| An early look at the 2009 college draft class | ||||||
| No. | Player | Pos | Notes | YR | TM | CON |
| 1 | Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Clear #1, 37.4 K% 4.53 BB%, FB touches 100mph, SL maybe be best pitch | Jr. | SDSU | MWC |
| 2 | Alex White | RHP | Mid 90's FB with sink and plus SL, developing CH, 27.6 K% 10.2 BB% | Jr. | UNC | ACC |
| 3 | Duskin Ackley | CF | .417/.503/.597, .478 wOBA*, 15.7 BB% 8 K%, + speed, young Tony Gwynn? | Jr. | UNC | ACC |
| 4 | Kyle Gibson | RHP | Plus FB, SL, & command, clean mechanics, projectable, 96/23 K/BB | Jr. | MIZZ | Big 12 |
| 5 | Grant Green | SS | True SS with power (.254 IsoP), .478 wOBA*, good athlete, 35/15 K/BB | Jr. | USC | Pac 10 |
| 6 | Josh Phegley | C | Crazy productive, .522 wOBA*, .308 IsoP, 12.4 BB% 8 K%, should stay at C | Jr. | IU | Big 10 |
| 7 | Andrew Oliver | LHP | Plus command of mid 90's FB, develping breaking ball, 25.1 K% 9.4 BB% | Jr. | OKST | Big 12 |
| 8 | Kentrail Davis | CF | Short but strong & athletic, .477 wOBA*, .253 IsoP, 9.76 BB%, poor 22.76 K% | So. | TEN | SEC |
| 9 | Kendall Volz | RHP | FB 92-94 w/ +sink, plus SL, 27.8 K% 9.2 BB%, good athlete with upside | Jr. | BAY | Big 12 |
| 10 | Jason Stoffel | RHP | Potential closer, 14.8 K/9 (2nd in NCAA), 5.26 K:BB | Jr. | ARIZ | Pac 10 |
| 11 | Tanner Scheppers | RHP | If healthy, a top 10 talent, mid 90's FB w/ + SL, ranking here is a hedge | Sr. | FSU | WAC |
| 12 | Ben Tootle | RHP | Broke out in Cape Cod League, FB hits 98 w/ good SL, closer potential | Jr. | JSU | OVC |
| 13 | Ryan Ortiz | C | If he can stick at C, bat makes him a 1st rounder, .480 wOBA*, 13.06 BB% | Jr. | OSU | Pac 10 |
| 14 | Bran Morgado | LHP | Dominated SEC last year, 31.2 K%, 11.1 BB%, low 90's FB w/ good SL | Jr. | TEN | SEC |
| 15 | AJ Pollack | CF | Lacks standout tool, beside speed, but very solid, great contact (4 K%) | Jr. | ND | Big East |
| 16 | Scott Bittle | RHP | Unsigned 2nd round pick, 130 K, 30 BB in 70.2 IP, relies on ++ cutter | Sr. | MISS | SEC |
| 17 | DJ LeMahieu | SS | Good fielder with just ok range, some untapped power in bat | Jr. | LSU | SEC |
| 18 | Rich Poythress | 1B | 6'4" 235lbs, .252 IsoP, 14.4 BB%, poor man's Brett Wallace | Jr. | UGA | SEC |
| 19 | David Hale | RHP | Ivy Leaguer with good stuff, 23.2 K% and 0 HR allowed | Jr. | PU | Ivy |
| 20 | Chris Dominguez | 3B | .482 wOBA*, great power (.322 IsoP) K rate improved but still worry (16.7%) | Jr. | UL | Big East |
| * Kentrail Davis is a draft-eligible sophomore | ||||||
| <<< Discuss these rankings | ||||||
The World Series is over – congrats Phillies – and people are turning their attention to the offseason as teams prepare to improve their rosters. I’m here to run down the best way to improve an organization, the draft.
I spent a good chunk of my free time over the past couple months working on a method of organizing and ranking college players. I’ve finally got something that I’m comfortable with, and something that I believe has real value. I’ll delve more into the details of my method later, but basically I tried to get as much information as possible while controlling for league and park effects and balancing all that so the best pro prospects come out on top.
I used weighted on-base average (wOBA) as a proxy for overall production, and adjusted for park effects making the new metric: wOBA* which is referenced in the chart above. Of the players I’ve calculated so far, the median wOBA* is .407 with a standard deviation of .053. In other words, anything above .400 is solid, above .460 is really good and Josh Phegley’s .522 is far and away the best – he’s the only player who rates as two standard deviations above median...that’s what you get when you hit .438/.507/.745.
• This draft class’s depth is in its pitching. Three of my top five and 11 of my top 20 are hurlers – that doesn’t even count Aaron Crow or Josh Fields.
• If they were in this list, I might rank Crow just above Alex White since he’s a year older. Fields would rank ahead of Stoffel, since Fields could get out MLB hitters right now.
• I can’t imagine a scenario in which Stephen Strasburg stays healthy and isn’t the No. 1 guy on the board on draft day.
• Grant Green is probably lower here than most rankings, but that’s not because I dislike him. I like Green a lot but, historically, zone judgment is the most important skill for a college hitter to translate successfully into the pros. And that happens to be Green’s weakest point. My system weighs junior year accomplishments more heavily than sophomore, so there’s still plenty of time for Green to improve.
• Kentrail Davis and Green come out as very similar offensive players.
• Robbie Shields set the world on fire for a few weeks in the Cape and made a lot of noise, but check out his numbers at Florida Southern….Florida Southern. I don’t think we’re talking about a Beau Mills type lower level masher here.
• A few other hitters you should keep an eye on; Kyle Seager (2B, UNC), Nick Buss (CF, USC), Blake Dean (LF, LSU), and Marc Krauss (3B, Ohio).
• Other pitchers; Brad Boxberger (USC), Brian Pearl (Washington), Sean Black (Seton Hall), Alex Wilson (Texas A&M), and Mike Leake (Arizona State).
Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@mail.com.