All college baseball discussions start with San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg. The future number one overall pick has made three starts so far this season and tallied strikeout totals of 11, 16 and 18. In 20.1 innings pitched this season Strasburg has struck out 57.6% of batters faced and walked just 5.1%. I'd say he's putting up video game type numbers, but I'm not that good at video games. Quick! Name another college baseball pitcher. Stephen Strasburg is better than whoever you just named.
To put Strasburg's numbers a bit into perspective, let's look at North Carolina righthander Alex White (pictured to the right) who is generally considered the number two pitching prospect in this draft. After three starts White has struck out 26.6% and walked 5.3%. Solid numbers to be sure, but they pale in comparison to Strasburg.
Baylor righty Kendal Volz has had an odd start to his season. The possible first round pick has a 1-0 record with a sterling 1.86 ERA. However, Volz has struck out just 17.6% of batters and walked 12.2%. Volz's ERA is kept low by an unsustainably low .166 average on balls in play.
Last year, Tenneessee outfielder Kentrail Davis was a productive, toolsy freshman who looked poised to breakout in 2009. It turns out that the high expectations surrounding Davis this spring were too low. He's hitting .294/.538/.618 with 15 walks and just seven strikeouts in 52 plate appearances. After an impressive .253 IsoP last year, he's up to .324 this year. Davis needed to improve his zone judgment this season in order to justify a first round selection, but the improvement he's shown so far is historic. Davis has improved his walk rate from 9.8% last year to 28.8% this year while decreasing his strikeout rate from 22.8% to 13.5%. Matt LaPorta made similar improvement from 2006 to 2007; his walk rate went from 14 to 22.5% and his K% went from 17 to 6.5%. LaPorta has gone on to become on of the best offensive prospects in all of the minor leagues, but LaPorta made his improvement from his injury plagued junior season to his senior year. Davis, a draft-eligible sophomore, is showing that kind of improvement from this freshman to sophomore years.
While Davis has been among the most encouraging stories in college baseball this spring, USC shortstop Grant Green has been perhaps the most discouraging. Arguably the top positional prospect in the country coming into the spring, Green has struggled coming on out of the gate. After 41 plate appearances Green is hitting just .229/.341/.371 with three walks and nine strikeouts. Thought of as a sure fielder, Green has made five errors in the season's first 10 games. The season is young and Green certainly has the talent to breakout, but he's going to need to soon in order to justify being a first round pick much less a top five overall selection.
Catcher and former prep star Robert Stock has been one of the few bright spots for a USC Trojan team that has struggled to a 4-6 record, including losing two of three from Tulane this weekend. Though he's yet to hit for the power he showed in high school, Stock is leading the team in hitting and remains one of the most difficult hitters in the country to strikeout. Given his talent, his teammate (Green), the school and position he plays, Stock is sure to be one of the most closely scouted players in the country this year. If he maintains the improvement he's shown in his game, he'll make himself some serious money this spring. Stock is currently hitting .324/.359/.486 with just four strikeouts in 39 plate appearances.
D.J. LeMahieu has decided to go all Gordon Beckham/Buster Posey on us. The LSU shortstop was one of the worst players in my system last year, managing just a .310 wOBA* and showing no power. Yet whenever you watch LeMahieu play you come away impressed. Tall (6-foot-4) and athletic with some bat speed, you see flashes of power that never seemed to show up during games. Somebody let the tools onto the field this year. Through 50 plate appearances, LeMahieu is hitting .526/.620/.895 with seven walks and just five strikeouts. Sure handed with a strong arm but lacking great range, LeMahieu is likely to move to third base in the pros. He's beginning to show that his bat can handle a defensive shift away from the middle of the diamond.
The LSU Tigers just had a 25 game regular season winning streak snapped, but the team has seen more than their fair share of impressive performances. Junior outfielder Jared Mitchell has shown a similar turnaround as LeMahiue from toolsy project to a true force on the diamond. Mitchell is hitting .455/.625/.909 with 10 walks and only three strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. Mitchell doubles as a wide receiver/kick returner for the LSU football team and is 10-for-10 stealing bases. Half of Mitchell's hits have gone for extra bases, and though he's only been on first base 15 times, he has 10 steals. The speed and power are for real. If the production and zone judgment prove to be real, we're looking at an elite player.
One of the best pure hitters in the country is Georgia Bulldog's first baseman Rich Poythress. The big righthander hasn't missed a beat so far this year hitting .438/.542/.833 with 10 walks and five strikeouts in 59 plate appearances. Poythress has legit power and has posted a .395 IsoP despite the face that Georgia plays in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the nation (78 PF, BoydsWorld.)
Dustin Ackley continues to do what Dustin Ackleys do best; get on base. The North Carolina Tar Heel star is hitting .341/.482/.455 with 11 walks and seven strikeouts in 56 plate appearances. Ackley, however, has yet to play the outfield, after an offseason full of speculation about his ability to man center field. He also hasn't hit for much power -- the one real knock on his offensive game. In a draft devoid of upper echelon talent, besides Strasburg, Ackley has the potential to go No. 2 overall. But unless he can show the ability to play up the middle defensively or start hitting for more power, he's likely to fall on draft day.
You can find Lincoln Hamilton and keep track of all the college baseball action on our College and Draft Talk Forum.