1. Jordan Zimmerman -- Building on his 2007 short-season ball success (32.9% K, 8.3% BB), Zimmerman owned High-A hitters (31.3% K, 8.1% BB, 99 TBF) then found some success in Double-A last season (23.5% K, 8.9% BB, 439 TBF). While the 6-foot-1, 200-pounder's 7.8% drop in strikeouts from High-A to Double-A is a little concerning, note that he did strike out 27.7% of the Double-A batters he faced in July and August. Zimmerman also put together a solid 48% ground ball rate in Double-A. Slated to make his big league debut once Washington needs a No. 5 starter this season, Zimmerman left college with a plus fastball and a changeup and curve that looked like potential average pitches (source: MiLB.com). We see Zimmerman as a solid bet to be at least a No. 3 starter. If his curve turns into more than an average pitch, he could become a top-of-the-rotation starter.
2. Chris Marrero -- There's a lot more uncertainty with Marrero than many of our Top 100 prospects. He only logged 287 plate appearances in 2008 after breaking his right fibula in June. And he spent half of his first full pro season in High-A -- as a 19-year-old. At this point, Marrero is a streaky power hitter (.205 IsoP in '08) with mediocre contact skills (19.2% K) and little defensive value. Though he opened the 2009 season back in High-A, he'll likely be in Double-A by midseason. Elite draft prospects like Marrero can fly through Triple-A once they've proven themselves in Double-A. So the 20-year-old could be closer to the big leagues than some people might think.
3. Michael Burgess -- We thought Burgess should have been taken inside of the top 30 picks of the 2007 Draft -- he lasted until the 49th overall pick. An exceptional power hitter who strikes out a ton and walks a lot (29.8% K, 10.1% BB in '08), Burgess is going to have to make strides as a contact hitter in order to ever reach the big leagues. His .231 isolated power from his first full season was the 4th-best in the South Atlantic League -- behind Mike Stanton, Cody Johnson, and Brandon Laird. Burgess did not exhibit much speed last season, and his UZR/150 was -7. If he doesn't have a breakout contact season in 2009, Burgess' prospect star will fade significantly.
4. Jack McGeary -- Truthfully, no GCL performance is worth putting much weight into. And McGeary's lone 2008 short-season start wasn't too impressive (4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 Er, 3 BB, 5 K). So why do we have the lefty ranked as the 89th-best prospect in the game? McGeary's a very abnormal prospect. He was considered a great bet to be a first rounder out of high school (2007), but lasted until the 6th round due to a strong commitment to Stanford. The Nationals wound up signing McGeary -- for the 4th-largest prep arm bonus that year -- and he went to Stanford. His plan was to focus on school during the school year then play baseball during the summer (5.5% BB, 27.7% K last year). This year, he's not going to miss the start of the minor league season in order to focus on school, as he's the Hagerstown Sun's roster (Low-A). Owner of a low-90s fastball and a potential plus curve, the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder has the potential to blossom into one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the game. This year will be a big test for McGeary, but we liked him a lot in 2007 and we like him a lot now.
5. Shairon Martis -- The second-youngest pitcher in Triple-A last year, Martis was pretty productive at the level last year -- 9.3% BB, 23.1% K, 30% GB, .342 BABIP, 2% HR/Air. Yes, his ground-ball rate is ugly and his HR/Air rate isn't sustainable. But his he works with a low-90s fastball, offers a change with similar movement that's 10-15 MPH slower, and has a breaking ball (source: The Hardball Times). Martis wasn't dominant in High-A (8.0% BB, 16.4% K, 36% GB) or Double-A (8.8% BB, 18.0% K, 42% GB), for that matter. We think his Triple-A improvements (182 TBF) are a sign of good things to come. Martis' upside may only be that of a No. 4 starter. With his age versus level and production, we think Martis has a pretty high floor. And his ceiling may be higher than a lot of people think, depending on how his breaking ball progresses.
HM -- Jake Smolinski, Destin Hood, and Ross Detwiler.