1. Pedro Alvarez -- Alvarez was all over the news for all the wrong reasons last year. He missed time at Vanderbilt with a broken hamate bone. He missed more time after that, as it took him four months to sign with the Pirates after being taken No. 2 overall in June's draft. When Alvarez is making headlines on the field, though, there's a lot to like. The 6-foot-3, 235-pounder is a high-upside hitter, having displayed impressive power and a keen eye at the dish while playing collegiately; he has a .192 IsoP and 19.1% BB rate through 68 High-A plate appearances. Low contact rates, however, could spell a relatively low floor for Alvarez, as his 14.14 K% as a senior was the third lowest among top 50 college picks last year. He also doesn't profile to be any better than an average defensive third baseman. In short, there's a lot to like about Alvarez, but his potential comes with its share of caution flags, too.
2. Andrew McCutchen -- McCutchen was more productive in Triple-A last season than his .283/.371/.398 vital line would lead most to believe. The 5-foot-11, 175-pounder had a strong 11.5% BB rate -- his highest since rookie ball -- and did damage once he reached the base paths, swiping 34 bags. He was thrown out 19 times, though (64.2% success rate). Overall, McCutchen posted a respectable .345 wOBA for a 21-year-old. Power certainly isn't the name of McCutchen's game, as he's never netted an IsoP above .166 as a professional; he had a .115 IsoP last year. Given his plate discipline and speed, however, McCutchen profiles to be an average -- and maybe slightly above -- big league centerfielder. He could be asked to fill that role at some point this season.
3. Jose Tabata -- Tabata's prospect status has been in a bit of a free fall for the past three years. The Venezuela native was ranked No. 26 overall in our 2007 Top 100; he dropped to No. 35 and then No. 76 in our 2008 Top 150 and current Top 200, respectively. Formerly known as a high-upside talent who was young for his level, Tabata is now 21 years of age and repeating Double-A. He tore up the level after being traded to the Pirates (.414 wOBA in 97 PA), but had more than his share of Double-A struggles in the Yankees' chain in a much larger sample before being dealt (.289 wOBA in 329 PA). The potential that made Tabata a one-time blue chip prospect is still there. His odds of living up to that potential, however, appear to be somewhat suspect. At this point, it's hard to profile Tabata as much more than an average major leaguer.
4. Brad Lincoln -- The No. 4 overall pick in the 2006 draft, Lincoln missed the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery. Lincoln came back from the injury displaying impressive command, posting a 3.9% BB rate in 103.2 innings between Low-A and High-A last season. He had a 17.2% strikeout rate. The biggest thing holding the 5-foot-11, 180-pounder back is his health. Lincoln also turns 24 in May and has just 14 Double-A innings under his belt. If he can speed up the growth curve a bit, it's possible that Lincoln could still become a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
5. Robbie Grossman -- Taken in the sixth round in June's draft, Grossman passed up an offer to play college ball at Texas to sign with the Pirates for $1 million. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound outfielder is off to a .236/.311/.327 start in 61 Low-A plate appearances.
HM -- Daniel Moskos and Neil Walker.
Contact Adam Loberstein at aloberstein@projectprospect.com.