Editor's Note: Josh and Will, two of our message board regulars who are knowledgeable about the depths of the minor leagues, submitted blurbs to me -- a week and a half ago -- on eligible players who they saw as candidates to be selected in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft. I asked them to focus on players who once were recognized as elite prospects.
(For a complete list of players taken in the Rule 5 Draft, visit mlb.com)
Selected in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft
No. 4 Donald Veal, LHP, Pirates
Veal was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2005 draft out of community college. He was the Cubs Minor League Player of the Year in 2006, sharing the honor with Rich Hill. A lot of young pitchers run into control issues early in their careers. They are suddenly facing much tougher hitters than ever before and the "country hardball" approach that got some of them through high school suddenly does not work too well. They are often working on new off-speed pitches or correcting mechanics, but the sentiment is generally that their control and command will improve.
Well, Donald Veal has been wild from the jump and still is today. Even repeating Double-A this year didn't help -- 81 walks in 145.1 IP while repeating the league doesn't show any progress. Throw in his 18 wild pitches and you can see the damage he has done to himself. Veal is not short on velocity, he certainly has that going for him. But it is unusual for a pitcher with such a long track record of control problems to suddenly begin throwing strikes with a lot of regularity. In terms of what scouts like to call "a good arm" -- a phrase that makes me laugh sometimes -- he might be a good gamble, but I would be surprised to see him stick with any team that might think of selecting him.
No. 8 Kyle Bloom, RP, Pirates
Named to the All-Hawaii Winter Baseball team after going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings. He struck out 32, walked 11 and gave up 15 hits for West Oahu. Bloom, 25, was 5-8 with a 4.19 ERA in 28 games, 22 starts, for Altoona in 2008. Pitched far better as a reliever rather then a starter this season. He could stick with a team has a LOOGY.
No. 16 Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Brewers
Morlan was a 3rd Round pick in 2004 (91st overall). A 2008 Futures Game selection and two-time league All Star, Morlan has had a steady climb through the minors since 2004. A native of Havana, Cuba, Morlan has been a starter, a closer, and a middle reliever and is just 22 years old. Long viewed as one of the better relief prospects in the minors, Morlan was a part of the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade a year ago. Morlan's career has been marked by low home run allowed rates, high strikeout rates, and good control. He had an enlarged heart earlier in his career, but I am not aware that this has caused him any trouble at all as a pro.
He is a good candidate to be a high pick in the Rule 5 Draft this year and could be a very inexpensive but valuable addition to a MLB bullpen. Morlan topped out at 91 mph in the Futures Game, but has been clocked as high as 97 in the past. He also features a slider around 79-80 mph. A flyball pitcher, Morlan has not had significant trouble with the longball at this point in his career. He is currently pitching well in the Puerto Rican Winter League. Expect Morlan to change uniforms on Draft day.
Not Selected in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft
Greg Atencio, RP, Royals
A team that selects Atencio is banking that his 2008 season is not a fluke control wise. Up until this season, he had the habit of serving up the long ball when his fastball wasn't working but that wasn't the case this year. His 2008 stat line goes: 79.1 innings 85K/35BB with only four home runs surrendered spread over both Double-A and Triple-A. He currently is struggling in the Domincan Winter League but that shouldn't be enough to scare off teams.
Jordan Brown, 1B, Indians
Brown was drafted in the 4th round in 2005. He was Carolina League Player of the Year in 2006 and Eastern League Player of the Year in 2007. Brown came into 2008 with a head of steam, coming off a rare feat -- winning back to back Player of the Year Awards. However, this past season he recovered from a knee injury early in the season and a foot injury more recently in Winter Ball. He has shown gap power and the ability to hit for average throughout his career. Brown is not a plus defender and lacks speed, which certainly will not help his prospects of being taken in the Rule 5 Draft.
Still, there are worse hitters around Major League Baseball, and a team that can afford to use him mostly in a pinch hitting role his first season could find a useful big league bat. A contributor to the Player Journal features on www.milb.com, perhaps Brown will one day post an entry of his experience leading up to the Rule 5 Draft.
Brad Coon, OF, Angels
One of the few position players that really stands out that is unprotected due to his speed. He recently left his Winter League team in the Dominican Republic after going 13-for-50 (.250) in 17 games due to a lack of playing time. 147 stolen bases over his minor-league career but he doesn't hit enough to play everyday.
Bobby Wilson, C, Angels
Made a spot start this year in early April then returned in September when the rosters expanded. Defensive minded catcher with the ability to drive the ball. Would be ideal for a National League team. He hit .312/.386/.435 in 260 at-bats for Salt Lake this year.
J. B. Cox, RHP, Yankees
Cox was drafted in the 2nd Round in 2005. A closer at the University of Texas, Cox has switched roles as a professional, working in middle relief. He missed all of 2007 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Cox features a fastball/slide/change mix and his slider has been rated as the best in the Yankees system in the past. He relies on a sinking fastball and is more of a pitch-to-contact type than a strikeout pitcher. His walk rate jumped when he reached Triple-A this season, something that Cox claimed was due to a dead arm phase.
Cox will likely be more of a sixth or seventh inning reliever with the Yankees. As we have recently seen on the free agent market, developing reliable relief arms within your own system can save your team a lot of money. If Cox is not selected, I would imagine that he will see time in 2009 working out of the Yankees' pen.
Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Indians
Lofgren has garnered a laundry list of accolades during his professional career. A 4th round pick back in 2004, Lofgren has been a Futures Game selection, Carolina League Pitcher of the Year and two time mid-season All Star. However, his performance during the 2008 regular season and recently completed Arizona Fall League season will not win him any awards. Reports of declining fastball command have lead to an increasing walk rate. His AFL performance has been nothing short of hideous. Lofgren somehow allowed 19 hits and 18 walks in just 7 innings of work. Opponents hit .442 off him. Reportedly, Lofgren has also been dealing with a family issue recently.
What happened here? Steve Blass disease? Lack of focus? Whatever the reason for Lofgren's struggles, I wouldn't be surprised if some team thought they had the answer. Perhaps a pitching coach up for a big challenge would like to stash him in the back of the bullpen for a year in hopes that he could regain his previous form.
Chris Lubanski, OF, Royals
Lubanski was drafted 5th overall out of high school in 2003, and was a member of the Junior National Team in 2002. I recall a trip to Burlington, Iowa in early 2004 that I took in hopes of seeing him and Mitch Maier (among others). The first game I was there, Lubanski was not starting because the opposing team (Quad Cities) had a lefty on the mound. You might imagine that lefty was Glen Perkins. Nope. Instead, the 5th overall pick from the most recent draft had to be protected from -- drum roll please -- Errol Simonitsch. Needless to say I was disappointed.
Lubanski has had contact issues throughout his career. He doesn't have a lot of speed and is not a standout defender. He still has raw power, probably the most useful tool in his bag at this point. Also, he has seemingly been around forever but he is only 23. He was a good candidate for Rule 5 last year, but was obviously passed over. His performance this year did not raise his status at all and I would be shocked to see him selected this year. He certainly has not provided the return the Royals must have had in mind for a 5th overall pick.
Chris Mobley, RP, Marlins
He repeated the Southern League again this year along with four innings in Triple-A. Combined inning total for the season was 64.1 innings with a 72K/19BB ratio with only four long balls surrendered.
Jay Rainville, RHP, Twins
Rainville was drafted 39th overall in 2004. He had a 0.00 ERA in 54 IP his senior year of high school. Rainville is another pitcher on the list who has missed a whole season due to injury. Two-thousand and six was a lost year for him due to a shoulder nerve injury. Just 23 years old, Rainville got his first crack at Double-A this season and saw his fly ball tendencies catch up to him. He served up 22 gopher balls in just 123 innings of work. Rainville seems a long shot to be selected this season, as he most likely profiles as a middle reliever in the Majors at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start back at Double-A in 2009 to see if he could keep the ball down better.
Rusty Ryal, 2B, Diamondbacks
Ryal hit .274/.334/.443/.777 with 22 Doubles, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 35 BB, 96 K in 128 games. This could be Dan Uggla Part 2 for the D-Backs. Ryal's defense is much better then Dan Uggla's at this point in his career and is less error prone. Ryal doesn't run that well but he has a tremendous work ethic . Ryal struggled in the AFL this year, making the decision to leave him unprotected very easy for the Diamondbacks. With the current lack of second base depth in the D-Backs organization, they may regret leaving Ryal exposed.
Jeremy Slayden, OF, Phillies
Once part of the Georgia Tech high power offense along with Tyler Greene, Matt Wieters, and Wes Hodges. A shoulder problem has limited him to left field/DH. The contact skills improved after shorten his swing and a team might take a chance on him that more power will come. Nate Spears, 2B, Cubs Originally an Orioles draftee, Spears once again started out the 2008 season in the Southern League with the Tennessee Smokies and hit .299 with seven home runs and 51 RBIs in 115 games along with 22 doubles, five triples and 71 runs scored. He was awarded with a call-up to Iowa late in the season, where he went 5-for-18 with five runs scored in five games. He then was sent to the AFL. His contact ability and range at second is enough for a team to take a chance on him in the Major League phase of the draft.
Tim Stauffer, RHP, Padres
Stauffer was the 4th overall pick in the 2003 Draft. He was drafted while dealing with a shoulder injury. He was forthcoming about the injury when negotiating with the Padres and signed for just $750,000. He had recurring shoulder problems, eventually undergoing labrum surgery in May of 2008. Over five years after signing, he has four MLB wins under his belt. He is now 26 and one has to wonder how much -- if anything -- he has left in his arm. This is a classic case of how injuries can totally ruin a career and illustrates how drafting pitchers with very high picks can sometimes backfire.
Matt Torra, SP, Diamondbacks
Torra's success this year was a result of him relying less on his fastball and mixing in his changeup and curveball when he was behind in the count. Not only did he improve his control, he also keep his pitch count down going deeper into games doing what a back of the rotation starter should do: eat innings. He struggled in Tuscon by serving up 13 HR's and not missing many at bats. However, he still kept his control which he demonstrated very well in the Southern League. His starts were evenly spread across AA and AAA to 19 games each with a inning total of 157.1 innings with only 31BB/96K.
Carlos Torres, RHP, White Sox
Saw him several times this year with Birmingham. Pretty good control and his out pitch is a cutter. Did not fair to well in Triple-A in a limited role. He was 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 101 innings this year, fanning 93 while walking 29 overall. White Sox sent him to this year's Arizona Fall League.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Rays
Townsend was drafted in 2004 and 2005, 8th overall both times. His professional career can be summed up with one word: injuries. After leaving Rice -- a program known for abusing arms -- Townsend tore his ulnar collateral ligament while pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2005. He spent the 2006 season rehabbing and had a poor showing when returning to action in the South Atlantic League in 2007. Gopher ball tendencies and excessive walks were becoming a trend by that time. He had another disappointing season in 2008, lit up in three different leagues, again with control issues and home runs allowed being serious problems. Townsend will miss 2009 due to shoulder surgery, so his chance of being selected in the Rule 5 Draft is highly unlikely. An avid poker player, Townsend has had a lot of success when someone was dealing to him, but has not done much dealing of his own on the mound.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, Yankees
Whelan was a 4th Round pick in 2005. A flyball pitcher who is very tough to hit, Whelan's walk rates are likely the reason he is available for the Rule 5 Draft. A converted catcher, Whelan has only been a full time pitcher since 2005. He has started, closed and worked in middle relief as a professional. He profiles as a power middle relief arm, maybe even a closer down the line if he can harness his control a bit more. He has the odd combination of allowing few homers and being a flyball pitcher. Whelan came to the Yankees as part of the Gary Sheffield trade. His fastball reaches the mid 90's and he also possesses a good splitter. He did have two DL stints this season, with one being a forearm injury. However he was his usual self in the Arizona Fall League, with strong ratios across the board, walk rate not included. I would imagine that Whelan will be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Some team should gamble on his power arm, as risk/reward would certainly be in their favor.
Players of interest to go in the minor league phases
Ernesto Mejia ( Braves) Tony Barnette (Diamondbacks), Edgar Osuna (Braves) Jeff Allison ( Marlins), Greg Burns ( Marlins), Eric Campbell ( Braves), Daniel Mayora ( Rockies), Chris Nowak ( Rays), Kala Ka'aihue ( Braves), Jacob Marceaux ( Marlins), and Jordan Parraz ( Astros).
Rule 5 Draft Background
Every year in early December, the Rule 5 Draft allows teams to acquire relatively unknown players left off of 40-man rosters after three or more professional seasons. It was designed to prevent teams from stocking talent and promoting parity among teams. The draft also has a small minor league portion that is designed to help teams fill out affiliates rather than obtain talent. Players that are eligible for the major league portion of the draft are usually left unprotected due to a history of injuries, a weakness in their game, or overall failure on the diamond. However, that does not mean that other teams do not see something useful in these unprotected players. Meet Evan Meek:
Evan Meek was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 2002 MLB Draft in the 11th Round due to his size, power arm and strikeout potential that he had displayed throughout his college career at Bellevue Community College. The Twins got the power arm that they coveted but sadly it also came with control problems. In his 1st three pro seasons, Meeks had produced 70 strikeouts out of the bullpen in 73 innings along with 49 walks. The Twins quickly released Meeks early in the 2005 season after he issued 36 walks in 18 innings with only 11 strikeouts after once again repeating Low A ball. Meeks signed with the Padres in the offseason and was then traded to the Tampa Rays within the same season in the Russell Branyan trade. During his time as a starter with the Padres in the California League, Meeks was 6-6 with a 4.98 ERA in 25 starts but the Rays were intrigued with his numbers after they ignored two of his starts in which he gave up 17 runs in two-thirds of an inning. With those two starts taken out, Meeks pitched 119.1 innings while striking out 113 in only walking 62 with a 3.72 ERA.
Meeks would start the 2007 season in Double-A with the Montgomery Biscuits. Over the course of the 2007 season with the Biscuits, I had the chance to see Meek pitch against the Mobile Baybears several times and noticed that he continued to display a strong arm along with the same control problems while displaying a habit of nibbling around the corners instead of throwing aggressively in the strike zone. He wasn’t missing bats and this caused him to exit games much earlier then planned due to high pitch counts. He would later be hit in the head by a foul ball that would cause him to miss two weeks followed by another three weeks with a sore shoulder. He would return to finish the season strong and later report to the Arizona Fall League. Meek's 2007 Arizona Fall League stat line was 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 innings with three walks and nine strikeouts.
The Rays would end up leaving him unprotected after a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League. The Pirates had scouted Meek during the AFL and noticed that Meek had combined a good K rate along with a strong groundball tendency throughout his career and during his short stint in the AFL. A great combination for a situational pitcher. The Pittsburgh Pirates ended up drafting Evan Meek in the 2007 Rule 5 draft. Meek would see himself earning a spot in the Pirates bullpen to start the 2008 season. He made his major league debut Wednesday, April 2, 2008 and gave up a three-run homer in extra innings to the Atlanta Braves. Oddly, enough I was at that game. His stint in the majors was short due to control problems and the Pirates passed him through waivers. After he cleared, the Rays were given cash in exchange for the Pirates keeping Meeks. Meeks would then be sent to Indianapolis and later Altoona. During the 2008 campaign, Meeks continued to improve his control while at the same time keeping his groundout to fly out ratio around 2.00. Earlier this week, Meek was added to the Pirates 40-man roster and protected from the 2008 Rule 5 Draft.
The chances of Evan Meek being mentioned along the same lines that Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Joakim Soria are in regards to future Rule 5 discussions are small. However, he is a perfect example of why the draft is in place and how it can benefit teams that have limited payrolls. Meeks career could have simply lead to the Independent Leagues due to the pitching depth currently in the Rays organization had he not been given the chance for another team to access Meeks skill set in a different way. It does not really make sense for teams not to invest heavily in the Rule 5 draft when you consider the insane amount of money that is spent on situational pitchers. JC Romero's and his 59 innings of work with 38 walks cost the Phillies around 4 million dollars this year.