Revisiting the Top College Bats of 2006-2008

As a follow up to my piece On Evaluating College Hitters Quantitatively, I wanted to take a look at how hitters from recent drafts stack up. A quick refresher on my system, it’s based on multi-year data adjusted for park, conference, schedule, age, and positional effects. My system takes into account a player’s entire body of work, overall production, power, walk and strikeout rates as well as base running ability.

I’ve tweaked the algorithm a tad, placing more emphasis on walk rate and reducing the positional adjustment since so many players change positions so often. The result, I think, is an improved system that really stands out at picking potential flops. There are players who peak early and don’t maintain their levels of success in the pros but if my system thinks you’re going to flop, you’re probably going to flop. From 2001 to 2005, 16 players were taken in the first 30 picks and scored under 480 on my scale. Fourteen of those sixteen have failed to become good major leaguers. When I say ‘good major leaguers’ I mean, Kahlil Greene is the best hitter in the group. The two successes are Rangers outfielder David Murphy who’s become a low OBP, solid SLG corner outfielder and Troy Tulowitzki who makes his money with his glove.

Evan Longoria was a late bloomer in college. Undrafted out of high school, Longoria attended a junior college his freshman year. He then sprouted two inches, added 25 pounds of muscle and became an LBSU Dirtbag where he struggled as a sophomore. It really wasn’t until the summer before his junior year when Longoria showed well in the Cape Cod league and became an uber-prospect. My system is set to be skeptical of players who see a major jump in performance (Stats 101: outliers usually aren’t sustainable). However, we’re looking at a unique talent and a system based largely on similar players will always underrate ballplayers of Longoria’s caliber.

Drew Stubbs was the first college centerfielder taken top 10 overall since J.D. Drew in 1998 despite the fact that his performance at Texas did not indicate future success. While he may be to tools what Gary Busey is to crazy, Stubbs whiffed over 20% of the time each year as a Longhorn – Kelly Shoppach is the only player since 2000 to strike out even close to that often and sniff the big leagues. Stubbs contact rate remains a red flag on his minor league resume, as well.

Think what you want about Matt Antonelli as a prospect – I still think he’ll be a good player – his college years were virtually flawless. He walked a lot (19% as a sophomore), was productive, hit for power, showed great contact and was a plus on the base paths. Don’t take the rankings to mean that I think Antonelli was a better prospect than Longoria, only that he was more established at the time.

I’m going out on a limb. I think Matt Wieters is going to be a pretty good player.

Matt LaPorta is the only senior drafted in the top 50 during this stretch. LaPorta was as dominate a hitter as you’ll find in 2007, going .402/.582/.817 with more home runs (20) than strikeouts (16). However my system knocks him down slightly due to his injury plagued junior season and a sophomore season in which he struck out at an alarming rate (19.75%).

Todd Frazier was a high power, high walk, and strikeout guy with good speed. His strikeout rate is on the verge of concerning given the quality of competition he faced at Rutgers, but he was so well-rounded offensively that I think the two balance out.

Congratulations to Julio Borbon for posting the lowest walk rate I have in my database. In my attempt to be Mr. Obvious, I’ll point out that this doesn’t bode well for his career as a leadoff hitter.

Kellen Kulbacki was one of the greatest college hitters ever. He posted a 1323 OPS as a junior, which represented a decrease of nearly 200 points from the year before. His numbers don’t look quite as legendary after adjusting for strength of schedule, but the Padres got great value at pick No. 40.

I don’t really get how you can choose Jackson Williams over Josh Donaldson.

I'll admit it. I have no idea what to make of Pedro Alvarez. His strikeout rate was over 20% for two years then plummeted to 14%. That 14%, however, was in a year in which he managed less than 200 plate appearances. His walk rate also fell from 19% as a freshman to 14% as a junior. I’ve seen him lay off a 3-2 fastball half an inch off the outside corner and I’ve seen him flail widely at a slider three feet outside. Given the scouting reports on him and his potential, I don’t mind viewing him as an Evan Longoria type – just doesn’t fit with conventional wisdom. That said, given this draft class’ depth of high-ceiling bats, I would have passed on Alvarez at No. 2 and let someone else hope this lotto ticket cashes in.

Yonder Alonso is the anti-Julio Borbon, posting the highest sustained walk rate I’ve found.

As a Ranger fan, the Astros’ selection of Jason Castro was a moment of pure joy. If I was a fan of the ‘Stros, I’d have been madder than Christian Bale.

Count me, and the system, as skeptical of Ike Davis and Reese Havens. Both guys were well regarded high school talents who broke out in 2007, but both guys also had worrisome zone judgment as underclassmen and lack a truly standout skill.

We are just three short years away from Tim McCarver making Dustin Pedroia comps to Johnny Giovatella.

Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@projectprospect.com.