Scouting college players for next year’s draft really starts in Cape Cod, MA. Some players come into the elite-level wooden bat league with substantial buzz (see: Ackley, Dustin and Green, Grant) while others use summer months to showcase themselves (see: most everyone else). Last year we saw guys like Aaron Crow and Dennis Raben combine dominate Cape performances with great college seasons and, in turn, become high draft picks. This year figures to be no different as several players have turned in stellar performances through the first half of the Cape season.
Dustin Ackley OF Harwich Mariners
Ackley is one of the most decorated underclassmen in recent college baseball history. The University of North Carolina first baseman was National Freshman of the Year two years ago and an All-American this past year, after amassing a 1.000+ OPS for the second consecutive season. After turning down a shot at being the first baseman for Team USA, Ackley headed to Harwich to get reps in as an outfielder – a position he’ll more than likely play next year and in the pros. The position change hasn’t affected Ackley at the plate where he’s hitting .415/.586/.707 (in just 12 games) in a league known to drastically favor pitchers. Power is the one question mark scouts have about his game, but a .292 IsoP and 41.1% XBH% in the Cape will erase all doubts if he’s able to keep up those numbers.
Grant Green SS Chatham Athletics
Those who don’t back Ackley as the best position player prospect for next year’s draft must surely champion the case of Grant Green. The shortstop for the USC Trojans, Green is loaded with tools and has been very productive – a good combination. Green is currently top five in virtually every offensive category in the Cape with an overall robust line of .380/.476/.591. His range defensively draws comparisons to another California college shortstop, Troy Tulowitzski, but his offensive upside may be even higher than Tulowitzki’s – at least the non-Coors field version.
Robert Stock C Cotuit Kettleers
Stock left high school early to attend college in L.A. and play baseball for USC. And while his overall numbers have be slightly less than advertised for a much ballyhooed recruit, his age is a mitigating factor. Stock’s line of .231/.327/.319 is respectable in the Cape but hasn’t turned heads the way Ackley and Green have. I’ve been tinkering with an offensive ranking system for college players and Stock has come out better than I would have anticipated due mostly to his terrific contact rate – a stat shown to have a strong correlation between amateur and pro success. Additionally, he's helped by the fact that USC played one of the most difficult schedules in the country last year and play half their games in a strong pitchers park. There’s a lot to like about Stock as a prospect, zone judgement, contact ability, defense but he needs to show he can hit for some power before he get mentioned with elite prospects for next year’s draft. Good news, he has plenty of time and talent on his side.
A.J. Pollock CF Falmouth Commodores
Pollock, rather quietly, had a really good season for Notre Dame last year and is following it up with a mammoth Cape season. His vital line of .389/.467/.565 ranks him first, second, and tied for first in each of the triple slash categories. Pollock may not have a really great tool other than his speed. He attempted 31 steals last year despite only being on first 78 times, and did so with a success rate of over 90%. Pollock also lacks a minus tool, as he is really good to slightly above average in virtually everything. If he can build on his success, and maybe show a little more power, he could be a first rounder by the time June of 2009 rolls around.
Brad Boxberger RHP Chatham Athletics
This is unintentional, but Boxberger also plays for USC. The right hander, who could be USC’s Friday night starter next season, has been closing for Chatham. He has registered 8 saves in 15 games - saves aren’t important in and of themselves but they do tell us that his coach likes him to have the ball at the end of the game. Boxberger has struck out 36% of the batters he’s faced and walked 9.8%. He's yet to allow a home run, and has only given up 9 hits in 14.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and his curve flashes potential to be an out pitch with late 12/6 break.
Marc Krauss 3B/OF Bourne Braves
Krauss hasn’t received the publicity of some of this Cape peers, but he deserves it. After hitting .332/.448/.568 for the University of Ohio with 48 walks and more extra base hits (32) than strike outs (31), the six-foot-three, 220 pound former high school football star (three time All-State in Ohio) is hitting .388/.509/.565. That line places him second, first, and third in the Cape's triple slash categories.
I’ll be back with more updates from the Cape, and more info on pitchers as the star hurlers start to amass somewhat of a decent statistical sample size.
Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@mail.com.