It's baseball season again, and my inbox is filling up with fantasy questions! Here's one that I became interested in earlier this afternoon:
I noticed that in a recent list of Top 50 pitchers under 25, Clay Buchholz was listed at No. 17. This brings me to my question. In a few days my 9-player keeper list is due in my 10-team, AL-only, 5x5 league. My first seven are no-brainers. I'm also planning to keep Kevin Slowey for $5. For my final spot, I'm trying to decide between Carlos Pena ($20) and Clay Buchholz ($2). (Salaries double every other year.)
Who would you recommend keeping? - Alan Feyerherm, Falls Church, Virginia
Hi Alan,
So we're essentially looking at Carlos Pena's age 31-32 seasons versus Clay Buchholz' age 24-29 seasons. More specifically, you could have Pena for $20 (reasonable) this year and next, then $40 in 2011 and 2012
(probably not worth it) or Buchholz for $2 in 2009-2010, $4 in 2011-2012, $8 in
2013-2014, $16 in 2015-2016, $32 in 2017-2018, and $64 in 2019-2020 -- that's a lot of numbers!
Buchholz isn't a lock to become a top-of-the-rotation starter. On top of pitchers being risky due the fact that throwing puts valgus stress on the elbow, I believe they also have a much more difficult jump from Triple-A to the bigs than hitters. That said, Buchholz is one of the better bets in baseball, among pitchers under 25, to find success in the big leagues -- hasn't had a major injury, strikes a lot of batters out, decent command, good ground-ball rates.
I'd have Buchholz as the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball if he was eligible right now -- behind Price, ahead of Bumgarner.
If you could keep him for the bulk of his career, would "the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball" be worth more than the tail end of Carlos Pena's prime? I'd think of this as a potential trade. Given the contracts, it may not be that dissimilar to how big league teams would be thinking, too. The big difference here is that your league has 10 teams instead of 30.
Suppose the Red Sox offered the Rays this deal? I'd imagine the Rays would strongly consider taking it. But as far as your situation goes, I'm torn right now. The upside fan in me wants the potential ace's career. The low-risk side of me says go with the current above-average big leaguer -- Pena ranked 4th among American League first basemen by wOBA last season -- behind Miguel Cabera, ahead of Justin Morneau; 2nd in UZR/150 behind Daric Barton.
If you can make a run in 2009, I'd consider keeping Pena. If not, Buchholz may be your guy. You also probably would benefit by making a serious effort to trade one of these guys.
Good luck!
Adam Foster
adamf@projectprospect.com