Renegade Pick Checkup: PP

April 15, 2008

We didn't know it at the time, but on February 18th, 2008 Project Prospect adopted 12 prospects.

These players appeared on our 2008 Top 100 prospect list but did not crack Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, or Mound Talk's. This doesn't mean these publications don't know about our 12. They may have strongly considered putting them in their Top 100s. But right or wrong, we stuck our necks out for them more than the publications above. They're our renegade picks. And we intend to follow their every moves closely from here on out -- actually, that would be kind of creepy. Let's just look at some numbers:


Aaron Laffey, LHP CLE Triple-A: Laffey's too good for Triple-A. The 23-year-old -- it's his birthday today -- has a FIP around 3.10 through 114.1 Triple-A innings. A groundball machine, Laffey has a 66% GB rate this season to go along with 13 strikeouts, 4 walks, and 20 hits (5 XBH, 4 2B, 1 HR) through 18.0 innings. He may not be top-of-the-rotation material, but Laffey could be a very good No. 3 starter in the bigs. He'll get another chance soon enough (49.1 MLB IP in '07).

Aaron Thompson, LHP FLA Double-A: Fresh off an outing in which he matched his 2007 season high walk total (5), Thompson has now walked eight batters through 10.0 Double-A innings (42 TBF). But he has also struck out eight, only given up one extra-base-hit -- a double -- and gotten a ton of ground balls (76%). So he's not dominating but he's not getting roughed up by any means.

Kevin Mulvey, RHP MIN Triple-A: Mulvey has been excellent through his frist two Triple-A starts: 10.2 IP (44 TBF), 9 hits (1 XBH, 3B), 13 strikeouts, 3 walks, 57% ground-ball rate. We think he'll ultimately be the best player the Twins acquired when they dealt Johan Santana to the Mets -- Minnesota also received Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Phil Humber.

Jesus Montero, C NYY Low-A: We're not very well versed when it comes to evaluating fresh international talent. What we do know is: big bonus + aggressive promotions = worth following. Montero is the second-youngest player in Low-A -- only Angel Villalona is younger. The Yankee prospect was very impressive as a 17-year-old in the GCL last season (.350 wOBA). Still, he didn't get a lot of love from our peers. But we're pretty sure that if he keeps up his .381 wOBA pace (53 PA), Montero will be a consensus Top 50 prospect entering 2009.

Sean O'Sullivan, RHP LAA High-A: Coming off five no-hit innings, O'Sullivan has had trouble with free passes to date (10.4% BB through 16.0 innings, 67 TBF) -- he walked 6.1% last season. But everything else has gone well for the big righty: 14 K, 9 hits (3 XBH, 2 B, HR), and a 47% GB rate.

Anthony Swarzak, RHP MIN Double-A: Swarzak's going to find himself in Triple-A before long at his current pace: 10.0 IP (37 TBF), 6 H (2 XBH, both 2B), 8 K, and 1 BB. He had a 3.39 FIP last year in Double-A (86.1 IP, 354 TBF).

James Simmons, RHP OAK Double-A: Simmons has started two games and gone three innings both times (28 TBF). He has been pretty good through those six innings: 8 hits (all singles), 1 BB, 6 K. The control specialist now has nine walks through 36.2 Double-A innings (5.4%).

Chris Parmelee, RF MIN Low-A: Drafted 20th overall in 2006, Parmelee reached Low-A Beloit the year he was drafted. Almost two laps around the sun later and he's still there. But this time may not be for long. The lefty has a .478 wOBA (1.171 OPS) through his first 38 plate appearances this season. Seven of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases (3 2B, 3B, and 3 HR; .437 IsoP). The only flaw we see with Parmelee's production to date is that he's still striking out a lot (26.3%) -- one percent lower than last year. Still, the 20-year-old may be in line for a breakout year.

Jeffrey Locke, LHP ATL Low-A: Though he's allowed 12 earned runs through 13.0 innings, Locke hasn't pitched terribly so far. He has 11 strikeouts, 4 walks, and has given up 17 hits (four for extra bases, three doubles and a triple).

Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS WAS: He's in extended spring training.

Kevin Ahrens, 3B TOR Low-A: Playing third base exclusively to date, Ahrens hasn't hit for power (.048 IsoP). But his walk rate is through the roof (19.6% in 51 PA) and he's making decent contact (.293 batting average, 19.6% K). Ahrens still has a lot to prove. It's highly unlikely that he'll be able to work his way up the minors as a walk specialist. His .366 wOBA say he's doing something right so far, though.

Cody Johnson, RF ATL Low-A: Johnson's torrid stint in rookie ball (.420 wOBA) made a statement last season. Something along the lines of, "Send me to Rome please." OK, Cody. Let's see what you've got. So far he hasn't had it. Johnson's strikeout (39.1%) and walk (2.2%) rates are atrocious (46 PA). He's still hitting for a lot of power (10 hits, 3 2B, 3 HR, .267 IsoP) and his line-drive rate is impressive (23%). Johnson has enough power to continue to rise through the minors at a steady pace. But his strikeout rate should catch up to him eventually.

It may take a decade before we know who made the best renegade picks on their 2008 Top 100s -- renegade picks can be seen for the publications above here. But this is just the beginning. There are enough prospect rankers out there now that peer review can and should be conducted; we intend to do just that. This is just the beginning.

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.