Top 10 Corner Outfielders Under 25

April 3, 2008

By ranking Justin Upton, Hunter Pence, and Fernando Martinez as center fielders, we took away a fair amount of potential depth from this list. But the fact of the matter is that there aren't as many talented, young corner outfielders as center fielders. Though Ryan Braun and Travis Buck had very impressive rookie seasons, Adam Lind struggled mightily and Delmon Young showed that he still has a lot to prove. We have Braun, Kemp, and Hermida well ahead of the rest of the players on this list, but No. 4-7 are all closely grouped for us.

Notes: The level that appears following each player's name is the highest level where the player has registered over 100 plate appearances. We used an age cutoff of April 3rd, 2008.

 

1. Ryan Braun, MIL (11/17/83) - MLB

Braun failed to prove that his defense was good enough for the infield last season. But as good as his bat is that doesn't really matter. Selected 5th overall in 2005, the University of Miami product has already established himself as one of the best sluggers in the game. Braun's .310 isolated power ranked 5th in baseball last season -- behind Carlos Pena (.345), Alex Rodriguez (.332), Prince Fielder (.330), and Ryan Howard (.316). All in all, he hit .324/.370/.634 with 34 home runs in 493 plate appearances. If he can replicate that kind of success over 650+ plate appearances this season, Braun will be the National League's MVP.

 

2. Matt Kemp, LAD (9/23/84) - MLB

Kemp may just be a 500 at-bat season away from becoming a 25+ home-run man. The 6-foot-2, 230-pounder is coming off a stellar season (.338/.374/.529 in 484 MLB/AAA PA). And though it's unlikely that he'll be able to replicate that kind of success in 2008, he could be 90% as good and still be an above-average hitter. Kemp has power to all fields and a good line-drive stroke. The Oklahoma native's low walk rate (5.4% last season) may limit his ceiling, but we think he's in line for a breakout year that will put him among the game's top talents.

 

3. Jeremy Hermida, FLA (1/30/84) - MLB

A dissapointing 2006 season disbanded the bulk of Hermida's bandwagon. Fifty-one extra-base-hits in the big leagues later and he's well on his way toward winning his old following back and then some. But while his .296/.369/.501 season was very impressive, the former first rounder (2002, 11th overall) continues to have injury problems. Hermida's currently on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring -- he missed the first month and a half of 2007 with a bruised right knee. Hermida's hamstring injury likely played a big role in his slow start to 2007 (.231/.322/.422 before the All-Star Break). After the break, he has one of the best hitters in baseball (.340/.401/.555). If Hermida can get healthy and return with the kind of momentum he carried the second half of last season, he'll hit 25+ home runs and surface as one of the best young hitters in the game.

 

4. Nick Markakis, BAL (11/17/83) - MLB

Markakis blossomed as a power hitter in his second big-league season (.157 IsoP in 2006, .186 in 2007). We have the Orioles right fielder behind Kemp and Hermida as a tribute to their ceilings, not because we don't believe in Markakis. Markakis hit .300/.362/.486 with 43 doubles and 23 home runs last season -- he's already an above-average big leauger. The former fist rounder (2003, 7th overall) has power to all fields, a good plate approach, and an excellent chance to continue to get better.

 

5. Delmon Young, MIN (9/14/85) - MLB

There's still a chance that Young will never become an above-average big leaguer. He wasn't overly impressive as a rookie (.288/.316/.408), and with that kind of on-base percentage (3.8% BB), he'll need to slug a ton in order to flourish in the bigs. Young's last stellar power season was 2005 (.246 IsoP, AA). Though he may never find that kind of power in the bigs. we think he'll blossom as a power hitter. And that's why he ranks this high. The majority of Young's 2007 home runs went to center field. That figure speaks volumes not only about his power potential but about his plate approach as well. Still just 22 years old, Young could turn into an above-average power threat who hits enough line drives to maintain a solid batting average.


6. Travis Buck, OAK (11/18/83) - MLB

Though he has yet to turn in a full, healthy season (signed in 2005), Buck has found success in each of his pro assignments. The Arizona State product isn't much of a home-run threat but he walks (10.3% career) and doubles a lot. Buck missed the second half of August and all of September after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. He was batting .288/.372/.474 at the time -- almost exactly the same as his 2006 Double-A line (.302/.371/.472). There really aren't many players with Buck's kind of skill set in the big leagues right now, so some people may have trouble recognizing his talent. But we think the lefty will win a lot of them over with his production.

 

7. Travis Snider, TOR (2/2/88) - A

Our website came to life around the same time as Snider's career. We've followed him closely and he's one of our favorites. But rest assured, there's no bias in this ranking. We've run his numbers through the same program that we use for everyone else and his unamended value earned him this spot. Snider mashed his way through the Midwest League (.212 IsoP) -- a pitcher-friendly league -- then replicated that success in the AFL (.225). The 5-foot-11, 245-pounder is built like Matt Stairs...or Prince Fielder. So despite being very athletic and having good baseball instincts, he may not be able to stick as a corner outfielder. Snider is ticketed to open 2008 in Double-A. If everything goes according to plan, he could be in the big leagues before the end of the season -- and his 21st birthday.

 

8. Jeff Francoeur, ATL (1/8/84) - MLB

Francoeur made substantial improvements from 2006 to 2007. Now the question becomes: Can he do it again? The 24-year-old raised his on-base percentage by 52 points last season (.286 to .338), but that increase came with a 38 point decrease in isolated power (.189 to .151). Overall, Francoeur was a streaky, slightly below-average hitter. His defense and intensity tricked a lot of people into thinking he was better than his .293/.338/.444 line says he was. If the 2002 first rounder (23rd overall) can regain his 2006 power while maintaining his 2007 on-base percentage, he will become a well-above-average regular (.289/.340/.478?) in 2008. If not, he may only be a slightly above-average hitter.

 

9. Matt LaPorta, MIL (1/8/85) - A

Best suited for first base, LaPorta likely wouldn't be playing outfield if he was in any other organization. But the Brewers have Prince Fielder and LaPorta's bat is among the most polished of any 2007 Draftee. The University of Florida product was a bit of a surprise pick at No. 7 overall last June, though looking at it now the decision makes sense. LaPorta has 30+ home run potential. We're not certain that he'll draw many walks in pro ball and his strikeout rate could be high. His value will be dependent on how hard he hits the ball -- line drives in the gap/off the wall and home runs. Expect LaPorta to spend a good portion of 2008 in the upper minors, where he'll be writing about his experiences for MiLB.com.

 

10. Jose Tabata, NYY (8/12/88) - A+

Still a teenager, Tabata's already looking like at least a potential average regular. And 2008 could be a breakout year for him. The $550,000 international signee batted .307/.371/.392 last season in the Florida State League -- a tough place to hit. He'll need to provide a lot more power this season to improve his prospect stock, but his ability to make contact is promising, especially given his age. A good season in Double-A could catapult Tabata to unanimous top 25 overall prospect status.

 

Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez (OAK), Jason Heyward (ATL), and Michael Burgess (WAS).

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.