Thanks to the unhuman spring that Steven Strasburg is having mixed with our promise to unearth all of the best prospects, here is a very early look at top 10 sophomores in college baseball who will be eligible for the 2009 MLB draft.
1) Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State
Strasburg would be atop my draft board this year, if he were eligible. The big right-hander has struck out 40.41% of batters faced this year while walking a scant 3.67%. If Tony Gwynn isn’t happy enough with those ridiculous numbers, Strasburg has yet to allow a single home run despite playing the 20th most difficult schedule in a home park that favors hitters (111 PF). Strasburg’s fastball is arguably the best in college ball today. Sitting in the high-90’s with pin point command, it's a big reason why is his FIP is an astonishingly low 0.76 – cross town rival Brian Matusz’s FIP is 2.06 which is astounding in its own right but really puts Strasburg’s season in perspective. There may only be a baseball prospect worth tanking over once every 10 years, and as a Ranger fan, I want Texas to lose out so they can have a shot at a guy that I believe will be widely regarded as the best college pitcher since Mark Prior on draft day ’09.
2) Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri
I gave a mini-scouting report on Gibson in my last Hot/Cold article. The Tiger’s Saturday starter, behind Aaron Crow, has a good shot be to be taken in the top 5 picks next year. Gibson has the potential for three plus pitches and his combination of performance, ceiling, and command are really rare. In just over 63 innings this season, Gibson has struck out 69 and walked 18. (Missouri’s official baseball page does not keep track of HBP or HR’s Allowed so I am unable to calculate his FIP.)
3) Grant Green SS Southern California
Green is probably the best shortstop prospect in America whose last name isn’t Beckham. His upside is similar to Troy Tulowitzki minus a little glove but plus a little power and two working quadriceps. Green started the year off a little slow but has rebounded nicely. And after a 13 game hitting streak was recently snapped he sits at .386/.425/.667 on the season – USC plays in a pitchers park (87 PF) and against very tough competition (2 SoS). Green is a good athlete and efficient base runner (8/9 steals). His power potential is what will really have teams intrigued, .281 IsoP and 40.68 XBH% project very well for a shortstop. With a big spring next year and a bump in his walk rate – he has drawn just 11 free passes this season – he could go in the top 7 picks, like Tulo.
4) Dustin Ackley 1B North Carolina
Last year’s National Freshman of the Year winner has continued to show off his precocious hitting ability for the Tar Heels this spring. Ackley’s triple slash scores are quite impressive (.387/.489/.591) and his walk rate (17.75%) and speed (15/19 steals) are amazing for a young hitter. The only reason he isn’t ranked No. 2 on the list is because his power is somewhat lacking for a corner guy. Ackley’s isolated power rating is fairly pedestrian for a college slugger (.204) and his extra base hit percentage (30.5%) is also lacking for a guy who plays a position dominated by true sluggers. Ackley actually profiles better as a left fielder than a first baseman where his speed and athleticism would be better used and his power would be less of a blemish. College first basemen tend to slide in most drafts but also tend to be valuable choices. Whether he ever hits more than 15-20 home runs, Ackley will hit for average and get on base at the big league level.
5) Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt
While tall, left-handed, Friday starters for Vanderbilt will draw comparisons to David Price from here to eternity, Minor may come the closest to living up to the sizable shoes left behind by his former teammate. The 6-foot-4 Minor is arguably the best high school pitcher ever in the state of Tennessee. During his high school days, Minor struck out 368 prepsters in 172 combined innings as a junior and senior. His ERA was 0.08 his senior year. Against slightly more stringent competition, Minor has strikeout and walk percentages of 26.70 and 6.83 this spring and is sporting a 3.00 FIP.
6) Kendal Volz RHP Baylor
Volz has one of the best sinkers in college already and much to the dismay of Big-12 hitters it has helped him to solid strikeout and walk rates (26.37% and 9.52 %). He also has a very nice 3.33 FIP while pitching in a hitters park (120 PF) and stiff opposition (18 SoS).
7) Andy Oliver LHP Oklahoma State
Oliver made strong impressions on many scouts with a strong summer showing in The Cape Cod League and has carried over his momentum as the Friday starter for the Cowboys. Even though he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments (138 PF) in college, Oliver’s peripheral statistics verify his studliness. Oliver has maintained a 3.50 FIP and has solid strikeout and walk percentages (24.72%, 10.7%).
8) Jason Kipnis CF Arizona State
While the likes of Brett Wallace, Ike Davis and Petey Paramore will be departing the Sun Devils program this summer, hope is not lost for ASU fans. They still have Jason Kipnis for at least one more season. The speedy center fielder is hitting .327/.458/.595 and is 18-for-19 on attempted steals. He has good power for a center fielder – .268 IsoP and 42 XBH% so far this year – but his defense at a premium position and keen eye at the plate (18.72 BB%) should make him a first round pick next summer.
9) Alex White RHP North Carolina
North Carolina will likely sport the best one-two punch of any rotation in the country with White and super-freshman Matt Harvey next season – outside of Strasburg teamed with another live human being at San Diego State. White has been very productive this year with a sparkling 2.87 FIP, 26.99 K% and 10.18 BB%.
10) Gavin Brooks LHP UCLA
Brooks’ numbers this spring have been somewhat less gaudy than his redoubtable colleagues on this list, but he has several mitigating factors in his corner. UCLA is one of the few West Coast teams that plays in a hitters park (115 PF) and the Bruins have played the most difficult schedule in the land so far this spring. Brooks has great stuff – he was considered one of the top high school prospects in the country in 2006 but tore his rotator cuff, and as a result slid in the draft and elected to attend college. It’s not like his production is bad – 4.77 FIP and 19.44 K%. One fact that may be worrisome is that Brooks already has more walks (34) this spring than he did all of last year (30) despite throwing slightly fewer than half as many innings. If he can lower his walk rate (13.49 %) next spring and prove that he’s fully healthy, Brooks could go higher in the draft than a few names ahead of him on this list.
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Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@thedentonoutlaws.com.