Scouting Report: Jordan Zimmermann's MLB Debut

The following information was gathered from Jordan Zimmermann's April 20th start against the Atlanta Braves. I watched the game live, charted it with Pitch-F/X, and then watched it again on MLB.TV.

The Basics:

Four-seam fastball: While Zimmermann throws hard, his fastball wasn't fooling the Braves much tonight. All six of their hits were off of the pitch -- including a Matt Diaz no-doubt homer in the fourth inning (0-2 count). He doesn't hide the pitch well. And while it does have some occasional movement (tailing action into righties), it's pretty straight. Zimmermann also struggled hitting his spots with his four-seamer, especially late in the game. He threw it for strikes, just didn't always command it well in the zone. On the plus side, he's not afraid to challenge hitters with high fastballs.

Slider: Zimmermann has two big things going with his slider: 1) He throws it for strikes and 2) It comes from a similar arm slot as his fastball. He doesn't tilt his wrist to spin the pitch until late in his delivery, allowing him to mask it well -- along with his arm slot. Overall, I wasn't too impressed with the movement on this pitch (tails away from righties). He had a few that had great life, but more often than not, the pitch didn't break much. Zimmermann struck out Jeff Francoeur with a slider in the fifth inning.

Curveball: I was more impressed with the movement on Zimmermann's curve than his slider. It had tight, late movement that few hitters were able to adjust to. This is going to be his strikeout pitch. I see it as a potential plus pitch. But he still has some adjustments to make with it, as he struggled getting it into the strike zone this outing. Zimmermann struck out Jordan Schafer and Chipper Jones with curveballs.

Two-seam fastball: This pitch has more movement than his four-seamer (also tails into righties), but it isn't a swing-and-miss pitch, though he did throw a few that moved well. Zimmermann's two-seam fastball may very well be his "changeup". And this pitch was about seven miles per hour slower than his fastball.

Box Score Breakdown:

6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (22 TBF, 9 GO-7 FO, 51 strikes out of 72 pitches [70.8%])

Before you get too excited about Zimmermann's GO-FO ratio, note that he got two "ground balls" on Derek Lowe pop-up bunts that Nick Johnson let fall in front of him -- attempts by Johnson to turn double plays. He walked Cody Ross. Four of the six hits Zimmermann allowed went for extra bases, though poor defense and a wet field were to blame for a couple of them.

Overall Opinion:

Zimmermann's a very unique pitcher. I've never felt so comfortable endorsing a guy without much of a changeup. I was really impressed with his ability to pound the strike zone. His command is better than I expected.

Zimmermann's fastball comes in harder than just about any starter's fastball I've seen this year, but it's not close to being one of the best I've seen -- give me Rick Porcello's over his any day. Pitch-F/X didn't distinguish any of Zimmermann's pitches as a changeup. I also didn't see anything that clearly stuck out as a changeup -- Beyond the Box Score did see one, though. I'm not sure he needs to bother with a traditional changeup at this stage of his development. His curve, slider, and two-seam fastball could all be average offerings or better.

I think his curveball development will determine whether he turns into a potential No. 1-2 starter or winds up as a No. 3-4. The league will catch up to the pitcher who took the mound today. And he'll give up a lot of home runs with his four-seam fastball. Still, he's a safe bet to stick as a big leaguer. The Nationals absolutely stole him in the 2007 Draft (67th overall). Zimmermann could easily wind up as the second-best college arm from his class -- only behind David Price, who signed for more than 10 times as much as Zimmermann.

We plan to post Scouting Reports regularly this season. Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.