Starting with the clear-cut No. 1 Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State righthander went the distance on Friday versus New Mexico (who lead the country in runs scored) for his first complete game shutout of the year. Strasburg scattered seven hits and walked only one while striking out 14. On the season Strasburg has struck out 51.5% of batters while walking 8.8%. At this point, I feel comfortable saying that Stephen Strasburg is the best college pitcher of all-time.
North Carolina righty Alex White has been vying for the No. 2 spot behind Strasburg all year, and made his best case last Friday. White one-hit the University of Miami, striking out 10 and walking just one during a complete game shutout. White has nasty stuff: a mid-90's fastball with late life that acts like a turbo-sinker and a filthy slider that will be an out pitch in the majors. Friday was one of the few times White actually dominated like his stuff suggests he's capable of. On the season White has struck out 28.1% and walked 10.9% of batters faced. After watching him pitch, I'm scared by his mechanics. White has very late forearm turnover, which creates timing problems and adds stress to the shoulder. That problem is multiplied by his dangerous level of elbow hyperabduction -- he takes his pitching elbow well above his shoulder height. His stuff will certainly play in the bullpen, unfortunately, without major mechanical adjustments he's likely to end up there.
Fellow Tar Heel Dustin Ackley just keeps hitting. Though he's yet to play much outfield, Ackley's shown legit power this year (.310 IsoP). On the season Ackley is hitting .399/.508/.709 with 33 walks and 19 strikeouts in 197 plate appearances. Am I crazy for thinking he could be Nick Markakis? A .300/.400/.500 hitter and plus outfield defender? Ackley seems to be the clear No. 1 hitter available come June and a certain top three pick.
I've gone against the grain and been vocal in my skepticism of USC shortstop Grant Green, a projected top 10 pick. After a terrible start, Green has his triple slash numbers up to .371/.440/.561 with 13 walks and 26 strikeouts in 150 plate appearances. I worry that his strikeout rate is still too high, but it's at least trending downward. Historically, I've found that a walk rate less than 10.0% or a strikeout rate higher than 17.0% spell doom for a hitter. Green currently has a 8.6% walk rate and a 17.3% strikeout rate. He's hit for less power this year than last (.190 IsoP this year, .254 IsoP last year). Given his tools I can still see him being a solid MLB regular, but I don't see the star upside many have seen in Green. For me personally, there's too big a chance that he tops out at being Bobby Crosby to take him early in round one.
Rich Poythress kills pitching. The University of Georgia first baseman is sporting a .403/.506/.805 line with 29 walks and 21 strikeouts in 181 plate appearances (16.0% BB, 11.6% K). The Kodiak Bear has cemented his status as a first round pick this spring.
LSU outfielder Jared Mitchell is one of the most difficult prospects to evaluate in this draft. As toolsy as any hitter in this class, Mitchell is hitting .310/.470/.595 with a mind mending 33 walks. However, Mitchell has also struck out 26.5% of the time and is still raw, having never fully devoted his athletic attention to baseball.
I got my first long look at Mike Minor a few days ago and came away impressed with the Vanderbilt ace. Tall and sturdy at 6-foot-4 and about 210 pounds, the left handed Minor works with a fastball that sits in the low-90's, touching 94 mph, a fantastic changeup as well as a solid slider and curveball. Minor showed plus command of solid stuff and an advanced knowledge of how to set hitters up -- several Florida batters looked confused during the game. Minor showed smooth mechanics, getting the ball up to the driveline quickly and using his legs and core to generate power. Minor has a bit of a back bend early in his delivery, that trunk flexion may lead to increased velocity in the near future. On the season, Minor has struck out 28.1% of hitters while walking 7.3% in the difficult SEC. Minor projects as a relatively safe bet to be at least a No. 3 or 4 starter and an innings eater, but I think he has a little more upside than some give him credit for.
Indiana catcher and Project Prospect favorite Josh Phegley keeps doing his best to quiet his critics. The Hoosier backstop is hitting .378/.480/.652 while walking in 14.7% of his plate appearances and striking out 13.1% of the time. Catchers with his hitting ability, patience, and power are rare, but doubts surround his defensive ability. After watching a few IU games, I think Phegley can stick behind the plate, though it's unlikely he'll ever be a plus, or even average, defender. In terms of build, batting stance, swing, and college production Phegley reminds me a lot of current White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin. Even if he is forced to move positions, I believe in his bat.
Phegley's battery mate, righthander Eric Arnett, has been very impressive this season after entering the spring with little fanfare. A big, athletic, fireballer, Arnett has been one of the best pitchers in the Big 10 this season, striking out 25.6% of hitters while walking just 7.1%. Arnett has smooth mechanics, with a 93-95 mph fastball that touches 96 mph coming from a terrific downhill plane. His slider should be a plus pitch, coming from the same arm angle as his fastball and breaking very late. Arnett's curve ball is a big, slow looper that changes the hitter's eye line and has good speed differential from his other pitches. A workhorse (four complete games this year) with good stuff and upside, Arnett is a possible first rounder and shouldn't last past the second round.
Contact Lincoln at lhamilton@projectprospect.com,