College Hot/Cold Report: Week 6

April 1, 2008

Editor's Note: It's tough to get good information on high schoolers without attending showcase events or talking to knowledgable talent evaluators, but there's enough buzz around a few high schoolers each season that even non-experts can get an idea of what they're about. This week, Lincoln provides some info on high school catcher Kyle Skipworth along with his typical college coverage. If he feels comfortable with it and we feel comfortable with it, we may eventually run some of Lincoln's overall draft rankings.

 

Hot List

James Darnell 3B South Carolina Jr.

A couple weeks into the season Darnell was hitting just .216/.317/.255, but the slugging infielder has seen his stock soar and now sits at a .345/.402/.603 line. As a corner guy without great athleticism, Darnell’s bat will have to carry him to the show – good news is, it is capable of just that. Darnell has more home runs (8) than teammate and possible top 5 pick, Justin Smoak (5). Darnell came into the season as second tier college slugger – just behind the elite group of Alvarez, Smoak, and Yonder Alonso – and is now back on the road towards a possible late first round or supplemental round pick.

 

Kyle Skipworth C HS Riverside, Cali

I haven’t included any high school players in this space before but Skipworth deserves mention in any article devoted to risers/fallers in the draft. The 6-foot-3, 190 pound catcher is the top backstop of most boards. If that last sentence wasn’t true a few weeks ago, it almost has to be by now. Skipworth just ended a five-game stretch in which he did not make an out. He went 18-for-18 with 6 walks and 9 extra base hits. A lefthanded batter with a gorgeous swing, great plate coverage, and solid power potential at a premium position, Skipworth should hear his name called very early on draft day despite the relatively high bust potential of past high school catchers.

 

Dennis Raben OF Miami Jr.

Raben, a preseason All-American, is currently hitting .324/.519/.784 after missing the Hurricane’s first 13 games. A corner outfielder with plus power, Raben has 12 hits this season, nine of those have gone for extra bases. Now fully recovered from a back injury, Raben’s walk rate has increased dramatically from last year (14.3%) to Bonds-ian (37.8%). If Raben can sustain a walk rate anyway near that mark and continue to tally extra-base hits, he could be the first college outfielder taken -- and the Hurricane’s will have a ferocious lineup.

 

Gordon Beckham SS Georgia Jr.

I’m running out of superlatives for Gordon Beckham, so this blurb will be short. Gordon Beckham is good at hitting baseballs. After a bad Friday and Saturday in which he was just 1-for-9 – granted that one was a homer – his season line is now down, down to .442/.512/.929.

 

Aaron Crow RHP Missouri Jr.

Crow dominated a good hitting Texas Tech team on Friday, holding the Red Raiders scoreless through eight innings, striking out nine while scattering three hits. Crow’s control was not as phenomenal as usual. He issued four walks and needed 121 pitches to get past the 30 batters he faced. After 43.1 innings this year, Crow has a sick 60/11 strikeout to walk ratio. And even though it doesn’t mean that much in the grand scheme of things, his 0.84 ERA is pretty cool to look at. When I update my College Draft Prospect Rankings, Crow will be at the top. Coming into the season I was a little skeptical that he would be able to maintain his control with his added velocity. I am no longer skeptical abut Crow at all. He is the No. 1 prospect in the land, but the gap is not insurmountable.

 

Brian Matusz LHP San Diego Jr.

While Crow’s accent to the top of the rankings has been helped by a Pedro Alvarez injury, Matusz has not done much of anything to give up his title of “best pitching prospect.” This past Friday, Matusz lead the San Diego Toreros to a 1-0 victory against in-state foe Santa Clara. Matusz threw a complete game shutout with eight strikeouts and did not allow a walk. Statistically, Matusz' season has been on par with Crow's. Matusz has hurled 44.2 innings with a 63/12 K/BB ratio. His ability to throw three plus pitches for strikes and the amount of time he has been dominate may make Matusz floor a little higher than Crow’s but right now Crow’s ceiling looks a little higher and he gets the nod. But it’s really close and sure to not be the last time these two force us to change our minds between now and draft time.

 

Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky Jr.

Friedrich has his share of supporters among the readers of this site. I have been skeptical. I worry about Friedrich’s command of his good stuff, which includes a fantastic curve. While 17 walks in 37.2 innings is still on the high side, 54 strikeouts is on the incredible side. In 127 at-bats on the season, opponents have tagged Friedrich for just four extra-base hits, and only one home run. Friedrich is making a strong case to be in the grouping of pitchers behind Crow and Matusz – along with guys like Lance Lynn, Tanner Scheppers, Shooter Hunt, and Ty Ross.

 

Cold List

Brett Hunter RHP Pepperdine Jr.

The Pepperdine Waves have gotten off to a fairly disappointing 17-8 record and a big part of that is the fact that their ace has only been able to start 2 games. Fresh off a summer of wowing scouts with Team USA, Hunter was poised to position himself as a high first round pick. But all the mid-90’s fastballs in the world can only do so much if you’re not on the field. Head Coach Steve Rodriquez said that Hunter would be out until “mid-April” while resting his injured forearm. Hunter needs to show that he can be more than a guy with good fastball velocity and little else. Right now he looks like a future reliever and those guys need to be really special to warrant first round selection.

 

Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@dentonoutlaws.com.