I've never felt confident enough to attempt deep organizational minor league rankings before, but 1,000+ hours of research have put me in a position where I feel like I have something that I can defend. The rankings below are stictly based on the positional prospects each organization has under its control. I'll publish my pitching rankings soon, then wrap things up with overall organizational rankings. I've provided some details on my methods following the chart below.
| Organizational Position Prospect Rankings | ||||||
| No. | Team | Comments | Dev +/- | |||
| 1 | Marlins | High-upside talents such as Maybin and Stanton could help create an elite, home-grown offensive core | 2.67 | |||
| 2 | Rangers | Smoak, M. Ramirez, Andrus headline elite system; 1 Top 50 prospect away from matching FLA for me | 2.00 | |||
| 3 | Athletics | Don't have one really elite hitter, but seven I like a lot; Cardenas/Cunningham/Carter are inside my Top 100 | 1.08 | |||
| 4 | Braves | Besides FLA guys, Heyward/Schafer may be best 1-2 MiLB hitting punch; ATL depth doesn't stop there | 0.92 | |||
| 5 | Indians | Led by LaPorta, CLE has 4 hitters in my Top 100 -- Santana, Weglarz, and Mills; big drop after those guys | 0.83 | |||
| 6 | Royals | Moustakas + Hosmer + Kaaihue + Giavotella = above-average hitting system; drastic drop after those four | 0.75 | |||
| 7 | Padres | Depth, depth, depth; SD may not have an impact rookie in '09 (Antonelli?), but I think they'll groom one by '11 | 0.75 | |||
| 8 | Brewers | They have 6 hitting prospect who I like a lot, including Lorenzo Cain, who could lead this org entering '10 | 0.75 | |||
| 9 | Cardinals | Don't need much depth with guys like Rasmus/Wallace; Daryl Jones is also in my Top 100, but that's it here | 0.67 | |||
| 10 | Orioles | Yes, I would take Wieters basically by himself over 20 other systems -- including every one in the AL East | 0.67 | |||
| 11 | Red Sox | Lars Anderson is their only elite guy now, but BOS has enough depth that someone will break out this year | 0.58 | |||
| 12 | Pirates | Addition of Alvarez/Tabata helps mask Neil Walker's near plummet; nice wild card in Robbie Grossman | 0.53 | |||
| 13 | Reds | I think this system is similar to Boston's -- one big guy then lots of upside; Int signees will be fun to follow | 0.53 | |||
| 14 | Mariners | Some great upside in Halman/Triunfel; solid prospects in Tuiasosopo/Saunders; followed by a big dropoff | 0.33 | |||
| 15 | Mets | F-Martinez is lone star in NYM system, complemented by Nick Evans -- and Wilmer Flores has a high upside | 0.32 | |||
| 16 | Rockies | Aside from Fowler, Seth Smith and EY Jr., the Rockies don't have many established hitting prospects | 0.17 | |||
| 17 | Yankees | A-Jax/the Jesus may turn into ave. MLB players, but there isn't much depth here; I do like Gardner, though | -0.08 | |||
| 18 | Blue Jays | Potential stud hitter in Snider and solid prospect in Cooper; I'm not high on Arencibia; keep an eye on Emaus | -0.14 | |||
| 19 | White Sox | Could turn into good system quickly if G. Beckham/D. Viciedo pan out; Allen/Flowers have promising power | -0.14 | |||
| 20 | Giants | I'm not yet confident that Villalona will turn into an average MLBer; Posey can only carry a system so far | -0.33 | |||
| 21 | Rays | Tampa will have to wait for the T. Beckham/D. Jennings show; Brignac hasn't hit since '06 -- Cal League | -0.41 | |||
| 22 | Nationals | Chance of shooting up this list in '09; Marrero/Burgess = elite power; Hood/E. Gonzalez have high upsides | -0.41 | |||
| 23 | Twins | If you don't believe in Parmelee, you may expect Twins even lower, despite Hicks/Revere; not much depth | -0.50 | |||
| 24 | Phillies | D. Brown is a talented prospect, but I'd be cautious with Taylor/Donald; Collier does offer a high upside | -0.75 | |||
| 25 | Cubs | Earmuffs Cubs fans…Vitters is the only Cubs' hitter who I currently have listed as a Top 200 prospect | -1.08 | |||
| 26 | Dodgers | De Jesus is only LAD bat inside my Top 100 right now -- Lambo's just outside my Top 150; then big drop | -1.25 | |||
| 27 | Angels | The Angels should hope Conger steps up in '09; they don't really have many other potential breakout guys | -1.42 | |||
| 28 | Astros | Bogusevic…Castro…Bogusevic…Castro…Bogusevic…Castro…Bogusevic…Castro…Bogusevic... | -1.47 | |||
| 29 | Tigers | Casper Wells, 24, owned AA; Ryan Streiby, 23, has power, no speed; not much other upside here | -1.47 | |||
| 30 | Diamondbacks | Quick! Name a ARI hitting prospect besides Gerado Parra! Guys who were left Rule 5 eligible don't count! | -1.67 | |||
| <<< Discuss these rankings | ||||||
Notes
The rankings above are based on my evaluations of over 300 of the top hitting prospects in the minor leagues. The Dev +/- column refers to how far the team deviates from what I calculated to be an average organization -- in this case, pretty much the Colorado Rockies.
Methods
Approximately 250 of the prospects I looked at grade as legitimate in my system -- a score of 75 or above on a 1 to 100 scale. I found the average (79.14) and standard deviation (2.35) of these player's scores. I then set up a scoring rubric based on deviations from the mean, calibrated to put a lot of value into the top prospects in the game while still giving teams some credit for solid prospects -- five Taylor Teagardens are worth approximately one Matt Wieters.
I'm happy to respond to any questions about my rankings at adamf@projectprospect.com.