Last week was one of the bigger weeks of the College Baseball season as Conference Tournaments were held and the field of 64 was announced. Scouts, Cross Checkers, Scouting Directors, General Managers and fans got – in some cases – their last chance to see players before the June 5th – 6th draft. Across MLB, draft boards are almost set, and we here at Project Prospect have been holding are own Shadow Draft with well over a dozen members of the community. Ranking players for the draft is an arduous task that relies much on incomplete information. The best people can do is make educated guesses as to future performance.
One quick side note before we get to the college players, there has been a lot of talk lately about “this guy isn’t worth pick X because he only has Y% (very small) chance of reaching his potential.” I’m never one to just accept things without some evidence, so I went to work with my trusty TI-83.
**If looking at numbers gives you tired head feel free to skip down**
Using Marginal value Over Replacement Player (MORP) to establish a free market dollar value for players based on performance I decided to see how much a player should be worth in the MLB draft. Let’s use the case of a high ceiling, raw talent such as Anthony Hewitt – who actually spurred this discussion. How often would he have to turn into a good player to be worth a first round pick?
If Hewitt has just a 2% chance of turning into a solid yet unspectacular player with a 4.5 WARP1 which would be roughly equivalent to hitting .270/.330/.460 with solid defense. In today’s baseball market the fair value for a player of that caliber is 11.85 million dollars, according to MORP. Over the six years that player would be under club control, if he averaged that production he would be worth just over 71 million dollars. If he’s worth 2% of that, then the number is about 1.42 million which was almost identical to the estimated slot for the No. 17 overall pick last year – which was Blake Beavan.
But we’re talking about players into the future, and that didn’t take any sort of inflation into account. If we add in a very small standard inflation rate of 8% -- which underestimates the craziness of actual free agent inflation – then a 4.5 WARP1 player would be worth 102.23 million over six years. So even if Anthony Hewitt never plays at all in the big leagues 98 times out of 100 he would be worth 2.05 million if he’s just pretty good the remaining 2% of the time. 2.05 million happens to correspond well with the estimated slot for the No. 7 overall pick last year – which was Matt LaPorta.
The numbers also tell us that with just a 2% success rate a player would have to average about a 3.75 WARP over 6 seasons to be worth 1 million dollars – or the amount reccomened as slot for a bottom of the first round pick.
So there we have it even without taking any other possibilities into account - such as Hewitt being a super stud or just a bench player – Anthony Hewitt, monetarily, would be worth the 7th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The real reason not to take Hewitt that high would be opportunity cost. There certainly are other players who have a higher likelihood of success, making them better selections. But the money given to first round picks still lags significantly behind the money given to veterans – most of which is for past performance not future.
Now, on to the players.
Hot List
Louisiana State Tigers
Normally this space is reserved for individual players on hot streaks, but what LSU has done over the past month really deserves mention. After going winless at home during a three game series versus Georgia on April 18th through 20th, the LSU Tigers have not lost a game. The Bayou Bengals won 20 straight games, including the SEC tournament. Any team doing this is impressive but to do it in the best baseball conference in the country is truly remarkable. LSU will now host a Regional and is certainly a team that no one would want to face should they make it to Omaha.
Michael Guerrero CF Ole Miss Jr
The JuCo transfer has battled a stress fracture in his foot for most of the year but I think he’s healthy now. Guerrero hit five home runs in as many games in the SEC tournament, including a walk off winner versus Kentucky and possible first rounder Scott Green. Guerrero is a good athlete who showed solid range in center and could stay there as a pro. At the plate he shows very quick wrists and extends his arms well giving him more power than you’d think just by looking at this 5-foot-11, 187-pound frame. While his overall numbers are still less than stellar after his injury plagued start to the season, Guerrero certainly made himself a good deal of money this week as the SEC tournament was packed with MLB brass.
Lance Lynn SP Ole Miss Jr
Lynn continued his streak of having never lost in SEC tournament play when he dominated against Georgia. Lynn worked 6.2 innings striking out 12 and allowing just one run while holding possible Golden Spikes winner Gordon Beckham hitless. Lynn’s 103 strikeouts place him just outside the top 10 nationally but still second on his own team to the amazing Scott Bittle. I’ve thought of Lynn has one of the top five college starter virtually all year – the injury to Tanner Scheppers helps his case some. Lynn figures to go in the back half of the first round in the draft, but don’t be surprised if he ends up with a better career than a few of the hurlers chosen ahead of him.
Yonder Alonso 1B Miami Jr
One of my personal favorite prospects in this draft, Alonso and his Hurricane teammates faced arguably the most difficult schedule in the college over the past couple of weeks. Before winning the ACC tournament, the Canes faced the North Carolina Tar Heels in a weekend matchup that offered perhaps the best set of talent on a college diamond this season. Alonso homered in each of the three games, finishing the series off with a 4-for-5 effort in a classic rubber game that ultimately went UNC’s way. Alonso has five homers over his last seven games, and nine walks in the same span – which is fairly indicative of Alonso’s skill set. Alonso leads the No. 1 team in the country in virtually every offensive category and boasts a robust .380/.542/.799 line for the season and while he’s not a premier athlete he is still 8-for-14 in attempted steals. Alonso is about as sure a bet as you can get to be a productive hitter at the major league level and shouldn’t last past the 12 pick and the Oakland A’s.
Cold Streak
Eric Thames CF Pepperdine Jr
Thames is the latest high profile college player to be injured. Thames tore his quad beating out a ground ball last Friday, and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks. The injury is now just about the second thing that somebody couldn’t like about Thames – the first being his lack of productivity prior to this season. I’ve thought of Grant Desme being a comparable for Thames and now it seems to fit even more, as Desme suffered an injury late in his junior season. Both are athletic centerfielders from West Coast schools, both played in extreme pitchers parks but posted phenomenal numbers despite it and both really turned it on their junior seasons. Desme went in the second round (74th) to Oakland and I wouldn’t be surprised if Thames lasts that long in this draft.
Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@dentonoutlaws.com.