With our Midseason Top 50 and baseball's non-waiver trade deadline in the books, let's take it to the mailbag for an inside look at a revamped Pittsburgh Pirates chain. By dealing three players away from their big league squad, the Pirates have brought eight youngsters into the fold.
Featured Question: Ryan Russell in Washington, Pa. asks:
Hey Adam,
Just wanted to get your take on the Pirates' trades. Could you give me ceiling projections for Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Tabata? How about the guys they got for Jason Bay (Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen from Boston; Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers)? Also, how does this make the Pirates Top 5 look?
Thanks,
Ryan
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Hey Ryan,
Let's start with the Pirates' deal that shipped Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte off to sea -- only fair, seeing as it came first. I like this deal a lot -- if I'm a Yankees fan.
The main issue with this move was the decision to package Nady and Marte in the same trade. Nady was supposed to be one of the biggest names dealt at the deadline -- and he was untill Mark Teixeira made the best team in baseball that much better, and Manny started being Manny at Chavez Ravine. Like Nady, Marte was about as good as it got given his particular role, so why package the lefty specialist and the coveted outfielder together?
The deal brought Pittsburgh one high-risk, high-reward prospect in Jose Tabata, and three arms who'll basically just fill out a pitching staff -- I'm not expecting a ton from Ohlendorf, Karstens, or McCutchen. Had Nady and Marte been dealt separately, you'd have to think they'd pick up at least one Tabata-esque prospect for each of them. That isn't saying a whole lot, though, seeing as Tabata's value has plummeted -- he was nowhere to be seen in our Top 50.
In short, I'm surprised the Pirates didn't get more for Nady and Marte, and think their respective values would have been higher if they were each sold separately. That said, picking up Tabata could prove to be a decent move -- a move to be described as a gamble until time tells us what happens with Tabata's future, writes MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.
But Pittsburgh redeemed itself and them some with its trade of Jason Bay.
Brandon Moss, 24, is a big league quality starting outfielder, and Craig Hansen's stuff out of the pen is very, very good -- although the fact that you have no idea where the ball is going to end up when he releases it is more than a wee problem.
Bryan Morris is a very interesting name. After missing all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery, Morris, 21, has been doing well in Low-A in '08 -- although he's at a lower level than most prospects his age. But he throws hard, has a plus curve, and is a solid addition to the Pirates' chain.
The prize of the deal, however, is easily Andy LaRoche. The 24-year-old recently graduated from our Top 25 at No. 11. He has a world of potential, but couldn't find regular playing time in a crowded Dodgers lineup. No prospect was more in need of a change of scenary than LaRoche. He got that change, will see regular at-bats in the heart of the Pirates lineup, and is a guy who I think will do quite well with his full-time role.
In order to appreciate the Bay deal, I'm including LaRoche in my new Pirates Top 5. Yes, he's 16 at-bats over the allowed 140 number, and no, I couldn't care less -- he's the best prospect/youngster/guy who isn't old with a solid future ahead of him in the Pirates chain, so deal with it.
Without further adieu, your updated Pittsburgh Pirates Top 5:
1. Andy LaRoche, 3B (9/13/83): A .400+ Triple-A wOBA doesn't happen by accident -- especially when your sample size is 708 plate appearances over three seasons. Had a crazy 37:14 BB:K rate with Las Vegas in '08.
2. Andrew McCutchen, CF (10/10/86): Let's see -- Nady's with the Bronx Bombers, and Bay is becoming one with the Green Monster in Boston. In short, McCutchen will make his big league debut this season.
3. Jose Tabata, RF (8/12/88): Yes, he has issues. No, he isn't having much success. But hey, he's a 19-year-old in Double-A. The talent is there, so the question is simply when -- or will -- he start producing?
4. Bryan Morris, RHP (3/28/87): Doesn't get a ton of strikeouts (21.1%), but doesn't walk a ton (9.5%), either. He's also doing a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground. I doubt he's in Low-A much longer.
5. Brandon Moss, RF (9/16/83): He won't be an all-star, but he'll be a big league starter for a good while. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has gone .283/.345/.443 through 121 major league plate appearances.
Honorables: Fine, for those of you who don't consider LaRoche a prospect, try Neil Walker (3B, 9/10/85), Steve Pearce (1B, 4/13/83), and Jamie Romak (LF, 9/30/85).
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Bonus Question: Rich Cawker in Maple Ridge, B.C. asks:
Hi Adam,
Out of all the prospect rankings I've looked at, nobody seems to rate Sean Rodriguez highly. Why is that? He seems to have played well at every level, he's not too old for his level, and has a 1.000 OPS at a scarce position. What gives?
Rich
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Hey Rich,
I was driving the Sean Rodriguez bandwagon as we were working on our Top 100 two seasons ago. Since that point, I've either A) crashed the wagon, or B) traded it in due to there being too many Rodriguezes in the minors -- try 125 of them, according to MiLB.com.
Rodriguezed out or not, there's a few things keeping this Rodriguez out of the Top 50 range. I wouldn't say he's played well at every level -- in fact, inconsistency is one of his major drawbacks. He was solid in Low-A in '05, very good between High-A and Double-A in '06, pretty average in Double-A in '07, and is back to being impressive in '08 in Triple-A. That's a pretty rough rollercoaster ride.
Also, while he's currently at shortstop, his defense there might not play in the majors. He's seen time -- limited time -- at second, third, and in the outfield as a minor leaguer, and has played 21 of his 22 big league games at second base.
That said, the man has a .434 wOBA and 1.037 SLG as a 23-year-old in Triple-A. I'm not driving the wagon anymore, but I'm still in there somewhere amongst the other Rodriguezes. Sean Rodriguez is currently a Top 100 prospect in the No. 75-100 range in my books.
Thanks for the emails,
Adam
To submit a question for future mailbag use, email Adam Loberstein at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.