85), ETA: 2008
Though he was a disaster in his 14.2 big league relief innings last season, Gallagher was a solid arm in Double-A and Triple-A. His walk rate has been below-average compared to the other players in this list over the last two seasons (10.5%), while his strike out rate has been solid (22.4%). He has also done a very good job limiting extra-base hits. We see Gallagher as a potential No. 3. The Cubs may also be tempted to try him out as a power reliever.
18. Aaron Thompson, LHP FLA (2/28/87), ETA: 2009
The 22nd pick of the 2005 Draft, Thompson has given up just 16 home runs through 301.3 pro innings -- and 12 of those came in the extremely home-run-friendly Greensboro in 2006. Thompson allowed just two home runs last season while pitching in the extremely pitcher-friendly Jupiter. The 6-foot-3, 195-pounder's 18.6% strikeout rate since 2006 isn't overwhelming, but his 6.6% walk rate and strong ground-ball tendencies make him a decent bet to become a No. 3 starter.
19. Trevor Cahill, RHP OAK (3/1/88), ETA: 2010
Owner of one of the most impressive full-season pitching debuts in the minors last season, Cahill is a good ground-ball pitcher (59% GB last season) who can miss bats (26.8% K). He didn't start pitching until last May, so he only threw 105.1 innings in 2007. And his 9.2% walk rate is mediocre. But his .077 IsoPA is extremely impressive -- allowed just 21 extra-base hits in 19 starts. We're expecting a breakout season from Cahill. He has No. 2-3 upside.
20. Kevin Mulvey, RHP MIN (5/26/85), ETA: 2008
Of all the guys the Mets gave up to acquire Johan Santana, Mulvey could easily wind up being the best big leaguer. He led Eastern League starters with over 90.0 innings in FIP last season (3.16) and was second in GB% (55). Mulvey's 17.2% strikeout rate wasn't that sexy but his 6.7% walk rate helps make up for it. It's not a given that he'll be able to retire MLB hitters at close to the same frequency that he did in Double-A. But he rarely gave up extra-base-hits last season (.077 IsoPA) and he's relatively polished. Mulvey's upside is likely as a No. 3. And he's close to reaching it.
21. Brett Anderson, LHP OAK (2/1/88), ETA: 2009
Anderson walked just 10 batters in 81.1 Low-A innings while producing a 2.16 FIP and the Diamondbacks decided he was ready for High-A. His walk rate doubled with the promotion (3.1% to 6.2%) and his strikeout rate dipped from 26.1% to 22.6%. The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder missed almost all of August due to arm fatigue and a mild concussion (car accident). Anderson's a good ground-ball pitcher who could be a good No. 3 starter and maybe even a No. 2. He figures to spend at least half of the 2008 season in High-A Stockton.
22. Jair Jurrjens, RHP ATL (1/29/86), ETA: 2008
Jurrjens pitched 30.2 big league innings as a 21-year-old last season and he showed some promise. A pitcher who relies on throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground more than overpowering hitters, the Curacao native has a 18.9% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate over the past two seasons. His .135 IsoPA worries us a bit but he's still an OK bet to become a No. 3 starter in the long run.
23. Justin Masterson, RHP BOS (3/22/85), ETA: 2008
Looking for a breakout pitching prospect? Masterson (right) is a ground-ball pitcher with Brandon Webb upside. The reason he isn't higher on this list is because he he has thrown fewer than 200.0 pro innings and has already suffered a pair of groin strains and a strained calf. But if he can piece together a healthy 2008...lookout! Masterson opened 2007 in home-run friendly Lancaster before being promoted to Portland. Once he was out of Lancaster, he took off -- 66% ground ball, 24.7% K, 3.18 FIP. A full season worth of pitching like he did in the second half and Masterson will be looking like a decent bet to become a No. 2.
24. Tyler Robertson, LHP MIN (12/23/87), ETA: 2010
Pitching in the same league, Robertson had a better Low-A FIP than Clayton Kershaw last season (2.33 vs. 2.85). But his strikeout numbers weren't quite as dominant at Kershaw's (29.2% vs. 32.4%). Maybe we haven't done enough of our homework here, but I've heard that lefthanders who have good fastballs can dominate in the lower minors when batters are still learning to hit good lefties. That said, Robertson also had a promising ground-ball rate (57%). He still has a lot to prove but Robertson has No. 2 upside.
25. Chris Volstad, RHP FLA (9/23/86), ETA: 2008
Volstad is similar to Adenhart in that he's a good ground-ball pitcher -- but not an extreme one -- who has been promoted aggressively. The difference between the two is that Adenhart has spent more time in the upper minors -- Double-A for both -- and been a better pitcher (3.90 FIP vs. 4.17 FIP). Volstad does, however, have a the better 2007 walk rate of the two (6.3% vs. 9.7%), through Adenhart has him in strikeouts (17.3% vs. 15.9%). I'm not using Adenhart to try to knock Volstad down. My reason for comparing them is to show how close Volstad is to being a consensus top 50 prospect and a good bet to become a No. 3 starter. A healthy season with normal progression and the 6-foot-7, 190-pounder will be right there.
26. Matt Latos, RHP SD (12/9/87), ETA: 2009
A 2006 draft-and-follow who signed for first-round money, Latos had an extraordinary pro debut. The 6-foot-5, 210-pounder struck out 30.1% of the short-season batters he faced while walking 8.9% in 56.1 innings. Given that he was only facing short-season hitters, it's too early to get overly excited about Latos' debut. But he could be in store for a rapid rise in his first full season. We see Latos as a guy with top-of-the-rotation potential.
27. Ross Detwiler, LHP WAS (3/6/86), ETA: 2009
The third college pitcher taken in the 2007 Draft (6th overall), Detwiler spent the bulk of his pro debut in High-A. And he wasn't overwhelming at that level -- 13.0% K, 9.8% BB, 4.37 FIP. Detwiler struck out approximately 29.4% of the college hitters he faced in 2007 while walking 10.2% (89.0 innings). His high walk rates continue to concern us. It's likely that he'll come into 2008 rejuvenated and ready to flash what made him such an elite draft talent. He could be a very good No. 3 or better.
28. Greg Reynolds, RHP COL (7/3/85), ETA: 2008
Reynolds was very impressive in 50.2 Double-A innings last season (18.4% K, 4.7% BB, 3.00 FIP). If he maintained that pace much longer, he likely would have been moved up to Triple-A and then the big leagues. A solid ground-ball pitcher, Reynolds was very effective in limiting extra-base hits last season (.067 IsoPA). But shoulder tendinitis ended his season in June. The 6-foot-7, 220-pounder has the upside to be a good No. 3 and maybe even a No. 2. Shoulder injuries are not to be taken lightly, though. That's why we don't have him higher here.
29. Michael Bowden, RHP BOS (9/9/86), ETA: 2008
It's unlikely that Bowden will become more than a No. 4 starter, though he's a solid bet to reach that ceiling. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder has been brought along quickly and performed well all the while (23.4% K, 6.9% BB since 2006). Bowden had the highest FIP of his career during his Double-A stint last season (3.94 FIP). 2008 could be a year full of adjustments for Bowden. But if he progresses as much as he did last season, he could be in line to appear in the big leagues prior to his 22nd birthday.
30. Deolis Guerra, RHP MIN (4/17/89), ETA: 2009
Guerra has a big body (6-foot-5, 200-pounds) and he opened the 2007 season as a 17-year-old in High-A. He made strides in his walk rate last season (11.8% in 2006, 6.7% in 2007) but his strikeout rate went from 19.6% to 17.8%. Steady progress. The problem is Guerra missed almost all of May with shoulder tendinitis then more time in August with the same injury. Yes, he's an extremely talented youngster and we like him -- he has been inside our Top 100 since 2006. But it's dangerous to place too much weight in projectability.
Honorable Mentions: Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF), Sean O'Sullivan (RHP, LAA), Cole Rorhbough (LHP, ATL), James Simmons (RHP, OAK), Aaron Poreda (LHP, CHW), Adam Miller (RHP, CLE), Phillippe Aumont (RHP, SEA), Anthony Swarzak (RHP, MIN), Will Inman (RHP, SD), and Kasey Kiker (LHP, TEX).
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.