With the season finally upon us, baseball has been the only thing I’ve been able to think about lately.
However, there is a particular memory from this past NFL season that sticks in my mind when I look over the landscape of the upcoming seven months of fantasy baseball.
In a FOX commercial, Seattle
Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck shares an anecdote
involving fan letters flooding his mailbox at Qwest Field.
One of them requests a Brett Favre autograph.
With a wide grin on his face from simple realization, Hasselbeck confesses, “I definitely have not arrived yet.”
In fantasy baseball, there are plenty of players who have shown great potential in recent years and have warranted a place on many fantasy rosters but have received little love.
Taking a cue from Mr. Hasselbeck, I’ve decided that it’s my duty to give the appropriate shoutouts to the players in baseball who are knocking on the door of fantasy greatness and that owners should look out for this season. Specifically, I’ll focus on guys in the 25-30 age range.
To gauge the “love” given by owners to these players, I’ll be using this week’s ownership and usage (starting) according to CBS Sportsline league statistics.
If there's a 2008 version of Carlos Pena's fantasy arrival, we hope that we've captured him on this list.
Alas, here is my 2008 Fantasy All-Arrival Team for each position:
Catcher – Chris Snyder, ARI (48% owned, 33% started)
2007 stats: 326 AB, .252/.342/.433, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 37 R
Despite popping 10 homers in 214 at-bats, Miguel Montero showed little else (.224/.292/.397) to convince the Diamondbacks brass he was ready to slide in as their full-time catcher in 2007. As a result, Snyder stepped in and posted his second-straight season of a .773+ OPS and providing solid second-catcher value to fantasy owners. This season, the native Texan looks primed to take another step up. In 161 post All-Star break at-bats, Snyder compiled a rock-solid .292/.386/.503 line. To put that into perspective, that OPS was 79 points higher than Victor Martinez’s and 76 more than Russell Martin’s in the second half. With Montero looking like less of a threat to take his job, Snyder could give that kind of quality production over a full season and settle in as a solid mid-tier fantasy catcher.
2008 prediction: 412 AB, .264/.348/.478, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 42 R
First Base – Mike Jacobs, FLA (29% owned, 15% started)
2007: 426 AB, .265/.317/.458, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 57 R
I’ve touted Jacobs as a middle-tier fantasy first baseman ever since his brief outburst with the Mets in 2005 (.310/.375/.710 in 100 AB), and 2008 may be the year he truly utilizes that power for a full season. The former catcher has shown flashes of power with 48 homers in his first 995 major league at-bats. Jacobs also has the tools to post a solid batting average as a quality opposite-field hitter. In a lineup that lost its biggest power bat to the Tigers (Miguel Cabrera), Josh Willingham and Dan Uggla will be expected to provide some pop behind Hanley Ramirez. But don’t be surprised if Jacobs out-homers both Willingham and Uggla.
2008 prediction: 511 AB, .275/.334/.486, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 64 R
Second Base – Brendan Harris, MIN (19% owned, 7% started)
2007: 521 AB, .286/.343/.434, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 72 R
Even with a lineup that boasts a former MVP and batting champion, the Twins will struggle to score runs this year. That being said, their middle infield production should be much better than last year’s league-worst tandem of Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto, and Harris should be a good reason why. Though Harris' strikeout and groundball rates got worse with every one of his promotions in 2006, he cut his K-rate to 16.6% while hitting balls on the ground in less than half of his plate appearances. While Harris also walked a career-worst 7.5% of the time in 2007, hitting in front of good on-base guys like Mauer, Cuddyer and Kubel should rub off on the 27-year old. Harris won’t emerge as the next Brandon Phillips of the position by any means, but he will be a very solid MI option in mixed leagues and especially AL-only leagues for his respectable production.
2008 prediction: 525 AB, .279/.341/.421, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 73 R
Third Base – Hank Blalock, TEX (91% owned, 61% started)
2007: 208 AB, .293/.358/.543, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 32 R
Remember when the Rangers looked like they would have one of the best corner infields in baseball? With all due respect to Ben Broussard, that is all but a pipedream now with Teixeira pairing up with Chipper Jones in Atlanta. On the other hand, Broussard and Blalock should still be a productive corner duo, as Blalock could very well return to his elite 2004 form after tearing the cover off the ball in limited 2007 play. Especially with the loss of Teixeira, Blalock will be looked upon to carry much of the Rangers’ offensive load. By the looks of things from the second half of last year (.313/.405/.656), he may already be ready. Consider it an early warning of what’s to come for Hammerin’ Hank in 2008.
2008 prediction: 512 AB, .284/.352/.504, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 92 R
Shortstop – Yunel Escobar, ATL (94% owned, 84% started)
2007: 319 AB, .326/.385/.451, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 54 R, 5 SB
When your organization deals away its .332-hitting shortstop to make room for you, it’s safe to say it thinks pretty highly of you. But then again, Escobar was hitting .333 for AAA Richmond before getting called up by Atlanta, so I guess you could also say it’s addition by subtraction. Whichever way you look at it, the Braves essentially dealt Renteria and a chunk of his hefty salary to allow a youngster to slide in who could be just as talented. While Escobar has progressively walked less on each step up to a high level, he has also steadily cut down on the strikeout rate while upping his ISOP. Renteria may have the better supporting cast in Mo-town, but Escobar should still have no problem at least matching his fantasy production this season.
2008 prediction: 586 AB, .315/.356/.432, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 96 R, 15 SB
Outfielders
Josh Hamilton, TEX (98% owned, 86% started)
2007: 298 AB, .292/.368/.554, 19 HR, 47 RBI, 52 R, 3 SB
It’s been quite a ride for J-Ham, but the roller coaster seems to have worked out its kinks and is gearing up for a fluid ride. With ownership in nearly every CBS league, it’s clearly no secret that Hamilton will be of significant fantasy use in 2008, but his talent makes me question the 14% of leagues who aren’t even starting him. Long-recognized as one of the elite five-tool athletes in the game, Hamilton finally showed what it can translate to with the Reds last season. A mid-season injury kept him from putting his skills on display for a full season, but he’s healthy now and should give Ranger fans and fantasy owners alike plenty to be excited about in 2008. Going from one bandbox to another, Hamilton is a serious threat to hit 35 homers and may even have the power to smack 40+ someday. If the immensely talented 27 year-old can stay healthy and on track, he’ll easily the best fantasy asset on this list.
2008 prediction: 516 AB, .291/.365/.548, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 94 R, 7 SB
Austin Kearns, WAS (73% owned, 49% started)
2007: 587 AB, .266/.355/.411, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 84 R
Considered a superior all-around prospect to Adam Dunn at one point before getting excommunicated from the Queen City, Kearns is finally ready for fantasy stardom in DC. Kearns’ overall numbers in 2007 weren’t particularly impressive, but he posted a .285/.390/.461 second-half line. And don’t forget, this guy hit a combined 24 homers to go with an .830 OPS between Cincy and Washington the year before. Finally escaping RFK Stadium should benefit Kearns in the power department, where owners can expect him to provide 25-30 jacks in 2008.
2008 prediction: 575 AB, .273/.358/.466, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 88 R
Franklin Gutierrez, CLE (34% owned, 17% started)
2007: 271 AB, .266/.318/.472, 13 HR, 36 RBI, 41 R, 8 SB
Easily the biggest sleeper in this All-Arrival team’s outfield, Gutierrez could quietly become one of the better bargains in fantasy this season. In limited time with the Indians last season, the former top prospect demonstrated 25+ HR power along with the speed to steal 15+ bases over a full season. Now that he has a firm hold on the right field job in Cleveland, look for him to approach both of those numbers in 2008. Consider Gutierrez a good candidate to do what Corey Hart did in 2007 and confidently plug him in as a second outfielder in deep leagues and a strong third outfielder in 12-teamers.
2008 prediction: 478 AB, .273/.331/.468, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 81 R, 15 SB
With the rest of the best, here is the 2008 All-Arrival Second Team:
C – Mike Napoli: All-or-nothing swing has resulted in David Ross/John Buck-esque batting averages, but combination of patience and power (84 walks and 26 homers in 487 at-bats) points to a serviceable .250-.260 average in 2008 to go with legitimate first-catcher production in other categories.
1B – Ben Broussard: No longer playing in the shadow of Ryan Garko and Richie Sexson, Broussard has first base all to himself in Arlington and will take full advantage in 2008. He's a little old (31) for this list, but the 15-HR power he’s shown over the years should turn into a .280-20-80 season in Ameriquest hitting behind Young, Blalock and Hamilton.
2B – Jayson Nix: He won’t wow you by any means, but Laynce’s younger brother could prove to be a nice middle infield bargain especially in NL-only leagues. Take Nix as an endgame option in deep leagues for his Tadahito Iguchi-like upside of a 15/15 season.
3B – Jorge Cantu: In the sense of direct comparisons, Cantu would seem like the perfect candidate to be labeled this year’s Carlos Pena, but is a long shot to match his breakout .286-28-117 campaign. Now four years removed from that season, Cantu will be given every opportunity by the depleted Marlins to take control of the third base job and show his 2005 wasn’t a fluke.
SS – Stephen Drew: Neither Alex Gordon or Drew lived up to their rookie expectations, but those were ridiculous to begin with. Drew finished his first full major league season strong with a September that saw season-best rates in GB% (30%), LD% (24%) and wOBA (.332). Consider Drew a solid bet for 15 HR and a dozen steals as a sophomore.
OF – Carlos Quentin: Quentin has already made an appearance on my All-Breakout Honorable Mentions list, so consider this repeat an emphasis on his potential this season. Jerry Owens is coming back from the disabled list, but Ozzie Guillen shouldn’t be able to keep Quentin and his 30-HR ability on the bench as long as he’s healthy.
OF – Nate McLouth: The Bucs outfielder quietly put together one of the best second halves in baseball, clubbing 12 homers and swiping 16 bags in 217 at-bats after the All-Star break. Now that he’s fought off Nyjer Morgan for the center field job, look for McLouth to translate that second half into a 20/20 season in 2008.
OF – Rick Ankiel: Truly the epitome of a comeback player, the only player on this list who rivals Ankiel's power potential is Hamilton. The former Cardinal pitching prospect slugged .535 in 172 major league at-bats last year, and should easily top 25 HR given 500 at-bats.
Ray Lin knows that baseball season has truly arrived because Mr. Hasselbeck's commercial has been replaced by gems like these. For anyone who wants to share a personal favorite or just rag on his 2008 predictions, Ray can be reached at raywlin@gmail.com.