College Baseball Review (Weeks 4-5)

March 23, 2009

This past Friday San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg held BYU to two hits in seven innings. Strasburg struck out 15 and walked two, moving his season totals to 74 strikeouts and seven walks out of 130 total batters faced (56.9% K, 5.4% BB). While I still feel like he is a significant injury risk long-term, I think he could be one of the best pitchers in the major leagues today. He ranked 12th on our Top 50 Pitchers under 25 list before the season started, he could be top 5 on the list next year. 

Arizona State pitcher Mike Leake went the distance for the Sun Devils versus in state rival Arizona allowing just five hits one walk and 15 strikeouts. On the season the righthander has struck out 32.4% of hitters and walked just 4.7%. Leake commands a four pitch mix very well, with his fastball siting in the low 90's. Though I am concerned about his arm action, he has late forearm rotation which can lead to timing problems and added stress on the shoulder, he has been durable during his college career. Standing just 6-feet tall with average fastball velocity, Leake is the kind of prospect who tends to get over looked. However his command, multiple breaking pitches, poise, pitchability, and athleticism are all plus and give Leake a pretty high floor.

A 2006 Freshman All-American, Alex Wilson, 22, was once atop virtually all 2009 draft boards. After dominating at Winthrop his freshman year, Wilson elected to transfer to Texas A&M where he was forced to redshirt last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. As an Aggie this year, Wilson has struck out 38.8% of hitters while walking just 6.3% while facing a tough schedule (109.8, 31st most difficult) and spending half his games in a severe hitter's park (125 PF, BoydsWorld). His stuff is as good as his numbers. Wilson throws a heavy fastball that sits mid 90's with late sink and a slider may already be a major league quality out pitch. He reminds me a bit of Rich Harden as his injury history and lack of physical projection (he's listed a 6-foot-1 and 205 lbs) deflate his draft stock but there are few pitchers with a better combination of stuff, command, and performance.  

Dustin Ackley is finally hitting for power! The North Carolina stud has moved his season averages to .434/.530/.711 with 16 walks and 12 strike outs in 100 plate appearances. Ackley (pictured above) has five home runs and has boosted his IsoP to a very solid .277 (it was .180 last season). Though he's only played a handful of innings in the outfield, Ackley's bat is the safest in the his draft could lead him to be drafted as high as second overall. 

Ackley isn't the only offensive star for the talented Tar Heels. Second baseman Kyle Seager is one of the better hitters in the country that no one is talking about. Nearly matching Ackley in overall production in each of the last two seasons, Seager is hitting .427/.515/.549 with 16 walks and just seven strikeouts in 87 plate appearances. Though his power has declined from last year (.250 IsoP to .122 IsoP) Seager's zone judgment and contact ability place him among the elite hitters in this year's class. If he can stick defensively at second, he could be a valuable player.

UNC's Friday night starter Alex White has struggled to live up to the hype this season. Striking out just 26.6% and walking 8.1% White has been rather pedestrian so far. After giving up two home runs in a Friday start versus Duke, White's season tally is up to five in just 30.1 inning pitched. Add in that he plays in a pitchers park (93 PF, BoydsWorld) and the mechanical concerns I've raised and you get a guy who might no longer be a top 10 pick.

It raised a few eyebrows when my college ranking system put Indiana catcher Josh Phegley as the best offensive prospect in the draft. Phegley's performance simply can not be ignored. Through 97 plate appearances, Phegley is hitting .411/.515/.740 with 17 walks and 14 strikeouts. Indiana isn't exactly known for it's baseball program -- in fact when I searched for IU baseball the Did You Mean feature said IU basketball. This year's high school crop of backstops is as deep as any in recent history, but Phegley remains the top offensive catcher on my draft board.  

LSU shortstop D.J. LeMahieu has cooled off a bit after an unsustainable start. Through the first three weeks of the season LeMahieu was hitting .526/.620/.895 but just two weeks later his season totals sit at .384/.489/.575 with 12 strikeouts and 12 walks in 90 plate appearances.

While LeMahieu is starting to revert back to his 2008 form, Jared Mitchell continues to maintain much of his improvement. The talented outfielder is still hitting .400/.589/.740 with 22 walks and 11 strikeouts in 73 plate appearances. Perhaps the most shocking thing is that Mitchell has actually been thrown out on the bases a couple of time, he is now 19 for 21 in stolen base attempts. The only bad thing I can say about Mitchell's prospect status is that he's been so good, you wonder if its sustainable - is he really a 30+% walk guy? No, he only walked 7% of the time last year. But if his contact rate is for real, he's in the conversation for the No. 2 pick.

 

Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@projectprospect.com.