We’re over a month past the 2008 MLB draft and half of the 30 first round picks have yet to sign professional contracts, including eight of the first 11 picks.
Last year Major League Baseball announced a change in the negotiation timetable for Rule IV draft picks. Instead of the previous deadline of 51 weeks, teams now have until 11:59 (EST) on the Ides of August.
In the first year under this new system, seven of the first 30 picks waited until the August 15th deadline before all the t’s and x’s were crossed and the i’s and lower case j’s were dotted. David Price (No. 1 overall, Tampa) Mike Moustakas (No. 2, Kansas City) Josh Vitters (No. 3, Chicago Cubs) Matt Wieters (No. 5, Baltimore) Jarrod Parker (No. 9, Arizona) Matt Dominguez (No. 12, Florida) and Andrew Brackman (No. 30, New York Yankees) each took contract talks down to the wire and each ended up signing for over the recommended slot bonus. The seven players’ deals combined were worth $9.845 million more than slot.
Of the guys who got their deals done quickly, only four of the first rounders signed contracts for more than 10% over slot. And one of those, Rick Porcello (No. 27, Detroit) who went for more than $2 million over slot was a unanimous top-tier prospect who fell in the draft because teams didn’t want to pay him his asking price – an $8 million asking price was floated around, but he signed for a bonus of just $3.58 million.
2008's number one overall pick, Tim Beckham (SS, Tampa Bay – if you don’t know that you’re probably new to the site so let me say, “Hello and welcome to Project Prospect.”), has already began playing for the Rays’ Rookie League affiliate after putting his John Hancock on a deal that pays him $6.15 million – a record for any draft pick. But other than Beckham – No. 8 pick Gordon Beckham has yet to sign – none of the other signees have gone significantly over the recommended slot price.
The reason we’re seeing more stalled negotiations this year compared to last, is painfully obvious (Hint: the answer is in the second paragraph). Because of the inherent volatility in projecting future amateur performance, the hefty injury rate for young athletes, and the overall desultoriness 17-year-olds; draft picks this year are MUCH more valuable than draft picks next year. Clubs know this, agents know this, and players know this. So when it comes down to crunch time, deals tend to get done and tend to favor the player (in terms of getting more cash upfront than the Commissioner's office recommends.)
Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer, 2008's 2nd and 3rd picks to Pittsburg and Kansas City respectively, were considered difficult signs prior to the draft yet neither slid in the draft, and Buster Posey (No. 5, San Francisco) despite deliberately trying to fall down draft boards with a $12 million price tag was still nabbed early. Teams would still rather pay an extra $500,000 to a young guy who will be under club control and has all of this best baseball ahead of him than perhaps $20 million too much in free agency for just a few years of a player’s decline phase.
The days of teams being afraid to pay big bonus or even try to negotiate seem to be over – the addition of a compensatory pick of equivalent value gives teams a nice fall back option should a deal not be reached.
It looks like all 30 picks will end up signing, but also that some owners will end up cutting slightly larger checks than they wish.