Editor's note: The rankings below are from our pre-season 2009 Top 200.
1. Derek Holland - Holland went from a relative unknown to an elite pitching prospect as quickly as anyone in recent memory. While the fireballing lefthander has already made his MLB debut, after just four innings at Triple-A, it was Holland's 2008 campaign that put him on the map (27.6% K and 6.8% BB). The Rangers plan on using Holland out of the bullpen for the time being. Their bullpen could use the help, but he should eventually be transitioned to starting. If he can continue to develop his changeup, Holland is an ace. If it doesn't, then the Rangers may have to settle for a solid No. 2 starter.
2. Neftali Feliz - When you talk about Neftali Feliz it's all about velocity and upside, I've personally seen him hit 100 mph. You can count on one hand the number of pitchers on the planet who can rival his upside. Starting last year at High-A Clinton, Feliz struck out 32.7% of batters while walking a reasonable 8.6%. However, those numbers have gone backwards slightly. In Double-A, Feliz struck out a solid 25.4% while his walk rate rose to 12.4% -- a walk rate which should cause some concern. While former teammate Derek Holland is currently holding his own in the majors, Feliz has struggled in the extreme early going in Triple-A. His strike out rate is down to 18.7% and he has walked the exact same amount, 18.7%. Feliz turns 21 today (May 2), which makes him one of the youngest pitchers at the level, and his stuff hasn't changed. His offspeed stuff still needs time to develop, but for someone with Feliz' skill, that seems likely. People may have gotten a little too ahead of themselves cementing Feliz as a top 10 prospect this offseason, he still carries a fair amount of risk.
3. Justin Smoak - The Astros gave the Rangers a gift last June when they passed on the former University of South Carolina slugger to take Stanford catcher Jason Castro. A gifted defensive first baseman Smoak is still known for his bat. After destroying SEC pitching for three years, Smoak scored 595.9 on my college ranking system -- anything over 480 gives a guy a good shot at an MLB career. Combining patience, power and elite contact ability in college, Smoak has brought those name attributes to affiliated ball. Through 92 plate appearances at Double-A Smoak is hitting .351/.467/.568 good for a 1035 OPS. Smoak has posted a .217 IsoP in his first glimpse of advanced pitchers while walking 17.4% of the time and striking out just 10.9%. Smoak's BABIP may seem a little high at .367, he likely won't be able to post a number that high in the majors, but his LD% is an astonishing 29%. That .351 batting average is not due to squibbers and dying quails that happen to find a hole. Justin Smoak kills good pitching. He could make Chris Davis trade fodder very soon.
4. Elvis Andrus - The Rangers raised some eyebrows, including mine, when they gave Andrus the starting shortstop gig before spring training. Now the Rangers didn't really have an acceptable option at third base outside of Michael Young but Andrus was fresh off a 715 OPS in Double-A and had never played above that level. Currently hitting .250/.279/.357 in 61 plate appearances, Andrus has shown promise early in his big league career. His contact rate is pretty impressive for a young player who doesn't really walk and isn't a big power threat -- Andrus has struck out just 14.8% of the time and he's made contact with 92.3% of strikes he's swung at. Andrus has, so far, posted a career high IsoP of .107 and his hitting 23% line drives. He has failed to make a few routine throws, but his defensive potential is evident to anyone who watches him play. Andrus projects as a good defender whose lack of on-base ability could limit him to the bottom of the order.
5. Michael Main - A former first round pick who was as good of a prospect as a speedy center fielder as he was a pitcher, Main has always been known for his athleticism. While a rib injury limited him to under 60 innings last year, Main is a popular breakout pick this year. In limited action as a professional, Main has always shown great strikeout numbers (27.1% last year). He's off to a poor start his year with 16.5% K and 15.2% walks in just 14.2 innings, but there is reason to be patient with a player of Main's talent.
Honorable Mentions:
Maximiliano Ramirez - Max Ramirez remains one of the hardest prospects to get a good handle on. A catcher with patience and power, Ramirez can look like a potential All-Star in one light. But he can also look like a possible flop; poor defender who is prone to strikeout with unsustainably high BABIPs. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden already at the MLB level, it is hard to see Ramirez getting a shot as the Rangers full-time backstop. Those who believe in his bat think he will force his way into playing time, even if his future is not in Texas.
Taylor Teagarden - The defensively advanced Teagarden earns high praise for his play calling ability. Offensively, he's a selective hitter with a some pop who strikes out as often as any prospect you'll find, never less than 24.1% at any stop. He should be a good defender who will walk enough to keep a decent OBP, however his propensity to swing and miss may keep Teagarden from establishing himself as a big league starter.
Martin Perez - Perez got lots of buzz at the end of last year as the Rangers' latest -- and perhaps greatest -- Latin pitching sensation. A short lefthander from Venezuela with a nasty changeup, Perez draws natural comparisons to a young Johan Santana. Perez has a long road ahead of him to earn being mentioned in the same sentence as a Cy Young winner, but he's off to a good start. As a teenager in High-A, Perez has struck out 33.3% of hitters while walking 12.1% and inducing 52% ground balls in his first four games with the Hickory Crawdads.
Kasey Kiker - A former first round pick with a good arm, Kiker is a bit of a forgotten man in the loaded Rangers system. After a very solid showing in the California league last year (21.1% K and 7.0% BB) Kiker has got off to an uneven start in Double-A. Of his first four starts, two have been splendid and he has struggled in two. In the good ones, Kiker has gone 13 innings allowing just three hits and no runs striking out 12 and walking three. In the bad, 10 innings, 12 hits, seven runs, seven strikeouts and nine walks.
Blake Beavan - Another former first round pick, Beavan experienced some velocity loss last year but saw it rebound at the end of the season. Beavan's control set him apart from most young hurlers, as he walked a scant 4.2% of batters last year and just 5.5% so far this year. In a good early sign, Beavan's strikeout rate has gone up from 15.2% last year to 18.7% so far this year.
Wilfredo Boscan - Last year Boscan was not only one of the youngest pitchers in the Northwest league, he was one of the best. Striking out 24.6% and walking 3.9% of batters who were usually two or three years older. Starting the year in High-A, Boscan hasn't missed a beat, striking out 23.8% and walking 4.8% while upping his ground ball rate from 51% last year to 54% so far in 2009. Boscan could move way up prospect charts this year.
Julio Borbon - There are some things Borbon can do very well and some he can't. Blessed with great speed, Borbon shows great range defensively in center field and is a terror on the base paths. While Borbon is a terrific contact hitter (9.7% K this year) he rarely walks (5.0% last year) and has very little power (seven total home runs in his minor league career). He's a bottom-of-the-order hitter but a good enough defender at a key position to be at least a valuable fourth outfielder in the show.
Engle Beltre - Rarely is the gap between potential and production as wide as it with Beltre. A fantastic athlete with five-tool potential, Beltre did show good improvement in with his contact rates last year (down to 17.5% from 24.9% in 2007). As gifted as he his, Beltre almost never walks (2.5% last year) and has shown only modest in game power (.120 IsoP last year). If he can put it all together, he's an MVP. However that seems very unlikely right now.
Marcus Lemon - The son of former major leaguer, Chet Lemon, Marcus Lemon has been quietly productive. Off to a hot start this year, .324/.356/.456 as a 21-year-old in Double-A, Lemon gets high marks for his baseball intelligence. While his strikeout rate has gone from solid (18.7% in 2007) to very impressive (13.4% in 2008) to even better (11.0% this year), unfortunately fewer whiffs seem to have come at the expense of walks. Lemon's walk rate has gone down from 15.8% in 2006 to 10.5% in 2007 to 8.9 in 2008 to just 5.5% so far this year. The Rangers infield seems to be set for the foreseeable future with Ian Kinsler at second, Elvis Andrus at short, Michael Young at third, and Chris Davis/Justin Smoak at first. Lemon may have to get traded to another organization in order to start, but he wouldn't be the first player the Rangers traded who went onto good things.
Contact Lincoln Hamilton at lhamilton@projectprospect.com.