Top 50 Prospect Rankings

July 26, 2008

From Clayton Kershaw to Jeremy Jeffress, Project Prospect is proud to bring you our in-season Top 50 update. The Top 25 features the usual suspects, but the back end of the list brings some fresh faces into the equation. Lars Anderson versus Beau Mills and Logan Morrison, you say? How about weighing Michel Inoa against Angel Villalona? We're bringing the answers to those questions and a whole lot more below.

Thanks for checking back for our second year of in-season prospect rankings.
No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl   Pre.
1   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   AA K rate has declined each month: April 30.1%, May 22.2%, July 18.2% -- 24.5% overall   20.3   LAD   MLB   2 ↑
2   Matt Wieters   C   Used to be too good for High-A (.418 wOBA); now he's too good for AA (.415, 13.4% BB)   22.1   BAL   AA   3 ↑
3   David Price   LHP   Has been solid, but not dominant in Double-A: 7.9% BB, 20.4% K, 4.14 FIP; 1.69 FIP in A+   22.8   TB   AA   5 ↑
4   Matt LaPorta   LF   Lots of power, decent contact skils; 17.1% K, .288 IsoP, .406 wOBA w/ Huntsville (369 PA)   23.5   CLE   AA   4 ↔
5   Colby Rasmus   CF   Missed Futures Game and most of July with groin strain; .427 wOBA in June (120 PA)   21.9   STL   AAA   6 ↑
6   Rick Porcello   RHP   Having his worst month to date as a pro: 10.3% BB, 10.3% K; 64% GB, 4.02 FIP overall   19.5   DET   A+   10 ↑
7   Cameron Maybin   CF   .335 wOBA in April, .346 in May, .409 in June -- and 33.6% K, 29.4, 19.3 respectively   21.2   FLA   MLB   8 ↑
8   Andrew McCutchen CF   Woeful June (.291 wOBA); hitting 2 HR since May 24 hasn't helped stock; 7 HR in April-May   21.7   PIT   AAA   7 ↓
9   Jason Heyward   RF   After .410 wOBA in May, "cooled down" to .365 in June; 15.3% K, .367 wOBA overall   18.9   ATL   A   16 ↑
10   Mike Moustakas   SS   Far from dominant, but not overmatched: .307 wOBA, 7.9% BB, 14.9% K, .269 BABIP, 15% LD 19.8   KC   A   15 ↑
11   Trevor Cahill   RHP   Not dominating AA (4.02 FIP) like he did A+ (3.23); already thrown more innings than '07   20.3   OAK   AA   12 ↑
12   Travis Snider   LF   Lack of contact (28.3% K) becoming major concern; .194 IsoP in AA (.212 in A+ last year)   20.4   TOR   AA   9 ↓
13   Brett Anderson   LHP   Excellent ground-ball pitcher (62% in A+) has low walk rate (6.2%) and lots of Ks (27.0%)   20.4   OAK   AA   53 ↑
14   Madison Bumgarner LHP   Dominant all year: 27.2% K, 4.4% BB, 6.5 K/BB, 2.36 FIP; 63 K vs. 9 BB over last 10 starts   18.9   SF   A   13 ↓
15   Chris Davis   1B   Raked in AA (.406 wOBA), slaughtered AAA (.439), crushing in MLB (.406 through 85 PA)   22.3   TEX   MLB   25 ↑
16   Mat Gamel   3B   After going yard 13 times in April/May, has just 2 HR in June/July; still, .422 overall wOBA   22.9   MIL   AA   18 ↑
17   Chris Tillman   RHP   Among the youngest players in AA, he has a 23.6% K rate and 3.52 FIP; 12.0% BB isn't pretty   20.2   BAL   AA   109 ↑
18   Tim Beckham   SS   Despite professional struggles his upside rivals any prep hitter selected since Justin Upton   18.4   TB   R   NR ↑
19   Dexter Fowler   CF   Getting better each month: .349 wOBA in April to .463 in July; .395 overall after .351 in CAL   22.3   COL   AA   112 ↑
20   Tim Alderson   RHP   Finding success in Cal League: 3.40 FIP, 21.6% K, 7.4% BB; 46 K versus 10 BB in June/July   19.7   SF   A+   88 ↑
21   Chris Volstad   RHP   After shutting down AA hitters (3.09 FIP), he's already finding some success in the bigs   21.8   FLA   MLB   30 ↑
22   Jaime Garcia   LHP   Made 1st MLB start last week: 5.0 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 4 K; had a 4.16 FIP in 68.2 AAA IP   22.0   STL   MLB   17 ↓
23   Neftali Feliz   RHP   Completely skipped A+, doing fine in AA; through 99.0 IP: 31.1% K, 8.6% BB, and just 2 HR   20.2   TEX   AA   NR ↑
24   Fernando Martinez   CF   Cool April and July take away from hot stretches in May and June: .288/.329/.416 overall   19.7   NYM   AA   23 ↓
25   Jeff Clement   C   Mastered minors but will he ever been a good big leaguer? .267 wOBA in bigs in '08 (128 PA)   24.8   SEA   AAA   19 ↓
26   Michael Bowden   RHP   Enjoyed AA more the 2nd time: 25.1% K, 6.0% BB vs. 19.6%, 7.9%; sent to AAA on Mon.   21.8   BOS   AA   67 ↑
27   Jarrod Parker   RHP   Solid all around, but nothing sticks out: 20.9% K, 6.6% BB, 3.69 FIP; best K-rate of yr in July   19.6   ARI   A   21 ↓
28   Jhoulys Chacin   RHP   Dominating CAL since promotion: 26.0% K, 3.3% BB, 2.69 FIP in 32.0 IP; 66% GB in Low-A   20.5   COL   A+   NR ↑
29   Austin Jackson   CF   BB rate way up (11.9% vs. 7.7% in A+); LD rate up 2% while BABIP down .046; .358 wOBA   21.4   NYY   AA   33 ↑
30   Gio Gonzalez   LHP   Having best month of the year: 31.4% K, 8.1% BB; GB rate way down: 41% vs 52% in AA   22.8   OAK   AAA   19 ↓
31   Jeremy Hellickson   RHP   Has walked just 9 batters in 110.0 IP; given up more HR (9) in 33.1 AA IP than in 76.2 A+ IP (7)   21.3   TB   A+   144 ↑
32   Josh Vitters   3B   Having his way with SS ball: .344/.386/.508; promotion to A or A+ should be on the way   18.9   CHC   A   32 ↔
33   Chris Marrero   1B   Hit .250/.325/.453 in 290 PA (A+) before broken right leg and ankle injury required surgery   20.0   WAS   A+   18 ↓
34   Adrian Cardenas   2B   Top 2B prospect dealt to OAK in Blanton deal; .351 wOBA, 9.9% BB, 14.1% K before trade   20.7   OAK   A+   117 ↑
35   Lars Anderson   1B   Was .397 wOBA product of CAL & Lancaster? We'll find out soon; promoted to AA last week   20.8   BOS   AA   48 ↑
36   Beau Mills   1B   Nothing wrong with the numbers (.363 wOBA, .204 IsoP), but getting old for A+; ready for AA 21.9   CLE   A+   43 ↑
37   Brett Cecil   RHP   Doing a good job of picking up K's (26.1%), keeping the ball down (57% GB); strong 2.88 FIP   22.0   TOR   AA   125 ↑
38   Phillipe Aumont   RHP   Hasn't pitched in six+ weeks due to elbow injury; 23.2% K, 7.0% BB, 3.30 FIP in 44.2 A IP   19.5   SEA   A   78 ↑
39   Jesus Montero   C   Producing (.309/.359/.449) without too many K's (14.4%); power will improve (.140 IsoP)   18.5   NYY   A   70 ↑
40   Brandon Wood   3B   He's .316/.419/.620 with 15.1% BB in Trip-A this month; when will he do that in the bigs?   23.3   LAA   MLB   23 ↓
41   Wladimir Balentien   RF   Wasn't feeling it in the bigs (.271 wOBA), but white hot since return to AAA (.443 in July)   24.0   SEA   MLB   79 ↑
42   Hank Conger   DH   Stud an amateur resume + young for High-A + promising power (.243 IsoP) = stellar prospect   20.4   LAA   A+   65 ↑
43   Logan Morrison   1B   Raking in pitcher's paradise FSL: .400+ wOBA in June, July; like Mills, should see AA soon   20.9   FLA   AA   NR ↑
44   Bryan Anderson   C   Having his best year as a pro: .381 wOBA between AA, AAA; walking more, less strikeouts   21.6   STL   AAA   124 ↑
45   Max Scherzer   RHP   Demotion to Trip-A, shoulder injury not helping his stock; just 2.1 IP in July; 3.59 FIP with ARI   23.9   ARI   MLB   14 ↓
46   Angel Villalona   1B   Potential is there, but contact woes (24.4% K) are a concern; just .310 wOBA, 4.7% BB   17.9   SF   A   29 ↓
47   Kyle Skipworth   C   08's No. 6 overall pick combines plus power with a plus arm; has ability to hit LDs to all fields   18.4   FLA   R   NR ↑
48   Michael Inoa   RHP   Kid signed for $4.25 million, the largest bonus in history for non-Cuban from Latin America   16.8   OAK   n/a   NR ↑
49   Nick Weglarz   LF   After worst month of '08 in June (.317 wOBA), having his best in July (.432); 16.5% BB   20.5   CLE   A+   22 ↓
50   Jeremy Jeffress   RHP   Don't let the 5.16 ERA fool you -- he's dominating A+: 31.2% K, 3.26 FIP; 11.2% BB a bit high   20.8   MIL   A+   89 ↑
Honorables: Will Inman (SD), Elvis Andrus (TEX), Michael Saunders (SEA), Michael Burgess (WAS), Gorkys Hernandez (ATL), James Simmons (OAK),
Aaron Hicks (MIN), Brett Wallace (STL), Freddie Freeman (ATL), Max Ramirez (TEX), David Cooper (TOR) and Jordan Walden (LAA).        
Graduated (final ranking): Jay Bruce (1), Andy LaRoche (11), Justin Masterson (20), and Carlos Gonzalez (24).                
Dropped out of Top 25 (previous ranking): Max Scherzer (14) and Nick Weglarz (22).                
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                
** Ages are as of July 26th, 2008                
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
**** Pre. is our ranking of the prospect either from our last Top 25 list or our 2008 Top 150                
                             
<<< Our June 9th Top 25                    
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Adam Loberstein can be reached at aloberstein@projectprospect.com. Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.