Nimble athletes with excellent hand-eye coordination and speed, shortstops are a rare breed. A ballplayer can practice playing shortstop his entire childhood only to mature into too bulky of a frame to play the position on the highest stage. And many of the talents who possess the necessary defensive skills to play the position don't hit enough to be impact big leaguers. That's what makes Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Troy Tulowitzki so special.
Notes: The level that appears following each player's name is the highest level where the player has registered over 100 plate appearances. We used an age cutoff of April 1st, 2008.
1. Hanley Ramirez, FLA (12/23/83) - MLB
Though he has his defensive critics, Ramirez is still a big league shortstop and he's one who has no problems at the plate (.332/.384/.562 in 2007). The 6-foot-3, 200-pound speedster ranked 11th in baseball in wOBA last season (.398) -- behind guys like David Ortiz (.432), Alex Rodriguez (.429), Matt Holliday (.417), and David Wright (.405). Given the kind of power jump he made from 2006 to 2007 (.188 IsoP to .230), it's possible that Ramirez could continue to improve that aspect of his game. His abilities to knock the ball out of the park to the opposite field and draw walks will ultimately determine his ceiling.
2. Jose Reyes, NYM (6/11/83) - MLB
Reyes didn't make the same kind of power improvements as Ramirez last season. In fact, he hit for less power as a 24-year-old (.141 IsoP) than he did as a 23-year-old (.187). But most sets of eyes will tell you that Reyes is the better defender and our metrics say he's faster than Ramirez. The most noticeable improvement the 6-foot-1, 200 pounder made last season was in his walk to strikeout rate (0.58 in 2006, 0.98 in 2007) -- his walk rate improved by 4.1% while his strikeout rate decreased by 1.5%. If Reyes can manage to hit for the same kind of power as he did in 2006 while showing 2007's plate discipline, he'll blossom into one of the best hitters in baseball (.280/.352/.421 last season).
3. Troy Tulowitzki, COL (10/10/84) - MLB
We're not ready to put Tulowitzki on the same tier as the players above just yet. Yes, it's likely that he'll continue to play half his games at Coors Field and by most accounts he was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball last season, but his .309 road wOBA isn't that impressive -- that's not much better than Yuniesky Betancourt production. It's hard to deny the 6-foot-3, 205-pounder's potential, though. Tulowitzki hit every bit as well in his rookie season (.292/.357/.481) as he did the previous year in Double-A (.291/.365/.473). And he slugged almost .100 points higher after the All-Star Break than he did before (.531 vs. .432). With Ramirez and Reyes both set to turn 25 in 2008, the 23-year-old is nearly a lock to stand atop this list entering next season.
4. Mike Moustakas, KC (9/11/88) - R
First things first, we don't expect Moustakas to stick at shortstop. His lack of range has been well chronicled, leaving third base and right field -- great arm -- as his probable destinations once he reaches the big leagues. That's right, we just said once. Taken 2nd overall in the 2007 Draft -- a draft that had its share of elite talent -- Moustakas is about as safe of a bet to become a successful big leaguer as any hitter just out of high school. His power bat will play anywhere on the diamond, and it should allow him to ascend through the minors quickly.
5. Reid Brignac, TB (1/16/86) - AA
We've seen Brignac play defense and he impressed us with coordination and range. We've also heard that he has an outstanding work ethic. But it's hard to get too excited about his 2007 offensive production. After batting .260/.327/.433 last season in Double-A, the 6-foot-3, 180-pounder was completely over matched in the Arizona Fall League -- just four XBH in 113 at-bats. An average runner with a solid line-drive hack and good plate approach, Brignac recovered from slow May and June showings with a great second half. He's ticketed to open 2008 in Triple-A Durham and could prove big-league ready by year's end. He's the favorite to enter 2009 as our No. 2 shortstop under 25.
6. Jed Lowrie, BOS (4/17/84) - AAA
Lowrie is another guy who may not have the range to be an everyday shortstop in the big leagues. He grades as a below-average runner in my speed score. The 6-foot, 180-pounder does, however, have considerable offensive upside. While it's unlikely that he'll become a 20 home-run threat, Lowrie hits a ton of doubles and has shown impressive plate discipline, in large -- 14.0% BB in A+/AA (845 PA), 6.8% in AAA (177). The switch hitter is pretty polished, he just may not have a clear path to playing time with Boston. And that's probably why the team's trying to let him prove himself at shortstop before resigning to move him to second.
7. Elvis Andrus, TEX (8/26/88) - A+
Andrus has been solid as a teenager in full-season ball, but he has yet to display much power -- .092 IsoP over 1,117 pro at-bats. One of the fastest players in the minors, the 6-foot, 185-pounder is scheduled to open 2008 in Double-A Frisco. Andrus spent most of 2007 in the Carolina League and Myrtle Beach, a park known for limiting home runs (.062 IsoP at home, .117 on the road). What's puzzling is he didn't hit for much power once he was traded to the Rangers and got to hit in the California League (.073 IsoP). Fatigue maybe? His 9.6% walk and 19.1% strikeout rates as an 18-year-old in High-A speak volumes about his advanced plate approach. Andrus is a safe bet to stick at shortstop and this could be the season that his bat comes to life.
8. Carlos Triunfel, SEA (2/27/90) - A+
An average runner, Triunfel is another guy who we're not sold on at shortstop due to his lack of range -- the video linked in the player page above offers a glimpse of his impressive arm, though. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound Dominican native was challenged with 224 High-A plate appearances during his first full season. And while his ability to make contact is pretty impressive (13.4% K), Triunfel has yet to hit for much power (.059 IsoP) or draw many walks (4.2%). He has plenty of time to gain strength and learn to hit for more power, though such an improvement is a substantial hurdle. Teenagers who are already above Low-A are always fun to follow. There are just too many directions Triunfel's career could head in from here for us to feel comfortable fully backing him.
9. Tim Beckham, GH (1/27/90) - HS
With potential to be the first high schooler taken in the 2008 Draft, Beckham is a unique talent who we're still learning about. Our buddy Jonathan Mayo describes the 6-foot-2, 190-pounder as "a bonafide five-tool player," -- source: MiLB.com. Mayo also notes that Beckham has good hands and range, strong indicators that the Georgia prepster could stick at shortstop professionally. His biggest challenge will be learning to hit for power. Though there are quite a few talented collegiate athletes who are eligible for this June's Draft, at this point we wouldn't be surprised to hear Beckham's name called inside the top five overall picks.
10. Esmailyn Gonzalez, WAS (9/21/89) - R
Gonzalez was arguably a higher-profile talent than Triunfel at this time last year. And while this 5-foot-11, 175-pound Dominican native has yet to show his stuff above rookie ball, he flashed better speed (above-average) and plate discipline (14.5% BB) than Triunfel last season. Gonzalez didn't match Triunfel's success in making contact (.245 batting average vs. .296), and he also didn't hit for much power (.066 IsoP). Still, he's international talent who signed for over $1.0 M. 16-year-olds who sign for seven figures are hardly safe bets to become above-average big leaguers, but they're always worth keeping an eye on.
11. Chris Nelson, COL (9/3/85) - A+
A top 10 overall pick not that long ago, Nelson is fresh off his most productive pro season to date. The 5-foot-11, 175-pounder -- there are quite of few of these on this list -- made substantial strides in his ability to hit for contact (15.3% K vs. 19.6%) as well as power (.212 IsoP vs. .156) last season. An above-average runner, Nelson had a torrent second half (.318/.386/.614, 14 HR). And while he was playing in the California League, Modesto is one of the most difficult places to hit in that league. Nelson could soar in 2008 if he picks up where he left off from the second half of the season.
12. Chin-lung Hu, LAD (2/2/84) - AAA
Coveted for his excellent defensive skills and a bat that could be average or better, Hu's a guy who we've been torn on this offseason. Part of us wants to proclaim him a solid bet to be an average regular or better after his offensive success last season (.321/.359/.457 between AA/AAA/MLB). And part of us wonders if he'll be a good enough contact and power hitter to make up for his lack of walks (5.5% last season). Hu may not be able to top 15 home runs a season in the bigs -- it's worth noting that Double-A Jacksonville and Triple-A Las Vegas are both pretty good parks for hitting home runs. We think Hu will struggle to replicate his 2007 success in the big leagues.
13. Kevin Ahrens, TOR (4/26/89) - R
While we're not going to say Kevin Ahrens has zero chance of playing shortstop in the upper minors and beyond, we're highly doubtful that he has the range for the position -- he's a below-average runner by my speed score. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound switch hitter has the hands and arm to play third base and talent evaluators like his power potential -- Source: MiLB.com. Ahrens isn't getting a ton of buzz right now because he didn't get off to a great start in pro ball (.230/.339/.321 in 193 rookie PA). But a strong 2008 will make that line a distant memory.
14. Oscar Tejeda, BOS (12/26/89) - SS
Tejeda didn't receive the same kind of signing bonus as Triunfel and Gonzalez, but a case can be made that his pro debut was as promising as either of theirs (.296/.345/.397 in 294 rookie/short-season plate appearances). The 6-foot-1, 177-pound Dominican native only grades out as an average runner in my speed score, so I'll be tuned in for reports on his defensive capabilities. It's hard to predict what the future has in store for the 18-year-old at the moment, but the Red Sox paid him six figures to turn pro and has been solid so far in his young career.
15. Hector Gomez, COL (3/5/88) - A
An above-average runner, Gomez is the rawest player over the age of 20 on this list. His career walk (4.6%) and strikeout (19.0%) rates are both well below-average, while his isolated power (.151) is just below average. Add to the list of caution signs that Gomez played in an extreme hitter's environment last season, and it's hard to be all that optimistic about his career at the moment. So why is the 6-foot-1, 157-pounder even on this list? Well, he was a teenager in full-season ball last year. And while we're by no means experts on projecting body types, we'd imagine a guy with Gomez' height could fill out a little more and improve because of it. He's a wild card but he's worth keeping an eye on.
Honorable Mentions: Pete Kozma (STL), Sean Rodriguez (LAA), Gordon Beckham (UGA), Ivan DeJesus (LAD), Charlie Culberson (SF), and Erick Aybar (LAA).
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.