From established minor league stars like Matt Wieters to recent first-round picks like Gordon Beckham and Brett Wallace, many of the Arizona Fall League's hitters are passing "prospect graduate school" with flying colors. Some, however, haven't been as fortunate.
Below are five hitters who've been as hot as the Arizona desert, as well as three who could use a little heating up. This list is focused on some of the league's most prominent players and how they've fared. It is not meant to be an exhaustive report of the league's top performers.
Who's hot:
Logan Morrison, 1B, Mesa Solar Sox (FLA)
Morrison's rampage continues. After netting a .386 wOBA in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, the 6-foot-2, 215-pounder has continued having his way with opposing pitchers in Arizona -- and then some. Morrison owns a .424/.436/.707 vital line through 94 AFL plate appearances -- .484 wOBA. The only blemish on the Kansas City, Mo. native's AFL resume is he only has two walks to his credit. That said, you have to dig pretty deep to find anything wrong with the season Morrison's been having.
Gordon Beckham, SS, Peoria Saguaros (CWS)
There's a certain set of expectations that come with being the No. 8 overall pick, and Beckham has wasted little time in trying to live up to them. With just 63 South Atlantic League plate appearances summing up his minor league experience, there was a possibility that Beckham could have been a bit overwhelmed in an advanced league like the AFL. Well, not quite. The shortstop's 1.157 OPS ranks sixth-best among all fall league hitters -- .468 wOBA. He's batting .394/.468/.652 overall in the AFL (78 PA).
Brett Wallace, 3B, Peoria Saguaros (STL)
When the Cardinals drafted Wallace at No. 13 overall, they knew his bat could carry him through the minor leagues quickly. It did, as the 6-foot-1, 245-pounder went .337/.427/.530 in 234 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A. That hasn't changed back in Arizona. The Arizona State product holds a .397 wOBA through 91 AFL plate appearances. If Wallace keeps hitting at this rate, it's possible he could find his way into the St. Louis lineup by the end of the 2009 campaign.
Brian Bogusevic, CF, Scottsdale Scorpions (HOU)
This whole hitting business is (still) treating Bogusevic just fine. The pitcher-turned-outfielder posted a .371/.447/.556 vital in 144 Texas League plate appearances, and his offensive success didn't stopped there. A native of Palos Heights, Ill., Bogusevic has gone .386/.439/.474 in Arizona (75 PA, .375 wOBA). He's reached base 12 times in his past six games. Bogusevic hasn't shown much more than doubles power, but if he keeps hitting the way he has been, he won't need to.
Matt Wieters, C, Surprise Rafters (BAL)
Wieters is still good. He owned High-A (.426 wOBA), obliterated Double-A (.452 wOBA) and has continued having his way at the plate in the AFL. The Georgia Tech product has been so good that a .281/.403/.422 fall league showing (77 PA, .372 wOBA) isn't even impressive anymore -- it's expected. In case you've been living under a rock since Wieters was drafted No. 5 overall in 2007, he just put up one of the most impressive full-season hitting debuts of any college product in the last decade.
Who's not:
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Scottsdale Scorpions (LAA)
Trumbo landed himself on the radar in posting a .281/.325/.540 vital and 32 homers between High-A and Double-A this season. But like Mills, Trumbo's power hasn't been present in Arizona. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder is slugging .364 with just one home run in 144 AFL plate appearances (.290 wOBA).
Austin Jackson, OF, Peoria Javelinas (NYY)
After going .304/.370/.476 in between Low-A and High-A in '07, Jackson slid to a .285/.354/.419 rate in Double-A earlier this year (581 PA). The skid has continued in Arizona, as Jackson holds a .311 wOBA through 111 fall league plate appearances. A return trip to Trenton to start the '09 season may not hurt Jackson's development.
Beau Mills, 1B, Surprise Rafters (CLE)
Mills has power, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his AFL numbers. The Visalia, Calif. native clubbed out 58 extra-base hits in the Carolina League en route to a .377 wOBA. Arizona has been a different story, as Mills has struggled to a .386 SLG in 72 plate appearances (.313 wOBA) with the Rafters. Still, he'll likely start '09 with Double-A Akron.
Note that the wOBA calculations above do not factor in reached base on error or defensive interference due to that data not being readily available.
Adam Loberstein can be reached at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.