With the MLB Amateur Draft only about five weeks away, loyal fans are already starting to think about who their team could be taking with its first pick. While I'm still learning about the draft, I've spent a lot of time studying potential first-round talents. And I'm starting to get a feel for how this year's potential first rounders compare to the top 30 picks from 2006 and 2007.
One of the main differences I see in the 2008 class from the previous two years is a lack of elite pitching talent. This year doesn't have the wealth of high-upside high school arms we saw 2007. And there aren't as many potential top-of-the-rotation collegiate arms as 2006.
The Giants, a team that has taken a pitcher with all seven of its Top 25 overall picks since 2000 -- Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson (2007), Tim Lincecum (2006), David Aardsma (2003), Matt Cain (2002), Brad Hennessey (2001), and Boof Bonser (2000) -- may be best off going with a hitter with the fifth overall pick if Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow are off the board. San Francisco resident Michael Gee wants to know who they should persue.
Hi Adam,
In the collective opinion at Project Prospect, Gordon Beckham does not rate in 2008's Top 10 Draft Prospects despite having a season worthy of Player of the Year consideration. I have seen articles suggesting he could go as high as No. 5 to the Giants. Is it his defense and question of his future position that are holding him out of the top 10? And if he would eventually need to move to second base, would he not be the best choice for the Giants given that Nick Noonan is showing some promise in Low-A?
I have also read about recent rumblings that Buster Posey could go at No. 5, again a possible overdraft. Pablo Sandoval is destroying opposing pitching in the Cal League, but I don't know if he can catch well enough to have a future behind the plate for the new "pitching and defense" oriented Giants team. Posey might be a better fit.
The consensus of other experts and PP is that Smoak is the best player available after the Top 4 of Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz. This really puts the Giants in a tough spot, since Angel Villalona appears slotted as the team's first baseman of the future. I would love to see the Giants do with Smoak what the Brewers did with Matt LaPorta. Do you think Smoak is capable of handling left field? Or for that matter, do you think Villalona could handle the outfield?
And if you were Brian Sabean, who would you select at No. 5?
Thanks for your time and input,
Michael Gee
San Francisco
Hey Michael,
Gordon Beckham came in at 11th in our voting and was ranked as high as 7th.
I have heard that his defense at shortstop is questionable. I usually don't inflate or drop a guy's stock for defense unless there's overwhelming evidence that he's either a very good defender up the middle or a terrible defender at a corner outfield position. I'm not sure where Gordon Beckham's ultimate defensive home will be right now. I am, however, I firm believer in not drafting for need. I think it's ALWAYS the best idea to take the best player available.
Drafting for need is for the NFL, where guys can step in and contribute right away. Even baseball's most elite college prospects can easily take over a year and a half to become big-league-ready. So Beckham vs. Nick Noonan or Justin Smoak vs. Angel Villalona or Buster Posey vs. Pablo Sandoval don't even cross my mind. So many things can happen with prospects. That's something to think about in a few years, not now.
That said, I've seen Villalona move around to take grounders at first and he's too big and slow for the outfield. Smoak would be a better bet to succeed as an outfielder. Also, I'm still not close to being sold on Sandoval -- he's in the California League. Let's see what he does in Double-A before we get too excited.
I think Beckham and Posey would both be reaches in the Top 5 right now. The Giants love taking pitchers with their first picks. But I think if Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow are selected before it's their turn to pick, they'll have to consider Smoak, Eric Hosmer, and Yonder Alonso. I don't like Tanner Scheppers as a Top 5 pick, either. Guys with sub-par walk rates in college scare me.
Smoak would be my pick at No. 5 right now if Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Aaron Crow, and Tim Beckham are off the board. The Giants could also send a good message to their fans -- something they seem fixated on trying to do -- by taking Matusz, Alvarez, or Crow if any of them fall due to bonus demands.
Thanks for the thoughtful questions,
Adam
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.