As September approaches and dynasty leagues go through their final waves of adds and drops, it's tough to find gem prospects. With most of this year's sleepers and breakouts long gone, we have to look deeper and harder to find someone of value. So far this season, I've talked about names such as Jhoulys Chacin (4/14), Logan Morrison (4/14), Michael Stanton (4/14), Freddie Freeman (5/17), Daryl Jones (6/12), and Marcus Lemon (6/12). Few of those players were owned in many dynasty leagues at the time, but have since significantly vaulted their trade value. Hopefully, I can help with more of the same in this edition of Deep Dynasty Fishing.
Brandon Allen, 1B – 2/12/1986, Double-A, Chicago White Sox: Taken in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, Allen is a big first-baseman with legitimate power potential. Standing 6-foot-2 and weighing in at a strong 235 pounds, Allen is using 2008 as a breakout season. His first year of full-season ball came at Low-A Kannapolis in 2006. It was a disaster, and his .272 wOBA is proof of that. He had major plate discipline issues, posting a 5.1 BB% and a 29.5 K%. Repeating the level the following year, Allen improved significantly, posting a respectable .346 wOBA. He also increased his walk rate by 2.3% while decreasing his strikeout rate by 7.5%. Allen showed great improvement across the board, but that is expected for a player repeating a level; 2008 was going to be the true test for Allen. After posting a .380 wOBA in hitter-friendly Winston-Salem (High-A), Allen has a .397 wOBA in Double-A (102 PA). His 15.5 BB% and 20.6 K% at Double-A mark considerable improvement from his terrible year in 2006. His current progression bodes well when looking toward his future as a power-hitting first baseman from the left side.
Brian Bogusevic, OF - 2/12/1984, Double-A, Houston Astros: A first
round pick in the 2005 draft (24th overall), Bogusevic had his choice between hitting and pitching. He went with pitching. Wrong choice? From 2005 to
2007, Bogusevic hardly dominanted low-minors hitters. Through 88.1 innings this year at Double-A Corpus
Christi, Bogusevic posted a poor 5.92 FIP and an even worse 8.9 K%. Things weren't exactly looking good for him as a
pitcher. That was until his
coaching staff decided to move him back to where he excelled as a star at
Tulane. Reverting back to hitting has started out rough for Bogusevic. He has, however, shown some power -- 12 of his 28 hits have gone for extra-bases. Houston decided to move him back to Double-A, this time as a hitter, and he has taken off
since. In 62 Texas League at-bats,
Bogusevic has put up a very impressive vital of .371/.443/.645. Bogusevic is finally living up to the potential that made him a first round pick, albeit at a completely
different route.
Mark Diapoules, SP – 5/31/1988, High-A, St. Louis Cardinals: The
Cardinals have had success swooping up late-round talents like Albert
Pujols (13th round in 1999) and Jaime Garcia (22nd round in 2005). The
next year, the Cards took Mark Diapoules in the 21st round, and they
may have found another hidden gem.
Diapoules wasn’t great in rookie ball last year, posting a 5.06 FIP, but
his peripherals (10.3 BB%, 20.6 K%, 61 GB%) were relatively promising. Starting in Low-A Quad Cities
this season, Diapoules was clearly too much for Midwest League batters. His 3.37 FIP was strong, and he had the rates
to back it up (8.9 BB%, 22.1 K%, 61 GB%). Diapoules' move to the Florida State League hasn’t been flawless, but he still has had
success (10.9%, 17.9%, 57% GB). Being pretty young for the level, he’s posted a 4.04 FIP. Keep an eye on Diapoules as the year winds
down, as he's a solid sleeper who could move rapidly.
Jairo Heredia, SP - 10/8/1989, Low-A, New York Yankees: The Yankees
signed Heredia as a 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. Heredia made some noise when he put up
a sparkling 26.9 K% in 49.0 GCL innings last year. This year, as one of the
youngest pitchers in full-season ball, Heredia has been very strong. Through 92.1 innings, he has struck out
21.1% of the batters he's faced while walking 9.8% en route to an impressive 56%
to groundout rate. His 79.3 Dominance Factor
shows how solid he has been -- he’s also
only allowed seven home runs this season. While he has yet to pitch above Low-A, Heredia, 18, has breakout potential.
Derek Holland, SP - 10/9/1986, High-A, Texas Rangers: Derek Holland
was a 25th round pick in 2006, then a draft-and-follow signing in
2007 -- the last year of the draft-and-follow.
Debuting in short-season Spokane last year, Holland
posted a 29.2 K% and showed good control (7.4 BB%). The hard-throwing lefthander started this
season in the Midwest League, where he was dominant from the get
go (24.2 K%, 51 GB%, and 2.63 FIP). But his promotion to the California League (High-A Bakersfield) would be a much bigger test. Surprisingly, Holland, has pitched better in the Cal League than he had in the Midwest League. Through 31.0 innings, he has posted a 4.4 BB% and 32.5 K%
to go along with a 2.43 FIP. The way
that Holland has handled the jump to the California League speaks well for what
he can do in the future.
Jefrey Marte, OF - 6/21/1991, Rookie, New York Mets: Overshadowed by
organization-mate Wilmer Flores, Marte is another exciting teenage infielder the
Mets are developing. Although he
isn’t playing in the Appalachian League like Flores, what Marte is
doing at such a young age in the GCL should not be overlooked. With a wOBA over .380, he's starting to build up his reputation. Marte has
shown good power (.197 IsoP) while striking out in just 16.8% of his at-bats -- impressive for someone his age. Now 143 plate appearances into his pro career, Marte has shown just about
everything you can ask for out of a 17-year-old third baseman, and he seems like a strong bet to succeed
going forward.
Francisco Samuel, RP - 12/20/1986, High-A, St. Louis Cardinals: Another
Dominican Republic product, Francisco Samuel has been striking people out in
bunches since signing with the Cardinals.
The problem is he's also been walking people in bunches. Samuel pitched 34.0 innings in the GCL last
year, and although he struck out 22.1% and had a 55% ground-ball rate, he also had a very, very high 19.3 BB%. Standing a stick-like 6-foot-1, 150-pounds,
Samuel came into this season with many more questions than answers. While his walk rate is still ugly (17.4%), Samuel is
beginning to answer some of those questions. Pitching in relief between A and A+, he has struck out 33.2% of batters faced while getting
grounders at a 54% rate. He’s also only
allowed two home runs in 56.1 innings. Samuel still has a
long way to go, but he's young enough to find a way to limit his walk totals and succeed.
Mark Trumbo, 1B, 1/16/1986, High-A, Los Angeles Angels: Trumbo was selected in the 18th round of the 2004 draft but signability due to a college committment played a role in when he was selected. This, however,
didn’t stop the Angels from selected Trumbo and giving him enough of a signing bonus to get him to turn pro. Trumbo made his full-season debut in
2006 and failed to impress -- he had
a .285 wOBA in 428 at-bats against Midwest League pitchers. As a repeat performer in the league the
following season, Trumbo improved, but
not by a significant amount (.325 wOBA). Opening 2008 in the California League, Trumbo begun to make strides, belting 26
homers in 442 at-bats and lowering his strikeout rate to 15.2% -- it was 19.0% last season -- though he still hasn't walked much (5.4% this season). Now in Double-A, Trumbo has a .413 wOBA, including a .339 IsoP (59 PA), but his strike-out rate is back up (27.1%). It may not be a bad idea to take a flier
on Trumbo, who has the potential to turn into a good power hitter in the big leagues.
Brett Sullivan can be reached at bsullivan@projectprospect.com.