Remember Chris "Babe" Shelton's unbelievable April two years ago? He hit 10 home runs and finished the month with a .326/.404/.783 vital line. One year later, the 26-year-old was back in the minors. Funny lines can show up early in the season.
Another player is off to a Ruthian start this season. Only this one can be found on the mound: Cliff Lee.
I still don't think Lee's start is for real. And I'll give you three reasons why I'm not confident that he'll continue to be one of the 10 best pitchers in the American League (by FIP if you want to hold me to it):
1) His defense isn't going to continue to be flawless
Cleveland hasn't made an error behind Cliff Lee all season. That's 44.2 innings without an error. Indians' pitchers have completed 321.0 innings this season. Their defense has made 17 errors. That's approximately one error every 18.9 innings. The Indians' defense averaged approximately one error every 19.1 innings last season. So they owe Lee at least a couple and will eventually make some mistakes behind him. That will make his job a bit more difficult.
What's more, Lee has a .212 BABIP. Ted Lilly led MLB pitchers with more than 200.0 inning pitched in BABIP last season (.270). If Lee had a .270 BABIP to date, he would have allowed six more hits. That would bring his WHIP from 0.60 to 0.74.
OK, so a tad of Lee's 2008 success may be due to luck. But he'd still probably be an ace so far even if he didn't have a perfect defense behind him.
2) He's faced weak offenses
Lee faced the A's in his first two starts, then the Twins, Royals, Mariners, and Yankees.
Oakland's hot start can largely be attributed to excellent pitching and hitters drawing walks. The A's rank 24th in baseball in total bases, 28th in slugging, and 3rd in walks. They're hitting .251/.336/.358 overall. When pitchers throw strikes to the A's -- command is one of Lee's biggest strengths -- they have a below-average offense.
The Twins are hitting .264/.310/.370. They rank 24th in baseball in runs -- similar to the A's but without the walks. That makes them a below-average offensive club. Kansas City is hitting .256/.311/.359 and it's 28th in runs -- the lowest-scoring offense in the American League. Seattle's .244/.304/.369. They're 25nd in baseball in runs -- the third-lowest-scoring offense in the AL.
Yeah, well he dominated the Yankees and they have a solid offense, right? Maybe when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are in the lineup. Cliff Lee didn't face that lineup earlier this week, though. He got to match up against Morgan Ensberg (.236 wOBA) and Jose Molina (.235) instead. And the Yankees only rank 15th in baseball in runs this season, making them an average offensive team overall.
If strength of pitching schedule was tracked, Lee's would have to be among the easiest in baseball.
He's scheduled to get another struggling offense in Toronto (26th in runs) next time out. But after that he'll likely be facing the Reds in Cincinnati, Texas at home, the White Sox at home, Texas in Texas, and Detroit on the road. Those offenses should provide a much bigger challenge than what he's seen to date.
3) History says Lee isn't this good
Lee has made 15 or more starts every year since 2004. Granted he dealt with injuries and spent time in the minors last season (97.1 MLB IP), but when he took the mound he was a No. 4-5 starter by FIP (5.55). His 4.78 FIP fits in the No. 3 starter grouping for 2006. His 4.00 from 2005 equates to No. 2 starter. And his 5.12 (appx.) made him a No. 4 in 2004.
Conclusions
Lee has a 1.68 FIP this season. The average AL No. 1 starter had a 3.47 last season -- 3.60 from 2003-2007.
Still just 29 years old, Lee may be young enough to improve upon his 2005 success -- he finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting that season. He was an elite prospect, this could be the healthiest he's been in years, and he must be pitching with confidence right now. But tougher competition and less-than-perfect defense should both be on the horizon. It's also important to remember that he's only 16.7% of the way to 30 starts this season.
I think it's likely that Lee will finish the year with a FIP above 3.50. And I'd wager on it being above 4.00. That said, what he's doing this season is pretty remarkable. The more I've researched, the more confidence I've gained in him continuing to be an above-average starter this season. I just don't think he'll continue to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Adam Foster drafted Cliff Lee for $1 in his dynasty league five years ago. He traded him along with Michael Young and Brian Giles for Vladimir Guerrero prior to the 2005 season. He'd like to hear from people who have actually gotten to enjoy Lee's peak years. You can reach him at adamf@projectprospect.com.